I've read a few things Cass has written. To me, this is someone who's trying to square the circle of American political economy or just outright tipping it toward those who do well or extremely well.
Being a "conservative" has basically been the history of American dysfunction. Project 2025 and Heritage Foundation have been both cultural and economic disasters for America and, even more so, for Americans. After all, this is the force behind Trump's rise and his only slightly more insane policies.
There has not been a "Conservative" personality or politician or "project" that has actually bettered America and Americans since Eisenhower. The Libertarian component is singularly responsible for the deindustrialization of America. When I left to work in Germany and later Switzerland in the 80's and early '90's I was taking advantage of the need for techies. I worked for Daimler-Benz, IBM, Lufthansa and Ciba-Geigy in Germany and the original SwissBankCorp in Basel. I never worked for more than 7.5 hours/day and was given lunch for free and would have had 6 weeks paid vacation and 15 paid holidays a year if I chose to be an employee rather than a consultant. There were no American cars on the roads except for the occasional GI and no American goods except for airplanes and some weapons.
In both countries, everyone had excellent healthcare. I had an American friend and colleague who suffered a long series of health problems... first prostate cancer, then two episodes of brain cancer, then a severe bicycle accident... and he never had a co-pay, never had a premium rise and was even provided a "natural cure" at a spa for 3 months: not a single DMark/EURO. And he received income support. And he is alive today. If he lived here in the USA he would have died poor after the first episode. And that state is still true today.
And there were other features. I did have a car, but used it only for traveling around to places that weren't reachable by the comprehensive and affordable train system. Everything from bathrooms to airport general lounges were spotless. I have been back several times and my kid was a ML/AI professor at Tuebingen U. Some things have changed slightly for the worse, but still nothing approaching the 2nd/3rd world conditions that still prevail here.
As for H1B's, I ran fixed income and derivatives trading at virtually every NY investment bank over my career in the U.S. My last role was rebuilding/upgrading tech for GoldmanSachs' SecDB I NEVER HAD A MAJORITY NATIVE AMERICAN TEAM and almost all were H1Bs.
So why so many always? Because we have a shit education system. It's not built to fit people for a secure future in a particular trade or profession. It's a free-for-all degenerate version of the old English "Public" (aka PRIVATE) school system. We were living in the past even more than the Brits. And still largely are. And now the backlash comes. Not any reflection on what we keep doing wrong: free markets, private education bullshit. Now that horse has run its race. And instead of looking for the right fix, its combination of beggars' banquet and shark feeding frenzy. And multiple slaughters of all the golden-egg-laying geese that the Right in America (such as you) always cook up. For themselves.
Goldman Sachs average h1b salary comes in $30k higher then notorious h1b infosys and $40k higher then Tata consulting. So they’re not the worst abusers.
But even within Goldman there is huge variation in H1bs. The largest category is VP of software engineering, which averages $187k in salary. I’m sure if we could drill down to people working in New York that senior bankers interacted with you would get over $200k easy.
But the third and fourth largest categories for Goldman are associate and analyst, both under $100k. Analyst salaries are a mere $68k, with a low of $42k.
Thats pathetic for a full time employed worker, often in an expensive metro area.
Does Goldman Sachs really need to higher foreigners to work for poverty wages?
Ok, so you don't know anything about GS, even though I thought anyone who knew who GS would know this: Your base salary is a pittance and MEANINGLESS. Everyone works for the year-end bonus. Also, unless the H1Bs are fully remote, they are typically paid pretty well by the consulting company, but definitely not as well as full-timers at GS or any of the other IBs.
The average base salary of an investment banking analyst at Goldman is $118k. For an associate its $200k.
Even that might be out of date. There is an official Golden press release from 2021 saying that first year analysts base salary was being raised to $110k, second year to $125k.
I really don't think these H1Bs being brought in on $42k base salaries are getting $120k bonuses on average so that it evens out. Try to Occam's Razor this one.
While we're pointing out the many problems with our immigration system, I'll offer the following.
Our president-the founder, leader, and intellectual lodestar of the "new" right, has publicly uttered the following terms to describe immigrants and the immigration issue:
"Invasion, vermin, rapists, eating the pets, poisoning the blood, animals, infestation, shithole countries, bloodthirsty criminals, most violent people on earth, stone cold killers, the worst people."
These are terms used by authoritarians throughout history to dehumanize minority populations. They inspire hate, and serve to legitimize inhumane treatment of our fellow humans.
None of us would allow our children to utter such filth about the brown kids next door, right? But the "new" right stays silent on these blatantly racist comments from their leader. They merrily pretend this is just another honest policy debate, as Don's masked, unidentified agents prowl our streets.
The words you ascribe to Trump are taken out of context. Yes he used them when describing illegal immigrants and specifically those who have committed violent felonies against American Citizens. In those cases the words are accurate descriptions of the people involved. I don't believe he has used those terms in describing non-violent illegals. Immigration is a complex and serious issue that needs solutions that are only possible with dialogue between competing ideas. Painting with too broad a brush impedes that dialogue.
It seems there is a fat orange cataract in your eye if you didn't know this.
As with any dialogue, the only brush that should matter are facts. And when it comes to Trump, it is easy and reliable to assume the worst. However, the good thing is, he is not in the least discreet, so every reputable news organization will likely have (even the live) evidence. Make the effort so you're not so easily fooled.
Parroting the consensus of your social media bubble like this isn’t going to work. Your faction broke that lever years ago by yanking on it over and over, at this point no one cares. You’ll have to offer an attractive vision of the American future if you want another chance to lead the country, yammering on about the Orange Peril ain’t gonna cut it.
Alas, I'm parroting Don. Amazing he actually utters such things huh. But, be honest, would you really allow your son to mimic him?
I'm guessing, but have you purchased the USA bible as well? Perhaps the gold sneakers. A little $Trump coin, that's where his big money comes from:)
Interestingly, you seem to think I'm a Democrat, a typically reductive, tribal view in today's politics. But I've voted for only Republican presidents my entire life, save one. I'm unable to ignore the incoherence, incompetence, corruption, and blatant racism. It's quite telling that you see me, not Don, as the deranged one:) Lemme guess-TDS, correct?
Make sure to watch his press conference with RFK and Dr Oz this week. Watch all of it. His incoherent babbling makes Joepa look lucid, and that ain't easy:) Will you be advising your daughter to follow the "Orange Perils" advice?
It's disorienting. It's impossible not to laugh hysterically over his bizarre, incoherent rambling. But then, you catch yourself and remember that it's not an SNL skit, he actually IS the potus, and he has his finger on a button that could end the world...
I wonder what conclusion we should draw from the fact his mother and two of his three wives are white immigrants, but the immigrants he regularly dehumanizes are always brown? The Norwegians must not have pets in their regular diet? Regardless, imagine the day in the not too distant future where the newly elected D prez pulls some tools outta Don's immigration toolbox. Maybe those masked, unidentified agents have different targets in their sights? I hear El Salvador is nice this time of year:)
Call me if you're detained and happen to have access to counsel, I'll be standing against that D prez too.
What strikes me most about the H-1B visa discussion is the profound irony surrounding one of the central arguments for free trade. Proponents promised that by outsourcing low-skilled manufacturing and routine work overseas, we would free American workers to focus on high-skilled, high-value endeavors that leveraged our educational advantages and technological innovation. However, the reality over the past two decades tells a starkly different story. Rather than creating this idealized division of labor, globalization has squeezed American workers from both directions. Manufacturing jobs disappeared as predicted, and now our most prominent technology companies have become so structurally dependent on foreign talent that they claim American innovation itself would collapse without continuous H-1B importation. The very politicians and policy "experts" who championed this economic transformation have left us with a hollowed-out middle class and a supposed inability to cultivate the skills we were promised would define our competitive advantage.
The whole notion of "free trade" and "free markets", etc. has been a fraud from the start and, ironically, driven almost entirely by the Rapeublican Party and foremost by people like Reagan. Yes, yes, some Democrats had to color themselves a bit with this to play to that side of the electorate, but ironically all the drive to make American healthcare the most expensive on earth came from all Rapeublicans and all their Trump-supporting orgs: Federalist Society, Heritage Foundation, Claremont, Koch Brothers, etc.
They even blackmailed/suckered/manipulated Obama and Hillary to make gestures toward these "free markets" ideologies.
Europe through those times remained steadfast in supporting their industries and their workers. And, of course, all countries adopted national healthcare/health insurance policies that were aimed making healthcare a right rather than a function of one's means. England's system has been the worst performer but still not unlike our average in this regard whereas the continent has always kept adapting and largely improving.
If H1Bs are about 700,000 imagine ten or twenty times as many. That's what the working class deals with. I certainly can't see a reason to worry about H1Bs.
It really is a phenomenal display of cognitive dissonance that they poo-poo the weak labor market despite surging CAPEX while simultaneously signaling the possibility of an AI bubble. Where the heck do they think all that CAPEX is coming from? Hint: Its not companies re-shoring manufacturing due to tariffs.
Just pointing out two factual inaccuracies in this article:
1) "Employers don’t actually have to demonstrate that no American worker is available to fill the job, and they are not obligated to pay a market wage." Employers are in fact obligated to pay a market wage - they must pay H-1B employees the higher of the "actual wage" (the wage rate paid to similarly qualified U.S. workers in the same job at the same place of employment) or the "prevailing wage" (the average wage paid to similarly employed workers in the specific occupation).
2) "The visas are issued by lottery, without regard to where the most valuable skills are most needed, and they are attached to the specific employer, giving the workers no option but to leave the country if they want to leave the specific job." H-1B employees can in fact remain in the United States if they switch jobs. The prospective new employer just has to file a "change of employer" petition on behalf of the H-1B holder.
Oren was describing reality, not statutory reality. Your 1) is trivially gamed, as for 2), H1Bs have six weeks to re-employ if they leave a job, so in practice they’re chained to the desk unless they already have a job lined up. Seriously, just ask anyone here on an H1B if they feel free to change their employment. The bitter laughter will answer that question for you.
Hi Sam. Just to correct something you wrote - H-1Bs have 60 days to find a new job if they’re terminated, not 6 weeks. Plenty of H-1Bs switch employers, but it’s definitely smart for them to have a signed offer from the new employer before giving notice. Anyway - the factual inaccuracies I pointed out are, in fact, factual inaccuracies (no big deal, this can be complicated). It sounds as though you don’t think the law is applied stringently enough in some cases, but that’s a different discussion. I think it’s important for people to know what the law actually states - that affects the extent to which the response to the problem should be new legislation vs. better enforcement of existing law.
The two week difference doesn’t affect my point at all. I don’t so much think the law is “not applied stringently enough in some cases”, so much as “the law is flouted so thoroughly that citation of said law is just ignoring reality”. It’s the reality I care about.
Not sure where and when you were working, but in NYC from the late 80's to 2008 (my time working on the Street) at all the investment banks (where I worked and ran teams and hired), H1Bs could be put "on the bench" in various ways so they revert to appearing to look like they are still employed or rolling off/on. There were various combinations of how this would work and the time limits were the basis for who had responsibility... sometimes the consulting company, sometimes the employer partly, sometimes both. And compensation was raised or lowered based on who/where/how long. A tough life for many, but worth it. I arranged several green cards, too, or initiated the process.
As I find when I hear from folks who didn't work on the Street, there were apparently "rules" only for the Street. And I remember all the "rules" that were broken when I was working at FXAll, for example. The shenanigans that went on there... Including having worked 72 hours straight. Myself, one of my consultants and one other employee did this together. FXAll passed through a couple hands and is now probably the only entity part of LSEG that makes money.
Ed’s and med’s have been impervious to all attempts to shrink them in the past. They are where all the “good jobs” are. I just don’t see the teachers union or ama ever allowing them to shrink, and with government as primary payer in these sectors there is no offsetting player that cares enough about saving money.
I've read a few things Cass has written. To me, this is someone who's trying to square the circle of American political economy or just outright tipping it toward those who do well or extremely well.
Being a "conservative" has basically been the history of American dysfunction. Project 2025 and Heritage Foundation have been both cultural and economic disasters for America and, even more so, for Americans. After all, this is the force behind Trump's rise and his only slightly more insane policies.
There has not been a "Conservative" personality or politician or "project" that has actually bettered America and Americans since Eisenhower. The Libertarian component is singularly responsible for the deindustrialization of America. When I left to work in Germany and later Switzerland in the 80's and early '90's I was taking advantage of the need for techies. I worked for Daimler-Benz, IBM, Lufthansa and Ciba-Geigy in Germany and the original SwissBankCorp in Basel. I never worked for more than 7.5 hours/day and was given lunch for free and would have had 6 weeks paid vacation and 15 paid holidays a year if I chose to be an employee rather than a consultant. There were no American cars on the roads except for the occasional GI and no American goods except for airplanes and some weapons.
In both countries, everyone had excellent healthcare. I had an American friend and colleague who suffered a long series of health problems... first prostate cancer, then two episodes of brain cancer, then a severe bicycle accident... and he never had a co-pay, never had a premium rise and was even provided a "natural cure" at a spa for 3 months: not a single DMark/EURO. And he received income support. And he is alive today. If he lived here in the USA he would have died poor after the first episode. And that state is still true today.
And there were other features. I did have a car, but used it only for traveling around to places that weren't reachable by the comprehensive and affordable train system. Everything from bathrooms to airport general lounges were spotless. I have been back several times and my kid was a ML/AI professor at Tuebingen U. Some things have changed slightly for the worse, but still nothing approaching the 2nd/3rd world conditions that still prevail here.
As for H1B's, I ran fixed income and derivatives trading at virtually every NY investment bank over my career in the U.S. My last role was rebuilding/upgrading tech for GoldmanSachs' SecDB I NEVER HAD A MAJORITY NATIVE AMERICAN TEAM and almost all were H1Bs.
So why so many always? Because we have a shit education system. It's not built to fit people for a secure future in a particular trade or profession. It's a free-for-all degenerate version of the old English "Public" (aka PRIVATE) school system. We were living in the past even more than the Brits. And still largely are. And now the backlash comes. Not any reflection on what we keep doing wrong: free markets, private education bullshit. Now that horse has run its race. And instead of looking for the right fix, its combination of beggars' banquet and shark feeding frenzy. And multiple slaughters of all the golden-egg-laying geese that the Right in America (such as you) always cook up. For themselves.
Goldman Sachs average h1b salary comes in $30k higher then notorious h1b infosys and $40k higher then Tata consulting. So they’re not the worst abusers.
But even within Goldman there is huge variation in H1bs. The largest category is VP of software engineering, which averages $187k in salary. I’m sure if we could drill down to people working in New York that senior bankers interacted with you would get over $200k easy.
But the third and fourth largest categories for Goldman are associate and analyst, both under $100k. Analyst salaries are a mere $68k, with a low of $42k.
Thats pathetic for a full time employed worker, often in an expensive metro area.
Does Goldman Sachs really need to higher foreigners to work for poverty wages?
Ok, so you don't know anything about GS, even though I thought anyone who knew who GS would know this: Your base salary is a pittance and MEANINGLESS. Everyone works for the year-end bonus. Also, unless the H1Bs are fully remote, they are typically paid pretty well by the consulting company, but definitely not as well as full-timers at GS or any of the other IBs.
The average base salary of an investment banking analyst at Goldman is $118k. For an associate its $200k.
Even that might be out of date. There is an official Golden press release from 2021 saying that first year analysts base salary was being raised to $110k, second year to $125k.
I really don't think these H1Bs being brought in on $42k base salaries are getting $120k bonuses on average so that it evens out. Try to Occam's Razor this one.
Of course H1Bs --if they were direct employees-- got bonuses.
While we're pointing out the many problems with our immigration system, I'll offer the following.
Our president-the founder, leader, and intellectual lodestar of the "new" right, has publicly uttered the following terms to describe immigrants and the immigration issue:
"Invasion, vermin, rapists, eating the pets, poisoning the blood, animals, infestation, shithole countries, bloodthirsty criminals, most violent people on earth, stone cold killers, the worst people."
These are terms used by authoritarians throughout history to dehumanize minority populations. They inspire hate, and serve to legitimize inhumane treatment of our fellow humans.
None of us would allow our children to utter such filth about the brown kids next door, right? But the "new" right stays silent on these blatantly racist comments from their leader. They merrily pretend this is just another honest policy debate, as Don's masked, unidentified agents prowl our streets.
Shame on them.
The words you ascribe to Trump are taken out of context. Yes he used them when describing illegal immigrants and specifically those who have committed violent felonies against American Citizens. In those cases the words are accurate descriptions of the people involved. I don't believe he has used those terms in describing non-violent illegals. Immigration is a complex and serious issue that needs solutions that are only possible with dialogue between competing ideas. Painting with too broad a brush impedes that dialogue.
Dick Minnis
removingthecataract.substack.com
I've had the unpleasant honor of growing up (in NYC) around Trump... twice in the same room with the guy but otherwise most extensively on the original Howard Stern Show. Before I go there, here's your info: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-brings-idea-deporting-us-citizens-crimes/story?id=123385213
It seems there is a fat orange cataract in your eye if you didn't know this.
As with any dialogue, the only brush that should matter are facts. And when it comes to Trump, it is easy and reliable to assume the worst. However, the good thing is, he is not in the least discreet, so every reputable news organization will likely have (even the live) evidence. Make the effort so you're not so easily fooled.
Parroting the consensus of your social media bubble like this isn’t going to work. Your faction broke that lever years ago by yanking on it over and over, at this point no one cares. You’ll have to offer an attractive vision of the American future if you want another chance to lead the country, yammering on about the Orange Peril ain’t gonna cut it.
Alas, I'm parroting Don. Amazing he actually utters such things huh. But, be honest, would you really allow your son to mimic him?
I'm guessing, but have you purchased the USA bible as well? Perhaps the gold sneakers. A little $Trump coin, that's where his big money comes from:)
Interestingly, you seem to think I'm a Democrat, a typically reductive, tribal view in today's politics. But I've voted for only Republican presidents my entire life, save one. I'm unable to ignore the incoherence, incompetence, corruption, and blatant racism. It's quite telling that you see me, not Don, as the deranged one:) Lemme guess-TDS, correct?
Make sure to watch his press conference with RFK and Dr Oz this week. Watch all of it. His incoherent babbling makes Joepa look lucid, and that ain't easy:) Will you be advising your daughter to follow the "Orange Perils" advice?
Seems pretty deranged from where I sit, yes.
It's disorienting. It's impossible not to laugh hysterically over his bizarre, incoherent rambling. But then, you catch yourself and remember that it's not an SNL skit, he actually IS the potus, and he has his finger on a button that could end the world...
I wonder what conclusion we should draw from the fact his mother and two of his three wives are white immigrants, but the immigrants he regularly dehumanizes are always brown? The Norwegians must not have pets in their regular diet? Regardless, imagine the day in the not too distant future where the newly elected D prez pulls some tools outta Don's immigration toolbox. Maybe those masked, unidentified agents have different targets in their sights? I hear El Salvador is nice this time of year:)
Call me if you're detained and happen to have access to counsel, I'll be standing against that D prez too.
What strikes me most about the H-1B visa discussion is the profound irony surrounding one of the central arguments for free trade. Proponents promised that by outsourcing low-skilled manufacturing and routine work overseas, we would free American workers to focus on high-skilled, high-value endeavors that leveraged our educational advantages and technological innovation. However, the reality over the past two decades tells a starkly different story. Rather than creating this idealized division of labor, globalization has squeezed American workers from both directions. Manufacturing jobs disappeared as predicted, and now our most prominent technology companies have become so structurally dependent on foreign talent that they claim American innovation itself would collapse without continuous H-1B importation. The very politicians and policy "experts" who championed this economic transformation have left us with a hollowed-out middle class and a supposed inability to cultivate the skills we were promised would define our competitive advantage.
The whole notion of "free trade" and "free markets", etc. has been a fraud from the start and, ironically, driven almost entirely by the Rapeublican Party and foremost by people like Reagan. Yes, yes, some Democrats had to color themselves a bit with this to play to that side of the electorate, but ironically all the drive to make American healthcare the most expensive on earth came from all Rapeublicans and all their Trump-supporting orgs: Federalist Society, Heritage Foundation, Claremont, Koch Brothers, etc.
They even blackmailed/suckered/manipulated Obama and Hillary to make gestures toward these "free markets" ideologies.
Europe through those times remained steadfast in supporting their industries and their workers. And, of course, all countries adopted national healthcare/health insurance policies that were aimed making healthcare a right rather than a function of one's means. England's system has been the worst performer but still not unlike our average in this regard whereas the continent has always kept adapting and largely improving.
If H1Bs are about 700,000 imagine ten or twenty times as many. That's what the working class deals with. I certainly can't see a reason to worry about H1Bs.
It really is a phenomenal display of cognitive dissonance that they poo-poo the weak labor market despite surging CAPEX while simultaneously signaling the possibility of an AI bubble. Where the heck do they think all that CAPEX is coming from? Hint: Its not companies re-shoring manufacturing due to tariffs.
Just pointing out two factual inaccuracies in this article:
1) "Employers don’t actually have to demonstrate that no American worker is available to fill the job, and they are not obligated to pay a market wage." Employers are in fact obligated to pay a market wage - they must pay H-1B employees the higher of the "actual wage" (the wage rate paid to similarly qualified U.S. workers in the same job at the same place of employment) or the "prevailing wage" (the average wage paid to similarly employed workers in the specific occupation).
2) "The visas are issued by lottery, without regard to where the most valuable skills are most needed, and they are attached to the specific employer, giving the workers no option but to leave the country if they want to leave the specific job." H-1B employees can in fact remain in the United States if they switch jobs. The prospective new employer just has to file a "change of employer" petition on behalf of the H-1B holder.
Oren was describing reality, not statutory reality. Your 1) is trivially gamed, as for 2), H1Bs have six weeks to re-employ if they leave a job, so in practice they’re chained to the desk unless they already have a job lined up. Seriously, just ask anyone here on an H1B if they feel free to change their employment. The bitter laughter will answer that question for you.
Hi Sam. Just to correct something you wrote - H-1Bs have 60 days to find a new job if they’re terminated, not 6 weeks. Plenty of H-1Bs switch employers, but it’s definitely smart for them to have a signed offer from the new employer before giving notice. Anyway - the factual inaccuracies I pointed out are, in fact, factual inaccuracies (no big deal, this can be complicated). It sounds as though you don’t think the law is applied stringently enough in some cases, but that’s a different discussion. I think it’s important for people to know what the law actually states - that affects the extent to which the response to the problem should be new legislation vs. better enforcement of existing law.
The two week difference doesn’t affect my point at all. I don’t so much think the law is “not applied stringently enough in some cases”, so much as “the law is flouted so thoroughly that citation of said law is just ignoring reality”. It’s the reality I care about.
Not sure where and when you were working, but in NYC from the late 80's to 2008 (my time working on the Street) at all the investment banks (where I worked and ran teams and hired), H1Bs could be put "on the bench" in various ways so they revert to appearing to look like they are still employed or rolling off/on. There were various combinations of how this would work and the time limits were the basis for who had responsibility... sometimes the consulting company, sometimes the employer partly, sometimes both. And compensation was raised or lowered based on who/where/how long. A tough life for many, but worth it. I arranged several green cards, too, or initiated the process.
Interesting. Benching has been unambiguously illegal ever since the American Competitiveness and Workforce Improvement Act of 1998.
As I find when I hear from folks who didn't work on the Street, there were apparently "rules" only for the Street. And I remember all the "rules" that were broken when I was working at FXAll, for example. The shenanigans that went on there... Including having worked 72 hours straight. Myself, one of my consultants and one other employee did this together. FXAll passed through a couple hands and is now probably the only entity part of LSEG that makes money.
Great article thank you. Keep the trolls and bota on their toes! lol ha
Ed’s and med’s have been impervious to all attempts to shrink them in the past. They are where all the “good jobs” are. I just don’t see the teachers union or ama ever allowing them to shrink, and with government as primary payer in these sectors there is no offsetting player that cares enough about saving money.