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Engineer Guy's avatar

Just read a great article from @The Brawl Street Journal where a German research institute shows clearly that the green claims about EVs depend a lot on where they are made and the CO2 content embedded in the car. For instance, China’s CO2 generated per ton steel is ~ 2.5X that of European steel. Once again, the reason that many things from China are cheap is that they generate the pollution over there, but in the case of global CO2, it comes back in the end. See Brawl Street Journal recent post entitled “Autosterben”.

Gene Frenkle's avatar

Correct, so when Bush negotiated China into the WTO in December 2001 shipping manufacturing jobs to China was an aspect of his energy policy to head off the inevitable energy crisis. So the other three important aspects were getting Iraq to 10 mbd and then developing Qatar’s LNG export industry and then obviously regime change in Iran. Unfortunately Iraq oil production actually declined and Katrina caused an energy shock in North America and prices got too high too fast. Now the high energy prices had the effect of making alternatives more economical which is how fracking became economically viable.

ban nock's avatar

I think temps will rise far faster than most people imagine and I also think there is very little the developed world can do about it. I just asked Claude how many households in East, South, and Southeast Asia are currently without AC and would benefit from having it. The numbers were way over a billion new units, and the AC tends to run for much longer periods than we are used to, in many places it would run all the time, 24/7.

I've lived in the tropics without AC, far from the ocean but with very high humidity. It's hot. Much hotter than Europe or here. There comes a point where the humidity is so high, and the temperature is so hot, that water won't evaporate off your body. Many people will die and those who live will want to have AC, and who can blame them.

I'm sure we will reduce our carbon footprint from transportation and electrical generation to near zero. What I'm not sure about is what the world will be like then. I will say I'd never bet against the human race, we have ways to invent and innovate and our abilities seem to be accelerating. I'll be checking out long before we figure it out.