Excellent post. We do have a framework in place for this - they are called export control laws. The challenge is setting the boundaries and enforcement (neither of which has been happening for years with the exception of very particular technologies). These laws already provide for civil and criminal penalties with regard to transfer of information as well as articles and materials to persons and companies, as well as specified countries. So we don't need to reinvent the wheel, but we do need to stop selling the rope.
Fine but the big strategic error is not engaging Russia and India in the struggle. Instead we are trying to defeat Russia and force a reluctant India into supporting that effort. All for the sake of the EU/UK who are useless at best and hostile at worst. Nixon had a very good reason for enlisting China in the struggle against the Soviets and it works in reverse too.
"The Trump campaign ran on the promise of being more attuned to the dangers of unfettered globalization than any administration in memory."
Don't you people get tired of lying through sin of omission? All Trump did was promise not to undo the existing export controls that the Biden administration had put in place. The October 2022 and October 2023 export controls restricted A100, H100, and the yet-to-be launched Blackwell chips (if you recall, news of the Blackwell platform leaked in 2022 so NVIDIA announced it formally shortly after). In Dec of 2024, before Trump even took office, the Biden admin extended the export controls to include HBM memory.
Oh, and if the U.S needs to prevent a unified front against Chinese attainment of AI technology, how does slapping punitive tariffs on countries like S. Korea, Taiwan, and Japan that produce key components for AI supercomputers actually help?
The HBM production dominace you mention is probably the most underappreciated part of our AI chip advantge. Even if China could fab advanced nodes, they'd still be bottlnecked by memory bandwidth. Keeping that supply chain secure shoud be a top priorty alongside export controls.
Absolutely 100% correct. Eventually, we need to learn that the Chinese have done everything they can to demonstrate to us that they have no intention of coexisting. They seek dominance by any means necessary.
Gotta belly laugh on this one. Let's recall what Don has shown us regarding his trade policy. He just pardoned CZ, the Chinese crypto criminal convicted of laundering money for Hamas, child abusers, and various other terrorist/unsavory groups, but only after CZ facilitated a couple billion dollars being deposited into Don's stable coin/pocket. I guess enrichment of the dear leader is the "new" right's version of trickle down economics. Of course Don now claims to not know who CZ is...what if he's right? He has placed tariffs on Brazil, in spite of our trade surplus with them, because he's pissed their government is prosecuting their former president, Mr Bolsonaro-a fellow coup plotter. He upped tariffs on Canada because of his pique over a silly TV ad featuring Reagan. He's tariffed Ukraine but not Russia. At least he got us back to status quo on soybean exports, who knows what he had to give up to get back to even from a problem he created. Art of the deal I guess:)
His policies toward China are so incoherent that Wall Street literally invented an investment strategery to cash in on them. They dubbed it taco tariffing... Not surprising from a man who still, to this day, brags publicly about "acing" a cognitive test meant to test for dementia.
So maybe Mr Griswold is right, and Don has an actual plan. I understand the desire of Commonplace to retrofit an intellectual framework around this circus. Maybe Don is engaging in 4D chess, and us mere mortals can't comprehend his clever tactics. Maybe. But my money says his personal piggybank, random gas pains, and emotional fragility drive his policy choices far more than the national interest... I can't wait to see what that aging, angry, addled brain comes up with at 82.
And you can be sure that CZ, now fresh off his pardon, will gleefully allow his crypto trading firm, Binance, to launder the money of those who are now going to try to sell China NVIDIA processors on the black market.
What is the precedent for a leading industrial power quarantining its technology from another power, short of permanent hostilities (which comes with its own problems)?
Excellent post. We do have a framework in place for this - they are called export control laws. The challenge is setting the boundaries and enforcement (neither of which has been happening for years with the exception of very particular technologies). These laws already provide for civil and criminal penalties with regard to transfer of information as well as articles and materials to persons and companies, as well as specified countries. So we don't need to reinvent the wheel, but we do need to stop selling the rope.
Fine but the big strategic error is not engaging Russia and India in the struggle. Instead we are trying to defeat Russia and force a reluctant India into supporting that effort. All for the sake of the EU/UK who are useless at best and hostile at worst. Nixon had a very good reason for enlisting China in the struggle against the Soviets and it works in reverse too.
“America needs a plan”. From Trump? On technology? That’s rich. Still waiting on the healthcare plan.
Don't worry! I've been told he has the concepts of a plan.
"The Trump campaign ran on the promise of being more attuned to the dangers of unfettered globalization than any administration in memory."
Don't you people get tired of lying through sin of omission? All Trump did was promise not to undo the existing export controls that the Biden administration had put in place. The October 2022 and October 2023 export controls restricted A100, H100, and the yet-to-be launched Blackwell chips (if you recall, news of the Blackwell platform leaked in 2022 so NVIDIA announced it formally shortly after). In Dec of 2024, before Trump even took office, the Biden admin extended the export controls to include HBM memory.
Oh, and if the U.S needs to prevent a unified front against Chinese attainment of AI technology, how does slapping punitive tariffs on countries like S. Korea, Taiwan, and Japan that produce key components for AI supercomputers actually help?
The HBM production dominace you mention is probably the most underappreciated part of our AI chip advantge. Even if China could fab advanced nodes, they'd still be bottlnecked by memory bandwidth. Keeping that supply chain secure shoud be a top priorty alongside export controls.
Biden put export controls for HBM in place in Dec 2024.
Absolutely 100% correct. Eventually, we need to learn that the Chinese have done everything they can to demonstrate to us that they have no intention of coexisting. They seek dominance by any means necessary.
Gotta belly laugh on this one. Let's recall what Don has shown us regarding his trade policy. He just pardoned CZ, the Chinese crypto criminal convicted of laundering money for Hamas, child abusers, and various other terrorist/unsavory groups, but only after CZ facilitated a couple billion dollars being deposited into Don's stable coin/pocket. I guess enrichment of the dear leader is the "new" right's version of trickle down economics. Of course Don now claims to not know who CZ is...what if he's right? He has placed tariffs on Brazil, in spite of our trade surplus with them, because he's pissed their government is prosecuting their former president, Mr Bolsonaro-a fellow coup plotter. He upped tariffs on Canada because of his pique over a silly TV ad featuring Reagan. He's tariffed Ukraine but not Russia. At least he got us back to status quo on soybean exports, who knows what he had to give up to get back to even from a problem he created. Art of the deal I guess:)
His policies toward China are so incoherent that Wall Street literally invented an investment strategery to cash in on them. They dubbed it taco tariffing... Not surprising from a man who still, to this day, brags publicly about "acing" a cognitive test meant to test for dementia.
So maybe Mr Griswold is right, and Don has an actual plan. I understand the desire of Commonplace to retrofit an intellectual framework around this circus. Maybe Don is engaging in 4D chess, and us mere mortals can't comprehend his clever tactics. Maybe. But my money says his personal piggybank, random gas pains, and emotional fragility drive his policy choices far more than the national interest... I can't wait to see what that aging, angry, addled brain comes up with at 82.
Good luck America.
And you can be sure that CZ, now fresh off his pardon, will gleefully allow his crypto trading firm, Binance, to launder the money of those who are now going to try to sell China NVIDIA processors on the black market.
China is doing fine, they just copy everything we design 🤔🤔🤔
What is the precedent for a leading industrial power quarantining its technology from another power, short of permanent hostilities (which comes with its own problems)?