Illegal immigration looks good in the economic data, but not to American citizens.
Hi Oren -- I actually did publish a post that estimates what nonfarm payroll growth would have looked like this year if the foreign-born population declined as much as CPS shows: roughly 2 million fewer jobs over 6 months. The post is here:
https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/reported-multi-million-decline-us-immigrants-just-doesnt-add
There is a supporting spreadsheet that lays out all the calculations and lets you simulate a different immigration change if you want. Jed
Hi Oren -- I actually did publish a post that estimates what nonfarm payroll growth would have looked like this year if the foreign-born population declined as much as CPS shows: roughly 2 million fewer jobs over 6 months. The post is here:
https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/reported-multi-million-decline-us-immigrants-just-doesnt-add
There is a supporting spreadsheet that lays out all the calculations and lets you simulate a different immigration change if you want. Jed