The tariffs are not “reciprocal.” They were unilaterally imposed by Trump. That makes a rational discussion of preferred U.S. trade policies going forward more difficult. Walling ourselves off from China is a questionable policy choice. Our 330,000,000 population is about a third of their one billion population. Their consumer middle class continues to grow. They already excel in manufacturing EVs, solar panels, and more. We need to figure out how to trade with them to our mutual benefit. Focusing on trade, not military capabilities makes sense in the long run for both countries. While reaching a deal is not in any way a certain outcome, win-win negations are the best path forward for both countries. We should be in a position to clearly communicate our negotiating positions. The chaotic Trump administration has so far been entirely incapable of performing that task. Doing so would require them to take into consideration the views of corporate leaders and, at least, middle of the road Democratic Party leaders, if we are to re-set our trade policy with a life-span beyond the next few years.
If Americans can live without most items for 3-5 years until new supply chains are made in friendly countries then it can work. They don’t like suffering though. Where will they buy all the stuff they want? You can’t buy baby goods like strollers elsewhere? Lamps? Pharma supplies? Masks and PPE for hospitals? Cheap electronics? Printing books? Cell phones? Plastic moulding for things? Lego? Furniture? China can tell its people to stay home rest for five years without major issue. During COVID people had to stay in a little apartment for 6 months and they did it fine. In the 2008 financial crises the migrant workers when home in the countryside to relax. Can America? USA and its alias, if they have any left, will need remake all these supply chains for most products. Labor intense products like shoes cannot be made in USA as robots can’t do it yet so you will need partner with an India and Latin America. You will need lots of raw materials and critical minerals refined. Urkaine and Russia are at war, corrupt, and not dependable and destroyed mostly so getting them there will take 10 years. What not partner with Canada while they are still willing to listen. I have no problem with Canada joining USA but you need discuss the terms in a mature way, otherwise we may just go and partner with Europe and China instead. What if Canada lets 500 million Chinese immigrate and make Canada into a super power?
The problem with your approach is China is developing markets with the rest of the world, think Africa, Asia Latin America, etc. and is fast approaching the situation where it no longer needs the US market. It is therefore unlikely that your approach will produce the results you want.
I feel sorry for Oren. I think he's a well-intentioned young guy trying to do good things with bad ideas. His opening sentence reveals much ("rather quiet on the tariff front"). This means he's missed the massive contortions our businesses are already engaged in, and the alienation we've invited as we stiff arm our long-time allies. After all, if China is the ballgame, wouldn't a rational human cobble together a group of allies to confront China, rather than pitching our allies overboard? But hey, at least Don elected a liberal PM in Canada! Now that DonOrenomics has been implemented, Oren has become a human pretzel in an attempt to retain a modicum of credibility and maintain the support of his funders. But, he bought the ticket with Don, now he gets to take the ride:). Meanwhile, Don's continuing negotiation with himself continues apace, he just moments ago backed off his own auto tariffs. I just stocked up on popcorn, grown in America, I've always been a karma kinda guy...
Trying to give the poor soul a break, he has tough sledding ahead. More than any other economist, Oren will forever be tethered to this tariff gambit. That’s grim. A hundred years on we still remember Smoot and Hawley. Might our grandchildren learn of Oren as they study DonOrenomics?
Really difficult to take this post seriously- the premise being that Trump would do anything that isn’t inherently corrupt, mean-spirited or both is too ridiculous to continue reading. Come back when you actually put some consideration into the character of the president into your recommendations on his actions.
You screw up world trade with economic terrorism, American corporations screw the citizens again is what your saying because they listen to economic terrorists like your argument is . Inflation set to climb 37%because of this ding bat...Your as honest as Trump.
He is now known as the man who screwed everyone, including his supporters...
Bankers and your group are repugnant .. STOP All military spending till you've spent 2trillion on health care and infrastructure and science based education for your citizens fool.... China leads in 57of 64 areas of technology. US only leads in 5 this is why you are losing, you don't spend on education properly and you've spent 14+ Trillion in 20 years on fighting wars for Israel.... Your reality is fake.
Well I certainly hope it goes as Oren suggests. Decoupling from China is important. Left to themselves our corporations can't do it. To level the playing field, there have to be uniform rules for whichever sector is being regulated. I'd like to see congress take away trade status, China is not the good guys. For security we need to rehome a majority of all industries.
Individually the Chinese people are great, intelligent, hard working, they make great friends, I lived a year in Yunnan way up north close to the border of Burma and the old border of Tibet. Some aspects of state control of critical industries have worked well, their form of government is good at somethings. They've tens of thousands of miles of high speed rail. GDP growth the envy of the world. That said they are still authoritarian, corrupt, even genocidal to minorities, of which there are many besides Tibetan and Uyghur that aren't as famous..
Any great argument from a third-party to the arguers, should start with the strengths & weaknesses of each. In this case, nobody learns anything about the existing state of Chinese manufacturing capabilities, especially how advanced their robotics & AI actually already is — and therefore how could anybody judge the solutions provided in this article. Tell the complete true facts and capabilities and vulnerabilities on both sides, and then present your argument — way more believable story.
We’ve made our own corrupt bed in a stupid desire to maintain global hegemony, and now the bills are coming due, and we must lie down in it, while it burns.
We are the evil empire. Until we get Gaza right, all the economic policy masturbation by ‘experts’ and pundits is the proverbial bucket of spit.
Decouple with china assumes that we have alternatives. Covid taught us how dependent we are on china but we have not taken steps for even critical supplies such as pharma. This is because our leaders and our corporations are shortsighted and corrupt. For you to suggest just severing all ties with China ignores the realities that there will be severe shortages, price increases and civil unrest. Do you think billionaires such as Trump musk and others actually care about any of that. The answer is no because the goal is to create unrest so that they can concentrate power in their own hands . The result of your approach will be that the wealthy will be able to afford critical products and supplies and more class warfare.. What you are recommending makes no sense. We need to develop our infrastructure and alternate supply chain including determining what we can build at home with people who want to work (which my guess is will not be many given that millennials don’t even want to go back to the work in offices, let alone factories). Perhaps revisiting our immigration policies is also necessary to get the workers we need to do the jobs that the entitled Americans do not want to do. Decouple with china yes but dont cut off our noses in the process
In economics you need to have both short and long term plans. The long term plan - re-industrialization of the USA - is clear. However, the steps towards it are far from clear. 100% tariffs looks more like a Hail Mary than a plan.
@orencass what's the point of having a comments section if you don't actually listen & respond? The response to this post is overwhelmingly in the vein of "we don't trust this evil man with his incompetent administration to successfully carry out any meaningful policies."
What's your response???
Or is this substack just your audition for a job in this clown show of an administration?
Don't hold your breath Mike. Oren's theories have met the real world, and I suspect he doesn't want to peer out of his foxhole. He's chosen his calling card, it's attempting to put an intellectual veneer on Don's economic agenda. Perhaps this is because Don is the only pol foolish enough to enact a major tariff regime, perhaps it's an attempt to remain relevant to the conversation now that his benefactor Mitt has been excommunicated from their party. It was easier for him when he could just lob grenades at Summers and Furman, spout theory, and complain that the world was not perfect. But of course, Summers and Furman have actually served in government, and hence understand the inherent limits all administrations face. As I said earlier, Oren bought the ticket for Trumpism, now he's gonna take the ride, and his legacy is forever tethered to Don's tariff gambit. And since Don operates as a mob boss, he's now unable to leave the family unless he wants to risk a horse head in his bed. He's just another elite who's been unwilling to speak truth regarding the threats Don poses. I've added his name to the list of elites who have failed the test of leadership in this grave time.
wow Oren you bring out the trolls and bots! There are many people and groups that are frightened of what you have to say. The more you bring out these trolls and bots as you are doing tells you your ideas are effective and on point. Keep up the great work. Thank you.
Oren an excellent sane approach to decoupling with tariffs and legislation. Our country has been devastated by economic globalism. Lots of US workers have lost the American dream so the few greedy capitalists make the profits. The result for the US has been a real net negative. The US needs to restore more of its critical manufacturing and I like your plan. Problem is that Trump doesn’t think rationally. Oren you should become his advisor. Perhaps you can be a positive influence on Trump and help save us from this chaos he is creating.
He could absolutely do this.
Unfortunately, he is entirely too stupid to do this. Also, he doesn't really care about any of it. He just wants China to kiss his ring.
It's all he's ever cared about.
Read the recent Atlantic interview with Trump to understand how he “thinks” https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2025/06/trump-second-term-comeback/682573/
I wish I could disagree with you.
The tariffs are not “reciprocal.” They were unilaterally imposed by Trump. That makes a rational discussion of preferred U.S. trade policies going forward more difficult. Walling ourselves off from China is a questionable policy choice. Our 330,000,000 population is about a third of their one billion population. Their consumer middle class continues to grow. They already excel in manufacturing EVs, solar panels, and more. We need to figure out how to trade with them to our mutual benefit. Focusing on trade, not military capabilities makes sense in the long run for both countries. While reaching a deal is not in any way a certain outcome, win-win negations are the best path forward for both countries. We should be in a position to clearly communicate our negotiating positions. The chaotic Trump administration has so far been entirely incapable of performing that task. Doing so would require them to take into consideration the views of corporate leaders and, at least, middle of the road Democratic Party leaders, if we are to re-set our trade policy with a life-span beyond the next few years.
If Americans can live without most items for 3-5 years until new supply chains are made in friendly countries then it can work. They don’t like suffering though. Where will they buy all the stuff they want? You can’t buy baby goods like strollers elsewhere? Lamps? Pharma supplies? Masks and PPE for hospitals? Cheap electronics? Printing books? Cell phones? Plastic moulding for things? Lego? Furniture? China can tell its people to stay home rest for five years without major issue. During COVID people had to stay in a little apartment for 6 months and they did it fine. In the 2008 financial crises the migrant workers when home in the countryside to relax. Can America? USA and its alias, if they have any left, will need remake all these supply chains for most products. Labor intense products like shoes cannot be made in USA as robots can’t do it yet so you will need partner with an India and Latin America. You will need lots of raw materials and critical minerals refined. Urkaine and Russia are at war, corrupt, and not dependable and destroyed mostly so getting them there will take 10 years. What not partner with Canada while they are still willing to listen. I have no problem with Canada joining USA but you need discuss the terms in a mature way, otherwise we may just go and partner with Europe and China instead. What if Canada lets 500 million Chinese immigrate and make Canada into a super power?
Why would you think this is possible? In the Midterms the majority for the GOP will be gone. The American people are not that stupid.
Hire a Clown get a circus.
What you said we should do is what we have been trying to do for the last 30 years. It's a failed policy. Please stop.
"President Trump has already shown that he is willing to make course corrections as the responses to his actions materialize"
That's an *extremely* charitable way of describing Trump's penchant for backing down when challenged.
The problem with your approach is China is developing markets with the rest of the world, think Africa, Asia Latin America, etc. and is fast approaching the situation where it no longer needs the US market. It is therefore unlikely that your approach will produce the results you want.
I feel sorry for Oren. I think he's a well-intentioned young guy trying to do good things with bad ideas. His opening sentence reveals much ("rather quiet on the tariff front"). This means he's missed the massive contortions our businesses are already engaged in, and the alienation we've invited as we stiff arm our long-time allies. After all, if China is the ballgame, wouldn't a rational human cobble together a group of allies to confront China, rather than pitching our allies overboard? But hey, at least Don elected a liberal PM in Canada! Now that DonOrenomics has been implemented, Oren has become a human pretzel in an attempt to retain a modicum of credibility and maintain the support of his funders. But, he bought the ticket with Don, now he gets to take the ride:). Meanwhile, Don's continuing negotiation with himself continues apace, he just moments ago backed off his own auto tariffs. I just stocked up on popcorn, grown in America, I've always been a karma kinda guy...
"I think he's a well-intentioned young guy . . . ."
Oren is 42 years old.
Trying to give the poor soul a break, he has tough sledding ahead. More than any other economist, Oren will forever be tethered to this tariff gambit. That’s grim. A hundred years on we still remember Smoot and Hawley. Might our grandchildren learn of Oren as they study DonOrenomics?
Really difficult to take this post seriously- the premise being that Trump would do anything that isn’t inherently corrupt, mean-spirited or both is too ridiculous to continue reading. Come back when you actually put some consideration into the character of the president into your recommendations on his actions.
You screw up world trade with economic terrorism, American corporations screw the citizens again is what your saying because they listen to economic terrorists like your argument is . Inflation set to climb 37%because of this ding bat...Your as honest as Trump.
He is now known as the man who screwed everyone, including his supporters...
Bankers and your group are repugnant .. STOP All military spending till you've spent 2trillion on health care and infrastructure and science based education for your citizens fool.... China leads in 57of 64 areas of technology. US only leads in 5 this is why you are losing, you don't spend on education properly and you've spent 14+ Trillion in 20 years on fighting wars for Israel.... Your reality is fake.
Well I certainly hope it goes as Oren suggests. Decoupling from China is important. Left to themselves our corporations can't do it. To level the playing field, there have to be uniform rules for whichever sector is being regulated. I'd like to see congress take away trade status, China is not the good guys. For security we need to rehome a majority of all industries.
Individually the Chinese people are great, intelligent, hard working, they make great friends, I lived a year in Yunnan way up north close to the border of Burma and the old border of Tibet. Some aspects of state control of critical industries have worked well, their form of government is good at somethings. They've tens of thousands of miles of high speed rail. GDP growth the envy of the world. That said they are still authoritarian, corrupt, even genocidal to minorities, of which there are many besides Tibetan and Uyghur that aren't as famous..
Any great argument from a third-party to the arguers, should start with the strengths & weaknesses of each. In this case, nobody learns anything about the existing state of Chinese manufacturing capabilities, especially how advanced their robotics & AI actually already is — and therefore how could anybody judge the solutions provided in this article. Tell the complete true facts and capabilities and vulnerabilities on both sides, and then present your argument — way more believable story.
We’ve made our own corrupt bed in a stupid desire to maintain global hegemony, and now the bills are coming due, and we must lie down in it, while it burns.
We are the evil empire. Until we get Gaza right, all the economic policy masturbation by ‘experts’ and pundits is the proverbial bucket of spit.
Decouple with china assumes that we have alternatives. Covid taught us how dependent we are on china but we have not taken steps for even critical supplies such as pharma. This is because our leaders and our corporations are shortsighted and corrupt. For you to suggest just severing all ties with China ignores the realities that there will be severe shortages, price increases and civil unrest. Do you think billionaires such as Trump musk and others actually care about any of that. The answer is no because the goal is to create unrest so that they can concentrate power in their own hands . The result of your approach will be that the wealthy will be able to afford critical products and supplies and more class warfare.. What you are recommending makes no sense. We need to develop our infrastructure and alternate supply chain including determining what we can build at home with people who want to work (which my guess is will not be many given that millennials don’t even want to go back to the work in offices, let alone factories). Perhaps revisiting our immigration policies is also necessary to get the workers we need to do the jobs that the entitled Americans do not want to do. Decouple with china yes but dont cut off our noses in the process
In economics you need to have both short and long term plans. The long term plan - re-industrialization of the USA - is clear. However, the steps towards it are far from clear. 100% tariffs looks more like a Hail Mary than a plan.
If Trump believes that manufacturing is the future in America, why is all of his family money going to cryptocurrency??????
@orencass what's the point of having a comments section if you don't actually listen & respond? The response to this post is overwhelmingly in the vein of "we don't trust this evil man with his incompetent administration to successfully carry out any meaningful policies."
What's your response???
Or is this substack just your audition for a job in this clown show of an administration?
Don't hold your breath Mike. Oren's theories have met the real world, and I suspect he doesn't want to peer out of his foxhole. He's chosen his calling card, it's attempting to put an intellectual veneer on Don's economic agenda. Perhaps this is because Don is the only pol foolish enough to enact a major tariff regime, perhaps it's an attempt to remain relevant to the conversation now that his benefactor Mitt has been excommunicated from their party. It was easier for him when he could just lob grenades at Summers and Furman, spout theory, and complain that the world was not perfect. But of course, Summers and Furman have actually served in government, and hence understand the inherent limits all administrations face. As I said earlier, Oren bought the ticket for Trumpism, now he's gonna take the ride, and his legacy is forever tethered to Don's tariff gambit. And since Don operates as a mob boss, he's now unable to leave the family unless he wants to risk a horse head in his bed. He's just another elite who's been unwilling to speak truth regarding the threats Don poses. I've added his name to the list of elites who have failed the test of leadership in this grave time.
wow Oren you bring out the trolls and bots! There are many people and groups that are frightened of what you have to say. The more you bring out these trolls and bots as you are doing tells you your ideas are effective and on point. Keep up the great work. Thank you.
Oren an excellent sane approach to decoupling with tariffs and legislation. Our country has been devastated by economic globalism. Lots of US workers have lost the American dream so the few greedy capitalists make the profits. The result for the US has been a real net negative. The US needs to restore more of its critical manufacturing and I like your plan. Problem is that Trump doesn’t think rationally. Oren you should become his advisor. Perhaps you can be a positive influence on Trump and help save us from this chaos he is creating.