One thing I do agree with Cass on: ”If you ran a convenience store and repeatedly sold hardcore pornography to a nine-year-old, you would lose your store and probably go to prison. The same should go for the tech overlords.”
I like the idea that the USA should legislate a trade policy that requires all countries, that export to the United States, to have a labor policy that guarantees workers the right to form unions and have wages and benefits equal to the U.S. workers who compete with them globally.
Is Oren serious? Ray Dalio? How about Justin Sun? If he's so concerned about China, Oren will surely soon speak out about Sun, the Chinese crypto criminal who has dumped at least $75 million directly into Don's pocket through Don's corrupt crypto caper, in return for the SEC backing off charges against him. Pay to play anyone? Nothing like good old fashioned corruption to turbocharge an economy:) Then again, the "new" right hasn't proven very new when forced to govern instead of lob campaign criticism, witness the massive deficits and huge wealth transfer to plutocrats inherent in their crowning economic achievement, the BBB.
Meanwhile, wouldn't an American government serious about confronting China rally the western world to confront them jointly so as to offset and indeed "trump" their scale advantage? Instead we drive our friends away with taco tariffs, juvenile insults and election meddling. Maybe Oren should bone up on JD's Munich lecture to Europe on free speech and election integrity. It was humiliating, given this administrations record on the same. As was JD's support of the neo Nazi AfD party.
Finally, why is Oren so doggone insecure? It makes me smile. He always has a gratuitous shot at someone who has the benefit of life beyond his elite think tank second guessing. Perhaps Oren feels inadequate? This time his target is not an economist who has faced the imperfect choices and eternal second guessing that accompany actual governance. Relax Oren, trust your ideas, no need to be so defensive. And a tip, be careful lecturing George Will on writing craft, he's achieved just a smidge more prominence than you...
You may not raise your own chickens, but I bet you don't work at Chick-fil-A either. If you have a stable, socially contributory, financially rewarding job, please consider the importance for such employment for all US workers. While tariffs can raise revenues in the short term (they are), they can encourage industrial reshoring in the long term (also happening).
Ray Dalio, he has been sucking up the east insider money from China since the 1980's. One of the first in there for the easy money. Him and his family have been tight with the CCP elites and their princelings for the last 50 years. Serious insider trader going on there! lol Ray! please stop. Go to a Caribbean Island, buy it, and live happily ever after just quit lecturing us on how smart you are, please stop. Quiet.
"George Will has discovered the wonders of industrial policy." George is no different than any of the others. They all will be saying yes I was for all of this, saw it early, called it, I'm brilliant join my fund buy my book etc. etc. etc. Will sound like all the experts a few years after the 2007/08 crash. They all saw it and called it and got in front of it. Same will happen here with the new economics folding out form the old system that was dying and going dead. George is just like the rest of them, don't fun him, he's the norm.
The US Court of International Trade needs to be revamped again. It was revamped in its present form when Reagan and his disciples took over in 1980 to make it more "Free Trade" friendly if you look at its history. All politics here as usual.
Jeff, your Dalio comments might make sense if Oren likewise spoke out against Don's crypto corruption. Never have we had a sitting prez engage in this level of open corruption. Hundreds of millions directly to his family.
Will is irrelevant. Don, Oren, Marjorie Taylor Green et al are today's elite. They ARE the establishment, have been for years. Today's elites use yesterday's elites as punching bags to recruit donors. It's easy, mindless, but lucrative.
China aside, what do ppl think enables Russia's military production capacity? Its State Owned Enterprises. Higher quantities produced, and better value (relatively cheap drones take out western made equipment costing millions/billions). Even on a plane vs plane basis, the costs and value is much better for Russia.
“Consumption Requires Production. Michael Pettis had an excellent Financial Times column (and Twitter thread) arguing, “We must rethink the conventional wisdom that the purpose of trade in the US is mainly to lower the price of imports. Ultimately, rising consumption can only be sustained by rising production. That is why for the US to improve long-term prosperity, it must recognise that the only way trade boosts domestic welfare and consumption is by boosting domestic production. In the end, it is only rising productivity growth that sustainably drives consumption growth.” “
But why does the production have to be domestic? I don’t raise my own chickens but I consume a lot of eggs. Pettit made a slight error in his initial premise. The purpose of trade is not to lower the price of imports, it’s to lower the price of everything, which may or may not be a good idea. Plus, it’s true there are security issues to trade, like there is ensuring the supply of anything.
“But, see, encouraging a shift in purchases away from countries with higher tariffs is, like, the point of tariffs. Discovering that your model of tariff impacts is wrong because tariffs are having the impact they are supposed to have isn’t a new “theory,” it’s just a reminder that most economic models forecasting tariff disaster entirely fail to account for the way tariffs work.”
That is a natural effect of tariffs. But if that’s the main purpose, then using them as a revenue replacement seems sort of…stupid. Trump’s two goals for tariffs are completely contradictory.
There must be a way to meet America's needs without being subject to (built-in) profit motive and graft that informs the likelihood that something is produced, the quantities in which something is produced, production cost(s) and market price(s). The American Government lacks overwhelming domestic ownership of financial institutions, energy utilities, military industrial production, critial minerals production, transport infrastructure, etc. It lacks breadth of exclusive (or near exclusive) domain necessary for effective planning, even if limited to sectors considered critical/essential.
One thing I do agree with Cass on: ”If you ran a convenience store and repeatedly sold hardcore pornography to a nine-year-old, you would lose your store and probably go to prison. The same should go for the tech overlords.”
I like the idea that the USA should legislate a trade policy that requires all countries, that export to the United States, to have a labor policy that guarantees workers the right to form unions and have wages and benefits equal to the U.S. workers who compete with them globally.
Oh, I get it now, the high Fentanyl tariff on China will facilitate onshore manufacturing. That makes sense.
Is Oren serious? Ray Dalio? How about Justin Sun? If he's so concerned about China, Oren will surely soon speak out about Sun, the Chinese crypto criminal who has dumped at least $75 million directly into Don's pocket through Don's corrupt crypto caper, in return for the SEC backing off charges against him. Pay to play anyone? Nothing like good old fashioned corruption to turbocharge an economy:) Then again, the "new" right hasn't proven very new when forced to govern instead of lob campaign criticism, witness the massive deficits and huge wealth transfer to plutocrats inherent in their crowning economic achievement, the BBB.
Meanwhile, wouldn't an American government serious about confronting China rally the western world to confront them jointly so as to offset and indeed "trump" their scale advantage? Instead we drive our friends away with taco tariffs, juvenile insults and election meddling. Maybe Oren should bone up on JD's Munich lecture to Europe on free speech and election integrity. It was humiliating, given this administrations record on the same. As was JD's support of the neo Nazi AfD party.
Finally, why is Oren so doggone insecure? It makes me smile. He always has a gratuitous shot at someone who has the benefit of life beyond his elite think tank second guessing. Perhaps Oren feels inadequate? This time his target is not an economist who has faced the imperfect choices and eternal second guessing that accompany actual governance. Relax Oren, trust your ideas, no need to be so defensive. And a tip, be careful lecturing George Will on writing craft, he's achieved just a smidge more prominence than you...
Good luck America.
You may not raise your own chickens, but I bet you don't work at Chick-fil-A either. If you have a stable, socially contributory, financially rewarding job, please consider the importance for such employment for all US workers. While tariffs can raise revenues in the short term (they are), they can encourage industrial reshoring in the long term (also happening).
Ray Dalio, he has been sucking up the east insider money from China since the 1980's. One of the first in there for the easy money. Him and his family have been tight with the CCP elites and their princelings for the last 50 years. Serious insider trader going on there! lol Ray! please stop. Go to a Caribbean Island, buy it, and live happily ever after just quit lecturing us on how smart you are, please stop. Quiet.
"George Will has discovered the wonders of industrial policy." George is no different than any of the others. They all will be saying yes I was for all of this, saw it early, called it, I'm brilliant join my fund buy my book etc. etc. etc. Will sound like all the experts a few years after the 2007/08 crash. They all saw it and called it and got in front of it. Same will happen here with the new economics folding out form the old system that was dying and going dead. George is just like the rest of them, don't fun him, he's the norm.
The US Court of International Trade needs to be revamped again. It was revamped in its present form when Reagan and his disciples took over in 1980 to make it more "Free Trade" friendly if you look at its history. All politics here as usual.
Jeff, your Dalio comments might make sense if Oren likewise spoke out against Don's crypto corruption. Never have we had a sitting prez engage in this level of open corruption. Hundreds of millions directly to his family.
Will is irrelevant. Don, Oren, Marjorie Taylor Green et al are today's elite. They ARE the establishment, have been for years. Today's elites use yesterday's elites as punching bags to recruit donors. It's easy, mindless, but lucrative.
China aside, what do ppl think enables Russia's military production capacity? Its State Owned Enterprises. Higher quantities produced, and better value (relatively cheap drones take out western made equipment costing millions/billions). Even on a plane vs plane basis, the costs and value is much better for Russia.
Sending this to my son who just graduated with a degree in economics. He has been concerned about the tariffs. I’m trying to keep him informed!
“Consumption Requires Production. Michael Pettis had an excellent Financial Times column (and Twitter thread) arguing, “We must rethink the conventional wisdom that the purpose of trade in the US is mainly to lower the price of imports. Ultimately, rising consumption can only be sustained by rising production. That is why for the US to improve long-term prosperity, it must recognise that the only way trade boosts domestic welfare and consumption is by boosting domestic production. In the end, it is only rising productivity growth that sustainably drives consumption growth.” “
But why does the production have to be domestic? I don’t raise my own chickens but I consume a lot of eggs. Pettit made a slight error in his initial premise. The purpose of trade is not to lower the price of imports, it’s to lower the price of everything, which may or may not be a good idea. Plus, it’s true there are security issues to trade, like there is ensuring the supply of anything.
“But, see, encouraging a shift in purchases away from countries with higher tariffs is, like, the point of tariffs. Discovering that your model of tariff impacts is wrong because tariffs are having the impact they are supposed to have isn’t a new “theory,” it’s just a reminder that most economic models forecasting tariff disaster entirely fail to account for the way tariffs work.”
That is a natural effect of tariffs. But if that’s the main purpose, then using them as a revenue replacement seems sort of…stupid. Trump’s two goals for tariffs are completely contradictory.
The US Gov should seek to limit its dependence on non-governmental domestic entities as much as it should limit dependence on any foreign entity.
There must be a way to meet America's needs without being subject to (built-in) profit motive and graft that informs the likelihood that something is produced, the quantities in which something is produced, production cost(s) and market price(s). The American Government lacks overwhelming domestic ownership of financial institutions, energy utilities, military industrial production, critial minerals production, transport infrastructure, etc. It lacks breadth of exclusive (or near exclusive) domain necessary for effective planning, even if limited to sectors considered critical/essential.