Good article. The bilateral trade deficit is irrelevant and always has been, but the issue is larger than transshipments. When we import good from other low-cost nations, they are importing from China. We must be focused on reducing our overall trade deficit. We cannot rely on other countries to help us defend our industrial base.
For what it's worth, Chinese debt is spiraling even more rapidly than ours is. The Chinese debt-to-GDP ratio is now much higher than America's—over 300% for the last 5 quarters!—with banks transferring bad debt onto an entire tranche of perpetually negative-profit "zombie firms" rather than calling in the loans and eating the losses. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/1223 (Article from end 2025; current projections are ≈335-350%)
When you say "bilateral trade deficit," I assume you're talking about trade between the US and China. That is definitely not irrelevant!!!! It's what put us in this mess. Sure, NAFTA did us no favors, but China's entry into the WTO brought the China Shock and its concomitant destruction of long established industries in the United States. Deaths of despair soared along with it.
That terrible NAFTA set the blueprint for China and its sad that it ever came into being, and that it did so without strong, enforceable protections for the workers who lost their jobs. They were pretty much left to their own devices, or told "learn to code." Sure. Even Robert Reich, Labor Secretary when NAFTA was signed, wishes more consideration and money for laid-off workers had been incorporated into NAFTA. Well, too late now.
But it was the China Shock that truly blew up the system. We need to close the trade deficit with China. It matters a lot. It sets a template. And not all countries get their cheap products from China. They make their own cheap products, too. We need to make more products in the United States and not be so reliant on other countries.
I agree with the problem you're diagnosing- my point is that we should be focusing on reducing our trade deficit in general (including, but not limited to, the deficit with China). China has caused many of the problems we face today, but it is not the only perpetrator. What difference does it make to me whether the cotton mill in my town closed because the factory was outsourced to China or if it was outsourced to India? Those jobs are gone either way.
China was the largest perpetrator of unfair trade practices (currency manipulation, stealing trade secrets...) and had the most exports to the United States. It's important that we take care of them first, and show that we mean business.
If India was the main perpetrator, then we would need to take care of them first. China dwarfs all other nations in terms of industrial production and exports. Also, now that we've lessened imports from China, China is flooding other countries with cheap imports, which threatens to demolish their industries.
Because of this, in January of this year, Mexico implemented tariffs of up to 50% on over 1,400 products imported from China. That said, though, we definitely need fair trade agreements with all countries, as you say, and have balanced trade.
So yeah, our trade genius and global military warlord has put a powerful architecture into place with 8 meaningless countries to keep China from getting around tarriffs. Wow. Cool! Oh, wait a minute, somebody’s got to monitor and enforce this. And oh, wait a minute, Trump can change his mind at any time, not that he ever would. Oh, and every other significant country in the world is now madly at work trying to figure out how to get around the US and the petrodollar. I guess the Iranians are inspiring some other places to do some out of box thinking. (Some people are saying that necessity is the mother of invention.)
But hey, it’s a start! Undreamed of prosperity is absolutely around the corner! Maybe in two weeks!
Wouldn't it be nice if, instead of alienating our closest allies, we'd have rallied them to confront China collectively? Instead, Don's first year firmly cemented his America Alone strategery.
How ironic it's already come back to haunt him in the aftermath of launching MAGA's Middle East war.
The Greenland fiasco, threatening war crimes/genocide, switching sides in the Russia/Ukraine war, the Orban endorsement, the trashing of NATO, the personal insults, the dementia riddled and incoherent rants, random taco tariffs, the flouting of international law and our constitution, it's been quite a year for the toddler in chief. All topped off by launching a foolish war without consultation with, or concern for, our allies. Don has been left desperately casting about for someone to save him, but alas, he's left himself on a deserted island.
Thats the good news. The bad news is that this 80+ year old stooge has nearly 3 years left in office. Buckle up, the damage has just begun.
Jesus is our real problem that people like you are just illiterate?
Obama ran a full court diplomacy campaign to keep our allies from partnering with China on the AIB and our special relationship cousins, the British, were the first of dozens of allies to cross the line.
Got all that? No resentment at Trumpian bluster, no retaliation over our tariffs. None of that had happened. Our effete, fuckwit allies just flat out refused to cooperate with a substantially urgent request from a President they greatly preferred dealing with. That’s what happens when you “rally them to confront China collectively.” They bitch out because they want to have their cake and eat it to.
Don has made his antipathy for fellow democracies quite clear. You just did as well. So, why is Don so upset that the nations he publicly derides don’t want to bail him out of MAGA’s Middle East war, a war he chose to launch without their knowledge? Why the flip flop? He’s old, maybe he forgot he opposes them? Or, is he desperate because his lack of a strategery for MAGA’s Middle East war has placed him in a corner from which he can’t extricate himself?
And hey, at least we still have Eswatini, Russia, Hungary, El Salvador, Congo, Uganda, Rwanda, Ghana, Equitorial Guinea, South Sudan, and Venezuela as allies:) Bring on Cuba!
The answer to your question is our allies would rather trade China for marginal commercial gain than stand with us, so why bother confronting China or Russia?
The flip flop is dipshits like you. Did you notice or care that Obama said there’s nothing we could do to protect Ukraine in 2016? Ten years later we’re all fascists for not wanting to blank check the defense of a non-NATO member. Our allies are too spineless and the liberal establishment too retarded to run this alliance. And the latter is certainly not clever enough to keep NATO alive against conservative isolationism. On your way.
No wait, Obama sent the Ukrainian people blankets and MRE's. Trump sent them Stingers. The Pet Rock just sent pallets of cash and said Russia could take "just a little bit" of the country. I swear TDS is real and should be clinically treated.
Sure. Our "allies" have got our backs. Just look at the Straits of Hormuz. It's THEIR interests, THEIR economies, that are being hurt. Are they there?
No.
The US has the strength and authority to tell them to jump, and to make it clear how high and for how long, and jump they damn well better if they want the US to be there when the shit hits the fan. And it will, probably sooner than later, given the idiotic immigration policies of Britain and the EU.
Trump seems to be the one president who has understood that. If China is a paper tiger, then the European countries are toilet paper pussies.
I belly laughed out loud on that one Wally. Your point is that Don is groveling for help from "toilet paper pussies", to do a job he's apparently admitting he started but now can't finish? How beta of him!
Don's faux tough guy routine was exposed long ago, no one buys the ever changing lies except the ever loyal MAGA base-they've even morphed into neomagacons for gods sake. They literally swallow anything-even MAGA's Middle East war:). My personal fave is how they excuse the massive corruption as Don pockets corrupt crypto loot from foreign adversaries-I just love that...
Don't hold your breath for other countries to rush forward for a mission we won't undertake ourselves. Besides, Don can't even keep his lies straight, no one remotely knows what he wants, including himself. One day he's groveling for help, the next day we don't need help because we've already won, the next day we're gonna commit war crimes, then we're gonna extinguish their 6000 year old civilization, the next day it's all nato's fault, the next day the goal is regime change, then getting the nukes, then it's promoting regional peace, then it's unconditional surrender, then its annihilate their navy, then it's to get their oil.
Maybe you're right, and cagey ole Don has em right where he wants em. The global chaos he's wrought was part of the plan from the beginning as he deftly implements his geopolitical master plan. Maybe. But maybe I'm right, and he's just an aging, angry, slurring, incoherent imbecile who has no clue what he's doing.
Other than Bibi, who's a winner so far in MAGA's Middle East war?
Aha! Yes, you're right. It's all a clever ruse. 4D chess. Maybe 5D. I shoulda known darn it. I bet it goes back to 2015 when he started meticulously laying the groundwork by criticizing past Middle East wars, and vowing he'd never start one. He even faked out MAGA themselves, many of whom were drawn to his long trumpeted anti-war rhetoric, and made it the basis of their votes for him.
It's a brilliant strategery now that you've pointed it out. Start a war in the Middle East and cause global chaos as a head fake to trick Europe into showing their hand. Now he holds those weenies in the palm of his hand. Wow, just wow, that's so smart.
He's just gettin better with age, imagine how crafty he'll be at 82!
But, why are so many MAGA luminaries being so mean to him? Tucker, Alex, MTG, Nick, Candace, Megyn, all the leading figures of the "new" right don't seem to be read in on the master plan?
Be well Wally, and make sure you buy lotsa $Trump coin.
You do realize, you didn't even try to debate any of the points I made. Thanks for demonstrating the limitations of the TDS afflicted. For once, try to debate an issue without resorting to Trump and his supposed failings. Just once, deal with the facts. Are you even capable of that? I doubt it.
I don’t have Trump Denial Syndrome, that’s MAGA:) I merely regurgitate the incoherent slop he utters, and MAGA folks struggle to defend it.
I addressed your main point, that Don started MAGA’s Middle East war as a tactic to put Europe on the ”hot seat”, it was a 4D head fake to flesh em out, I’m just not sure what is being revealed. Are you sticking with that war justification? Or, did Don gaslight y’all on this too, kinda like “draining the swamp” as he pockets billions:)
The nuclear point is unserious. Our own government intelligence refutes that there was an imminent nuclear threat. Even Tulsi testified to that. And Don’s public statements are incoherent. First he had “completely and totally obliterated” the program. Then we’re told the invasion was necessary because they were a week or two from a bomb. Then he stopped the campaign short of actually extracting the material. His own government reports show he’s lying.
Make sure to read his social media bleats from the last week. Read every word. But brace yourself first. Then ask yourself, who is more incoherent, Don or Joepa?
Up until two weeks ago, the entire world believed that Iran's missile capacity was limited to short distances - based on Iran's own claims. Suddenly, we discover that their capability included London, Paris and Berlin.
By the same token, Iran has enriched uranium well past the point of peaceful use, to just under military grade at 60% U235. This is far beyond the 3.67-5% a civilian reactor needs (Bushehr) or the 20% research requirement for the Tehran Reactor.
Why? Also, why does Iran refuse to give up this enriched uranium, even after the US has said it will provide Iran with all the lower enriched uranium it needs for peaceful purposes?
Then, imagine the temptation for Iran to put a nuclear weapon on one of those missiles. You don't let your three year old run around waving a knife, or let him near your gun locker, right? The mullahs are worse than three year olds, because they know better but the prospect of 72 virgins means they don't care if the west should retaliate. Even the Japanese weren't this fanatical in WW2.
You also have not considered the fact that dealing with Iran creates a significant containment factor regarding China. China has been buying sanctioned oil at well under world prices from Iran. That now ends, which hinders China's attempts at hegemony in both the Middle East and the Pacific.
Ignore Trump's hyperbole. That's who he is. Pay attention to the facts, such as those I just posted. Trump is a sideshow, whether that's deliberate or not is irrelevant.
Laughter is often the response of people who don't understand what's really going on. It's a true favourite response of brain dead liberals who are stuck for an answer that doesn't rely on TDS.
America doesn't need anyone to do this - that should be obvious to any fool, even you. Putting Europe on the hot seat in this way forces them to respond and one of two things happens. They step up to the plate, or they don't. If not, Trump justifies whatever he feels needs to be done to deal with them. NATO's only real strength is the US, and this is one way Trump can demonstrate that to them. If you even start to think that Europe wants NATO dissolved, and to lose the protection of the US, you're nuts.
People like you forget - Iran lied about their missile capability. Try, if your weak mind can manage it, to imagine a nuclear armed Iran with the ability to target London, Berlin and Paris. Britain has admitted it can't defend London from ICBMs, I doubt France is in any better shape.
Be grateful Trump has acted here, because if he had not, this world would have soon been in a very bad place.
I know, you'll deny that. It. simply demonstrates that you don't have the intelligence you think you do.
I had hoped part of the strategy was to create a route for China to export through intermediaries which would create an incentive for them to start to add value. Of course, it would also create costs for China and funding for the intermediaries. Almost, a China 2025 mirror image. The final benefit is to provide a soft replacement rather than an abrupt "cold turkey".
I wrote my comment below before I saw this NY Times article referenced by Oren in today's Commonplace post, "‘Definitely a Sham’: As Tariffs Climb, Trade Fraud and Accounting Tricks Proliferate" (NY Times, April 7, 2026).
And yes, there is corruption and fraud, done by China and our guys, too. I feel sorry for the American importer who pays more in tariff fees because he follows the rules. Not fair. You can bet other countries will do some fraud, too. What a mess.
It's going to take a lot of work and commitment to detail to make sure we aren't receiving unwanted made in China products from third countries. I imagine we'll need to keep a check on corruption, too, where a company or source in a third country will be induced to transship something from China by way of a payoff ie. corruption.
I've lived in the Philippines, Vietnam and Mexico (I'm Mexican-American), and corruption is a way of life, and off-the-table payoffs can be quite widespread and tempting. China is overproducing and they want to unload their products in a big way, and corruption might ease the path. We have our work cut out for us.
From personal experience I know that China uses the same workaround strategy (manufacture most of the product in China then ship it elsewhere for finishing touches) to get around the Trade Agreement Act which requires Goverment equipment purchases to be sourced from U.S. or trade compliant countries.
Good article. The bilateral trade deficit is irrelevant and always has been, but the issue is larger than transshipments. When we import good from other low-cost nations, they are importing from China. We must be focused on reducing our overall trade deficit. We cannot rely on other countries to help us defend our industrial base.
For what it's worth, Chinese debt is spiraling even more rapidly than ours is. The Chinese debt-to-GDP ratio is now much higher than America's—over 300% for the last 5 quarters!—with banks transferring bad debt onto an entire tranche of perpetually negative-profit "zombie firms" rather than calling in the loans and eating the losses. https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2025/1223 (Article from end 2025; current projections are ≈335-350%)
When you say "bilateral trade deficit," I assume you're talking about trade between the US and China. That is definitely not irrelevant!!!! It's what put us in this mess. Sure, NAFTA did us no favors, but China's entry into the WTO brought the China Shock and its concomitant destruction of long established industries in the United States. Deaths of despair soared along with it.
That terrible NAFTA set the blueprint for China and its sad that it ever came into being, and that it did so without strong, enforceable protections for the workers who lost their jobs. They were pretty much left to their own devices, or told "learn to code." Sure. Even Robert Reich, Labor Secretary when NAFTA was signed, wishes more consideration and money for laid-off workers had been incorporated into NAFTA. Well, too late now.
But it was the China Shock that truly blew up the system. We need to close the trade deficit with China. It matters a lot. It sets a template. And not all countries get their cheap products from China. They make their own cheap products, too. We need to make more products in the United States and not be so reliant on other countries.
I agree with the problem you're diagnosing- my point is that we should be focusing on reducing our trade deficit in general (including, but not limited to, the deficit with China). China has caused many of the problems we face today, but it is not the only perpetrator. What difference does it make to me whether the cotton mill in my town closed because the factory was outsourced to China or if it was outsourced to India? Those jobs are gone either way.
China was the largest perpetrator of unfair trade practices (currency manipulation, stealing trade secrets...) and had the most exports to the United States. It's important that we take care of them first, and show that we mean business.
If India was the main perpetrator, then we would need to take care of them first. China dwarfs all other nations in terms of industrial production and exports. Also, now that we've lessened imports from China, China is flooding other countries with cheap imports, which threatens to demolish their industries.
Because of this, in January of this year, Mexico implemented tariffs of up to 50% on over 1,400 products imported from China. That said, though, we definitely need fair trade agreements with all countries, as you say, and have balanced trade.
Yes, we need balanced trade.
Excellent article thank you for this so important information to know. Keep up the great work Mr. Kishi.
So yeah, our trade genius and global military warlord has put a powerful architecture into place with 8 meaningless countries to keep China from getting around tarriffs. Wow. Cool! Oh, wait a minute, somebody’s got to monitor and enforce this. And oh, wait a minute, Trump can change his mind at any time, not that he ever would. Oh, and every other significant country in the world is now madly at work trying to figure out how to get around the US and the petrodollar. I guess the Iranians are inspiring some other places to do some out of box thinking. (Some people are saying that necessity is the mother of invention.)
But hey, it’s a start! Undreamed of prosperity is absolutely around the corner! Maybe in two weeks!
Get help. TDS doesn't look good on an adult, and you're badly infected.
Wouldn't it be nice if, instead of alienating our closest allies, we'd have rallied them to confront China collectively? Instead, Don's first year firmly cemented his America Alone strategery.
How ironic it's already come back to haunt him in the aftermath of launching MAGA's Middle East war.
The Greenland fiasco, threatening war crimes/genocide, switching sides in the Russia/Ukraine war, the Orban endorsement, the trashing of NATO, the personal insults, the dementia riddled and incoherent rants, random taco tariffs, the flouting of international law and our constitution, it's been quite a year for the toddler in chief. All topped off by launching a foolish war without consultation with, or concern for, our allies. Don has been left desperately casting about for someone to save him, but alas, he's left himself on a deserted island.
Thats the good news. The bad news is that this 80+ year old stooge has nearly 3 years left in office. Buckle up, the damage has just begun.
Good luck America.
Jesus is our real problem that people like you are just illiterate?
Obama ran a full court diplomacy campaign to keep our allies from partnering with China on the AIB and our special relationship cousins, the British, were the first of dozens of allies to cross the line.
Got all that? No resentment at Trumpian bluster, no retaliation over our tariffs. None of that had happened. Our effete, fuckwit allies just flat out refused to cooperate with a substantially urgent request from a President they greatly preferred dealing with. That’s what happens when you “rally them to confront China collectively.” They bitch out because they want to have their cake and eat it to.
Don has made his antipathy for fellow democracies quite clear. You just did as well. So, why is Don so upset that the nations he publicly derides don’t want to bail him out of MAGA’s Middle East war, a war he chose to launch without their knowledge? Why the flip flop? He’s old, maybe he forgot he opposes them? Or, is he desperate because his lack of a strategery for MAGA’s Middle East war has placed him in a corner from which he can’t extricate himself?
And hey, at least we still have Eswatini, Russia, Hungary, El Salvador, Congo, Uganda, Rwanda, Ghana, Equitorial Guinea, South Sudan, and Venezuela as allies:) Bring on Cuba!
The answer to your question is our allies would rather trade China for marginal commercial gain than stand with us, so why bother confronting China or Russia?
The flip flop is dipshits like you. Did you notice or care that Obama said there’s nothing we could do to protect Ukraine in 2016? Ten years later we’re all fascists for not wanting to blank check the defense of a non-NATO member. Our allies are too spineless and the liberal establishment too retarded to run this alliance. And the latter is certainly not clever enough to keep NATO alive against conservative isolationism. On your way.
No wait, Obama sent the Ukrainian people blankets and MRE's. Trump sent them Stingers. The Pet Rock just sent pallets of cash and said Russia could take "just a little bit" of the country. I swear TDS is real and should be clinically treated.
Hey! Come on... everyone needs blankets and MREs to eat. Be nice. /sarc :)
But, why did Don flip flop and grovel to the spineless for help with MAGA's Middle East war?
Maybe to make it clear how useless they are? Then, with proof of that in hand, he can take steps to deal with it. He's made them reveal themselves.
Sure. Our "allies" have got our backs. Just look at the Straits of Hormuz. It's THEIR interests, THEIR economies, that are being hurt. Are they there?
No.
The US has the strength and authority to tell them to jump, and to make it clear how high and for how long, and jump they damn well better if they want the US to be there when the shit hits the fan. And it will, probably sooner than later, given the idiotic immigration policies of Britain and the EU.
Trump seems to be the one president who has understood that. If China is a paper tiger, then the European countries are toilet paper pussies.
I belly laughed out loud on that one Wally. Your point is that Don is groveling for help from "toilet paper pussies", to do a job he's apparently admitting he started but now can't finish? How beta of him!
Don's faux tough guy routine was exposed long ago, no one buys the ever changing lies except the ever loyal MAGA base-they've even morphed into neomagacons for gods sake. They literally swallow anything-even MAGA's Middle East war:). My personal fave is how they excuse the massive corruption as Don pockets corrupt crypto loot from foreign adversaries-I just love that...
Don't hold your breath for other countries to rush forward for a mission we won't undertake ourselves. Besides, Don can't even keep his lies straight, no one remotely knows what he wants, including himself. One day he's groveling for help, the next day we don't need help because we've already won, the next day we're gonna commit war crimes, then we're gonna extinguish their 6000 year old civilization, the next day it's all nato's fault, the next day the goal is regime change, then getting the nukes, then it's promoting regional peace, then it's unconditional surrender, then its annihilate their navy, then it's to get their oil.
Maybe you're right, and cagey ole Don has em right where he wants em. The global chaos he's wrought was part of the plan from the beginning as he deftly implements his geopolitical master plan. Maybe. But maybe I'm right, and he's just an aging, angry, slurring, incoherent imbecile who has no clue what he's doing.
Other than Bibi, who's a winner so far in MAGA's Middle East war?
Aha! Yes, you're right. It's all a clever ruse. 4D chess. Maybe 5D. I shoulda known darn it. I bet it goes back to 2015 when he started meticulously laying the groundwork by criticizing past Middle East wars, and vowing he'd never start one. He even faked out MAGA themselves, many of whom were drawn to his long trumpeted anti-war rhetoric, and made it the basis of their votes for him.
It's a brilliant strategery now that you've pointed it out. Start a war in the Middle East and cause global chaos as a head fake to trick Europe into showing their hand. Now he holds those weenies in the palm of his hand. Wow, just wow, that's so smart.
He's just gettin better with age, imagine how crafty he'll be at 82!
But, why are so many MAGA luminaries being so mean to him? Tucker, Alex, MTG, Nick, Candace, Megyn, all the leading figures of the "new" right don't seem to be read in on the master plan?
Be well Wally, and make sure you buy lotsa $Trump coin.
You do realize, you didn't even try to debate any of the points I made. Thanks for demonstrating the limitations of the TDS afflicted. For once, try to debate an issue without resorting to Trump and his supposed failings. Just once, deal with the facts. Are you even capable of that? I doubt it.
I don’t have Trump Denial Syndrome, that’s MAGA:) I merely regurgitate the incoherent slop he utters, and MAGA folks struggle to defend it.
I addressed your main point, that Don started MAGA’s Middle East war as a tactic to put Europe on the ”hot seat”, it was a 4D head fake to flesh em out, I’m just not sure what is being revealed. Are you sticking with that war justification? Or, did Don gaslight y’all on this too, kinda like “draining the swamp” as he pockets billions:)
The nuclear point is unserious. Our own government intelligence refutes that there was an imminent nuclear threat. Even Tulsi testified to that. And Don’s public statements are incoherent. First he had “completely and totally obliterated” the program. Then we’re told the invasion was necessary because they were a week or two from a bomb. Then he stopped the campaign short of actually extracting the material. His own government reports show he’s lying.
Make sure to read his social media bleats from the last week. Read every word. But brace yourself first. Then ask yourself, who is more incoherent, Don or Joepa?
Up until two weeks ago, the entire world believed that Iran's missile capacity was limited to short distances - based on Iran's own claims. Suddenly, we discover that their capability included London, Paris and Berlin.
By the same token, Iran has enriched uranium well past the point of peaceful use, to just under military grade at 60% U235. This is far beyond the 3.67-5% a civilian reactor needs (Bushehr) or the 20% research requirement for the Tehran Reactor.
Why? Also, why does Iran refuse to give up this enriched uranium, even after the US has said it will provide Iran with all the lower enriched uranium it needs for peaceful purposes?
Then, imagine the temptation for Iran to put a nuclear weapon on one of those missiles. You don't let your three year old run around waving a knife, or let him near your gun locker, right? The mullahs are worse than three year olds, because they know better but the prospect of 72 virgins means they don't care if the west should retaliate. Even the Japanese weren't this fanatical in WW2.
You also have not considered the fact that dealing with Iran creates a significant containment factor regarding China. China has been buying sanctioned oil at well under world prices from Iran. That now ends, which hinders China's attempts at hegemony in both the Middle East and the Pacific.
Ignore Trump's hyperbole. That's who he is. Pay attention to the facts, such as those I just posted. Trump is a sideshow, whether that's deliberate or not is irrelevant.
Laughter is often the response of people who don't understand what's really going on. It's a true favourite response of brain dead liberals who are stuck for an answer that doesn't rely on TDS.
America doesn't need anyone to do this - that should be obvious to any fool, even you. Putting Europe on the hot seat in this way forces them to respond and one of two things happens. They step up to the plate, or they don't. If not, Trump justifies whatever he feels needs to be done to deal with them. NATO's only real strength is the US, and this is one way Trump can demonstrate that to them. If you even start to think that Europe wants NATO dissolved, and to lose the protection of the US, you're nuts.
People like you forget - Iran lied about their missile capability. Try, if your weak mind can manage it, to imagine a nuclear armed Iran with the ability to target London, Berlin and Paris. Britain has admitted it can't defend London from ICBMs, I doubt France is in any better shape.
Be grateful Trump has acted here, because if he had not, this world would have soon been in a very bad place.
I know, you'll deny that. It. simply demonstrates that you don't have the intelligence you think you do.
I had hoped part of the strategy was to create a route for China to export through intermediaries which would create an incentive for them to start to add value. Of course, it would also create costs for China and funding for the intermediaries. Almost, a China 2025 mirror image. The final benefit is to provide a soft replacement rather than an abrupt "cold turkey".
This has got to include Russia. That is going to take a while but normalizing relations with Russia is a first step as is shutting down EU/UK war.
I wrote my comment below before I saw this NY Times article referenced by Oren in today's Commonplace post, "‘Definitely a Sham’: As Tariffs Climb, Trade Fraud and Accounting Tricks Proliferate" (NY Times, April 7, 2026).
And yes, there is corruption and fraud, done by China and our guys, too. I feel sorry for the American importer who pays more in tariff fees because he follows the rules. Not fair. You can bet other countries will do some fraud, too. What a mess.
It's going to take a lot of work and commitment to detail to make sure we aren't receiving unwanted made in China products from third countries. I imagine we'll need to keep a check on corruption, too, where a company or source in a third country will be induced to transship something from China by way of a payoff ie. corruption.
I've lived in the Philippines, Vietnam and Mexico (I'm Mexican-American), and corruption is a way of life, and off-the-table payoffs can be quite widespread and tempting. China is overproducing and they want to unload their products in a big way, and corruption might ease the path. We have our work cut out for us.
From personal experience I know that China uses the same workaround strategy (manufacture most of the product in China then ship it elsewhere for finishing touches) to get around the Trade Agreement Act which requires Goverment equipment purchases to be sourced from U.S. or trade compliant countries.