I love these honest and open discussions that are not based on strawmen arguments. There is still some uncertainty and you acknowledge that but in a very balanced discussion. Thank you so much!
I'm not sure if I don't follow crypto because it confuses me.
Or if because crypto confuses me, I don't follow it. Maybe it doesn't matter.
But are you referring to the new laws about crypto that are supposed to let the crypto people know what is and is not legal? And after they know this, the crypto people will start to expand their business accordingly? And perhaps either more people start using crypto, or the current users increase their use, or some of both?
Or were you referring to Trump's EO allowing crypto in 401Ks?
Or both?
And when you talk about potential volatility, is that just the crypto market?
2026 and 2028 are looking more and more like good years for Republicans, especially if the Ds insist on doubling down on trans issues and on immigration. It seems they’ve learned nothing from 2024.
I think the jury is out on that with the potential for Medicaid cuts and whatever will happen with Epstein. I guess the smart money is that Trump will hoodwink his base as he usually does, but these are two serious issues he may actually underestimate. Time will tell
No argument on that. But for years they’ve marinated in the belief that high level leaders were running a sex trafficking ring. I think there’s a line for everyone.
Personally I don’t think it’s going to change much unless something truly graphic comes out. Even then ppl may dismiss it as AI or fake
After the first Trump Tax Cut we had 2.6% GDP growth and 4% deficit/GDP ratio…while Trump inherited 2.6% GDP growth with 3% deficit/GDP ratio. So why is the BBB superior to Trump’s first tax cut??
Thank you for focusing on the 15-20% tariff as possibly stable. It reminds me the old economics joke that the tariffs seem to work well in practice but will they work in theory? This is an empirical problem. And if I might go tech bro on this, I'd pose the question "if you invented the most powerful economic technology of all time, would you give it away or charge a license?". The American consumer is the most powerful economic technology ever created. And if you want to access it, pay the license fee (15-20% license aka tariff).
Excellent piece. Missing was discussion of the 3-5 year effects on the real economy and investment of the hugely positive changes in the regulatory environment.
One of the difficulties with the notion of other countries retaliating to US tariffs is that in many cases the US tariffs are a belated response to tariffs and other protectionist measures the trading partners have long had, and they know it.
I’m sanguine. We have the self-proclaimed very stable genius in charge, methodically implementing his finely honed strategery. Calmly implementing the “new” right agenda one day at a time. Just because he failed miserably in business, has an addled/anger soaked 80 year old brain, and made his money through inheritance, grifting, and being a game show host, doesn’t mean he can’t run the world’s largest economy. What could possibly go wrong? And hey, if the numbers go south, you power down a shot of bleach, fire the smart people who can do math, and hire a fellow TV personality and loyalist like the weekend talk show host Pete Hegseth-problem solved! To top it off, Don is simultaneously remaking the global security order, so we can leave our grandchildren a safer world. And let’s not forget his ace in the hole. His ignorant, crazed, narcissistic volatility isn’t a weakness like neoliberals think, his uninformed unpredictability is exactly what we want in the person with his finger on the button. Gotta keep em guessin… With any luck his next coup attempt succeeds. We need him. Good luck America.
"Just because he failed miserably in business, has an addled/anger soaked 80 year old brain, and made his money through inheritance, grifting, and being a game show host, doesn’t mean he can’t run the world’s largest economy." The Trump Organization was involved with around 500 businesses. Of those, 6 filed for bankruptcy. Hardly a miserable failure. Yes, he inherited from his father. He took that money and grew it exponentially. Agreed, he's a narcissist and loud mouth, but listen through the boasting and hyperbole and you will discover he has all the facts. Suggest you read some history of the world's leaders. You will discover a treasure trove of loud mouthed narcissists, many now beloved for their accomplishments. Will his policies work? I don't know but, to date and despite all the screeching by the left wing media, the sky has not fallen.
Hmm, his tax returns told a different story as to his biz acumen. But I'll hand it to him for bolstering his cash position with several hundred mill of meme coin loot. I'm sure he had America's best interests at heart when he pocketed that cash.
I sure hope you're right. Maybe he's unspooling a brilliant master plan, it's 4D chess, the art of the deal. But if you actually read his"truth" social bleats, and attend one of his rallies, don't ya kinda wonder what's rattling around up there?
Yes. Along with every other president in my lifetime. All were normal humans. None were perfect, with plenty to criticize. But none incited an insurrection. None lied about the integrity of elections, the bedrock of a free society. None were so massively, and openly corrupt. None openly fomented violence, pardoned criminals convicted of seditious conspiracy, or threatened judges and the media. All could have been hired to run the local Arby's or the local school district, as opposed to being disqualified by contemptible personal behavior and felony conviction. All read the presidential daily brief. All knew what the nuclear triad was. None claimed he couldn’t have sexually harassed his accuser because she “wasn’t my type”, and then identified her in a court deposition as his ex wife when shown a photo.
It's fine to argue about the modest impact of taco tariffing Canada but not Russia. It just seems to pale in comparison to the degradation of the rule of law, which will never pass Oren's lips. Like other "leaders" in my former party, he remains silent. But which is more important to our economy long term?
I believe what JD and Little Marco said about Don the first time. The time they told the truth, before publicly self gelding. I believe the top staff from his first term, when he had heroes like Mattis and Kelly, not unqualified, dangerous, drunken loons like RFK Jr and Hegseth. His own staff told us, explicitly, on the record, that he was unfit for office. I believe them. Do you?
If Trump "incited an insurrection" why did he make two offers, one in writing and one verbally, of National Guard assistance to the Capitol police for that day? Why were those two offers refused? Why was no one charged with insurrection if indeed it was an insurrection? It's completely understandable not to like a POTUS or approve of his policies. But please, do it with sound reasoning and facts, not sheer fancy.
Don't take my word, or the word of the "fake media". Take the time to actually read the cases of the 1500 criminals convicted from acts they committed on, and more importantly before, Jan 6. Those are the criminals Don pardoned, they now populate the January 6th choir that sing at his rallies. Some were convicted for seditious conspiracy, look up the meaning of the term, read those cases. Read the public comments from Don's own staff, his own appointees, on what transpired. The people he assured us were "the best people" when he appointed them. Do you believe them, or Don?
Back to the original question, do these assaults on the rule of law, or Don's taco tariffs, matter more for our economy long term? As an economist, doesn't Oren have an opinion?
Don’t agree with you at all regarding the normalcy of past Presidents. Don’t agree with you at all about the quality of past Presidential appointees or the quality of the old status quo or your perception of macro-economics. Don’t agree that it was an insurrection.
I don’t care for Donald Trump personally…and I have to note that I could not stand Clinton (either one), either of the Bushes, either of the Obamas. In my opinion, Joe Biden was and is a disgusting example of the rot in Washington. I have despised him since I was in high school in 1988, and he never failed to live down to my low expectations. He was a failed President. Of course, that means his appointees as well who failed in their duty to ensure the office was filled by a functional individual. I understand your disgust of Trump, because I have experienced every bit of your anger and bitterness over past Presidents. I completely disagree with your world view and find myself in agreement with the President if not thrilled with the personality.
Democracy is awesome. Elections matter. Your time will come again in some form. I do wish you well.
“Don’t agree it was an insurrection.” Luckily it’s not up for debate. What do you think he was doing when he was incessantly stating the election was rigged and personally asking to find “more votes”? Why did he call all of his moronic followers to come to the capital that day? They weren’t there to celebrate the peaceful transfer of power. So I’m beyond confused. How would you describe his actions? Also it’s a more than a bit bizarre you concluded your comment with a salute to democracy. Truly insane.
No worries. I'll believe JD/Lil Marco's first version, you'll believe their revised version. I'll believe the on the record statements of his staff, while you think they're lying. And we all get to explain to our granddaughters the difference in character between Don and his predecessors, and where we stood when it mattered. It shouldn't be hard, it's all on video.
“The thing I’m struck by in that forecast is that it assumes that the tariff environment that we seem to be heading towards—in aggregate, tariffs at 15 to 20% levels—is consistent with incentives for increased investment.”
Any calculation of increased investment needs to account for the fact that inputs are still subject to tariffs. We cannot possibly make, extract, or grow everything we need, and certainly not in the quantities in which we’ll need them. Costs will go up, period. Prices will follow.
I haven't seen it suggested that America makes "everything". From what I can see the plan is to ensure that key critical industries and production remains on shore. I strongly suspect the covid supply chain shocks woke everyone one up. There never was ( and never will be) a perfect "free trade" world. Its a BS idea that some have made into a religion/ culture. Conutries/groups will work in their self interest. China is a shining example of this. China looks after China first ... America is following suit.
Agreed, except that putting tariffs on countries from which we import stuff we cannot make, extract, or grow ourselves is self-defeating. More of a scalpel, less sledgehammer.
When all of a nation's antibiotics and minerals needed for military and private technology ventures are manufactured by an unfriendly country, it is time to resource that manufacturing home. That is, if you want to have a country.
Good point but, isn't that what American exceptionalism is all about, overcoming obstacles? Tariffs were used, in large part, as a negotiating tool to bring industry back to US shores that are necessary for self reliance and defense.
It’s possible, but “encouraging” innovation by first erecting roadblocks before a reasonable alternative exists seems backwards. I think you’re giving the admin far more credit than they deserve.
You are getting what you are getting because of the tactics employed by two democrat “prez” and one failed democrat “prez” candidate. Your history lesson is very selective in its outrage.
And it looks like we'll have to stop with all the "Smoot Hawley caused the great depression" rhetoric now that effective tariffs are in the high teens again.
Lack of retaliation doesn’t address the cost of inputs or intermediate goods, only the sales of finished products. If costs go up because we simply can’t fully supply our own needs, there will be a drag on investment.
“Although if we have the disruption from AI eliminating entry-level marketing and white-collar jobs exactly at the same time as a productivity boom and investment in reshoring, it could create a massive need for advanced manufacturing employment”
Owen, what are you thinking? Don’t you expect any need for increased manufacturing to be supplied by AI? Manufacturing is a much easier space in which to implement AI than marketing. Why wouldn’t ANY need for increased labor be handled by AI?
Because they don't treat "free trade" as a religious ideal. Free trade is a fugazi. There have always been, and there will always be, barriers to protect things deemed vital to the we being of the state.
That position necessarily tempers both pro-capitalism and pro-free trade. I agree it exists and is necessary, but redundancy in the supply chain is a far more important reason for some level of protectionist trade.
I love these honest and open discussions that are not based on strawmen arguments. There is still some uncertainty and you acknowledge that but in a very balanced discussion. Thank you so much!
So what about the impact of pulling back in all the "green" investment ? Won't this negatively impact overall investment ?
And not a word about crypto ? As our government lets this cat out of the bag,are there no concerns about potential volatility?
I'm not sure if I don't follow crypto because it confuses me.
Or if because crypto confuses me, I don't follow it. Maybe it doesn't matter.
But are you referring to the new laws about crypto that are supposed to let the crypto people know what is and is not legal? And after they know this, the crypto people will start to expand their business accordingly? And perhaps either more people start using crypto, or the current users increase their use, or some of both?
Or were you referring to Trump's EO allowing crypto in 401Ks?
Or both?
And when you talk about potential volatility, is that just the crypto market?
2026 and 2028 are looking more and more like good years for Republicans, especially if the Ds insist on doubling down on trans issues and on immigration. It seems they’ve learned nothing from 2024.
I think the jury is out on that with the potential for Medicaid cuts and whatever will happen with Epstein. I guess the smart money is that Trump will hoodwink his base as he usually does, but these are two serious issues he may actually underestimate. Time will tell
I think you overestimate the Epstein effect. No one supports trump because they think he is a saint in his private life.
No argument on that. But for years they’ve marinated in the belief that high level leaders were running a sex trafficking ring. I think there’s a line for everyone.
Personally I don’t think it’s going to change much unless something truly graphic comes out. Even then ppl may dismiss it as AI or fake
After the first Trump Tax Cut we had 2.6% GDP growth and 4% deficit/GDP ratio…while Trump inherited 2.6% GDP growth with 3% deficit/GDP ratio. So why is the BBB superior to Trump’s first tax cut??
Thank you for focusing on the 15-20% tariff as possibly stable. It reminds me the old economics joke that the tariffs seem to work well in practice but will they work in theory? This is an empirical problem. And if I might go tech bro on this, I'd pose the question "if you invented the most powerful economic technology of all time, would you give it away or charge a license?". The American consumer is the most powerful economic technology ever created. And if you want to access it, pay the license fee (15-20% license aka tariff).
Excellent piece. Missing was discussion of the 3-5 year effects on the real economy and investment of the hugely positive changes in the regulatory environment.
One of the difficulties with the notion of other countries retaliating to US tariffs is that in many cases the US tariffs are a belated response to tariffs and other protectionist measures the trading partners have long had, and they know it.
I’m sanguine. We have the self-proclaimed very stable genius in charge, methodically implementing his finely honed strategery. Calmly implementing the “new” right agenda one day at a time. Just because he failed miserably in business, has an addled/anger soaked 80 year old brain, and made his money through inheritance, grifting, and being a game show host, doesn’t mean he can’t run the world’s largest economy. What could possibly go wrong? And hey, if the numbers go south, you power down a shot of bleach, fire the smart people who can do math, and hire a fellow TV personality and loyalist like the weekend talk show host Pete Hegseth-problem solved! To top it off, Don is simultaneously remaking the global security order, so we can leave our grandchildren a safer world. And let’s not forget his ace in the hole. His ignorant, crazed, narcissistic volatility isn’t a weakness like neoliberals think, his uninformed unpredictability is exactly what we want in the person with his finger on the button. Gotta keep em guessin… With any luck his next coup attempt succeeds. We need him. Good luck America.
"Just because he failed miserably in business, has an addled/anger soaked 80 year old brain, and made his money through inheritance, grifting, and being a game show host, doesn’t mean he can’t run the world’s largest economy." The Trump Organization was involved with around 500 businesses. Of those, 6 filed for bankruptcy. Hardly a miserable failure. Yes, he inherited from his father. He took that money and grew it exponentially. Agreed, he's a narcissist and loud mouth, but listen through the boasting and hyperbole and you will discover he has all the facts. Suggest you read some history of the world's leaders. You will discover a treasure trove of loud mouthed narcissists, many now beloved for their accomplishments. Will his policies work? I don't know but, to date and despite all the screeching by the left wing media, the sky has not fallen.
Hmm, his tax returns told a different story as to his biz acumen. But I'll hand it to him for bolstering his cash position with several hundred mill of meme coin loot. I'm sure he had America's best interests at heart when he pocketed that cash.
I sure hope you're right. Maybe he's unspooling a brilliant master plan, it's 4D chess, the art of the deal. But if you actually read his"truth" social bleats, and attend one of his rallies, don't ya kinda wonder what's rattling around up there?
Was there something that made you feel more secure about the Biden administration? Or for that matter Obama?
Yes. Along with every other president in my lifetime. All were normal humans. None were perfect, with plenty to criticize. But none incited an insurrection. None lied about the integrity of elections, the bedrock of a free society. None were so massively, and openly corrupt. None openly fomented violence, pardoned criminals convicted of seditious conspiracy, or threatened judges and the media. All could have been hired to run the local Arby's or the local school district, as opposed to being disqualified by contemptible personal behavior and felony conviction. All read the presidential daily brief. All knew what the nuclear triad was. None claimed he couldn’t have sexually harassed his accuser because she “wasn’t my type”, and then identified her in a court deposition as his ex wife when shown a photo.
It's fine to argue about the modest impact of taco tariffing Canada but not Russia. It just seems to pale in comparison to the degradation of the rule of law, which will never pass Oren's lips. Like other "leaders" in my former party, he remains silent. But which is more important to our economy long term?
I believe what JD and Little Marco said about Don the first time. The time they told the truth, before publicly self gelding. I believe the top staff from his first term, when he had heroes like Mattis and Kelly, not unqualified, dangerous, drunken loons like RFK Jr and Hegseth. His own staff told us, explicitly, on the record, that he was unfit for office. I believe them. Do you?
If Trump "incited an insurrection" why did he make two offers, one in writing and one verbally, of National Guard assistance to the Capitol police for that day? Why were those two offers refused? Why was no one charged with insurrection if indeed it was an insurrection? It's completely understandable not to like a POTUS or approve of his policies. But please, do it with sound reasoning and facts, not sheer fancy.
Don't take my word, or the word of the "fake media". Take the time to actually read the cases of the 1500 criminals convicted from acts they committed on, and more importantly before, Jan 6. Those are the criminals Don pardoned, they now populate the January 6th choir that sing at his rallies. Some were convicted for seditious conspiracy, look up the meaning of the term, read those cases. Read the public comments from Don's own staff, his own appointees, on what transpired. The people he assured us were "the best people" when he appointed them. Do you believe them, or Don?
Back to the original question, do these assaults on the rule of law, or Don's taco tariffs, matter more for our economy long term? As an economist, doesn't Oren have an opinion?
Don’t agree with you at all regarding the normalcy of past Presidents. Don’t agree with you at all about the quality of past Presidential appointees or the quality of the old status quo or your perception of macro-economics. Don’t agree that it was an insurrection.
I don’t care for Donald Trump personally…and I have to note that I could not stand Clinton (either one), either of the Bushes, either of the Obamas. In my opinion, Joe Biden was and is a disgusting example of the rot in Washington. I have despised him since I was in high school in 1988, and he never failed to live down to my low expectations. He was a failed President. Of course, that means his appointees as well who failed in their duty to ensure the office was filled by a functional individual. I understand your disgust of Trump, because I have experienced every bit of your anger and bitterness over past Presidents. I completely disagree with your world view and find myself in agreement with the President if not thrilled with the personality.
Democracy is awesome. Elections matter. Your time will come again in some form. I do wish you well.
“Don’t agree it was an insurrection.” Luckily it’s not up for debate. What do you think he was doing when he was incessantly stating the election was rigged and personally asking to find “more votes”? Why did he call all of his moronic followers to come to the capital that day? They weren’t there to celebrate the peaceful transfer of power. So I’m beyond confused. How would you describe his actions? Also it’s a more than a bit bizarre you concluded your comment with a salute to democracy. Truly insane.
No worries. I'll believe JD/Lil Marco's first version, you'll believe their revised version. I'll believe the on the record statements of his staff, while you think they're lying. And we all get to explain to our granddaughters the difference in character between Don and his predecessors, and where we stood when it mattered. It shouldn't be hard, it's all on video.
TDS??
Absolutely. Cultist?
“The thing I’m struck by in that forecast is that it assumes that the tariff environment that we seem to be heading towards—in aggregate, tariffs at 15 to 20% levels—is consistent with incentives for increased investment.”
Any calculation of increased investment needs to account for the fact that inputs are still subject to tariffs. We cannot possibly make, extract, or grow everything we need, and certainly not in the quantities in which we’ll need them. Costs will go up, period. Prices will follow.
I haven't seen it suggested that America makes "everything". From what I can see the plan is to ensure that key critical industries and production remains on shore. I strongly suspect the covid supply chain shocks woke everyone one up. There never was ( and never will be) a perfect "free trade" world. Its a BS idea that some have made into a religion/ culture. Conutries/groups will work in their self interest. China is a shining example of this. China looks after China first ... America is following suit.
Agreed, except that putting tariffs on countries from which we import stuff we cannot make, extract, or grow ourselves is self-defeating. More of a scalpel, less sledgehammer.
When all of a nation's antibiotics and minerals needed for military and private technology ventures are manufactured by an unfriendly country, it is time to resource that manufacturing home. That is, if you want to have a country.
Great idea, assuming you have the skills and can get the raw materials. That requires subsidies and aid, not tariffs.
Good point but, isn't that what American exceptionalism is all about, overcoming obstacles? Tariffs were used, in large part, as a negotiating tool to bring industry back to US shores that are necessary for self reliance and defense.
It’s possible, but “encouraging” innovation by first erecting roadblocks before a reasonable alternative exists seems backwards. I think you’re giving the admin far more credit than they deserve.
All of the below.There is no value behind it use vibes.
You are getting what you are getting because of the tactics employed by two democrat “prez” and one failed democrat “prez” candidate. Your history lesson is very selective in its outrage.
And it looks like we'll have to stop with all the "Smoot Hawley caused the great depression" rhetoric now that effective tariffs are in the high teens again.
Lack of retaliation doesn’t address the cost of inputs or intermediate goods, only the sales of finished products. If costs go up because we simply can’t fully supply our own needs, there will be a drag on investment.
“Although if we have the disruption from AI eliminating entry-level marketing and white-collar jobs exactly at the same time as a productivity boom and investment in reshoring, it could create a massive need for advanced manufacturing employment”
Owen, what are you thinking? Don’t you expect any need for increased manufacturing to be supplied by AI? Manufacturing is a much easier space in which to implement AI than marketing. Why wouldn’t ANY need for increased labor be handled by AI?
Marketing is super amenable to AI, anything that can be expressed as generating symbols is.
Manipulating physical objects, aka manufacturing, is still really hard for machines, and is a research frontier.
No..marketing is far far easier for AI than manufacturing. Robotics is hard.
Has can a pro-capitalist be anti-free trade? Those two positions are incompatible.
Because they don't treat "free trade" as a religious ideal. Free trade is a fugazi. There have always been, and there will always be, barriers to protect things deemed vital to the we being of the state.
That position necessarily tempers both pro-capitalism and pro-free trade. I agree it exists and is necessary, but redundancy in the supply chain is a far more important reason for some level of protectionist trade.
Europe is worse than you think. They are sabotaging peace in Ukraine and Gaza.