"A rational Canadian leader would double down on North American strength. Coordinate with the United States on sectoral defenses against Chinese overcapacity, pair them with stricter rules-of-origin enforcement, and block transshipment. "
Umm, this *was* long standing Canadian policy right up to December 2024, when all the "51st State" talk started up. Trump (and the entire US administration) are making closer coordination with the US politically impossible here.
I am struggling to imagine what other response from us you could be expecting given how the Administration is acting. Bessent was musing *today* about how good Alberta would look flying the Stars and Stripes. Jesus Christ. You all know we get US news up here right?
Was the relationship perfect? Probably not, and there was already a lot of dissatisfaction with the leadership of Justin Trudeau. All Trump had to do was keep his mouth shut and he'd certainly be dealing with a Conservative Prime Minister right now instead of Carney. As it is, nobody up here has the slightest idea what this administration is trying to get from us, other than lasting enmity.
Perfectly put. It's amazing how none of this is even mentioned in this piece as though this is a simple business transaction gone wrong. There are other factors at play (Arctic security and Greenland also aren't mentioned) and little to no weight is given to them, which is why this analysis almost gets the situation completely reversed. All the economic gravity that the US has on Canada is precisely why it should be understood just how difficult it would have been for the PM to say these things (and more importantly for them to resonate widely within Canada). Nobody wanted this.
As I said below, I've noticed a few pieces here on Commonplace where the authors seem to be imagining a US that has a sanewashed version of Trump's policies, but *does not have Donald Trump as President*, and then expressing puzzlement at the way the world is actually reacting.
a rather insidious trait of the folks who try to glaze MAGA with an intellectual patina is exactly what you said- "It's amazing how none of this is even mentioned in this piece as though this is a simple business transaction gone wrong." they just ignore all the egregiousness associated with these moves and act like the MAGA suggestions are normal and surely fair and rational for all sides.
"All Trump had to do was keep his mouth shut and he'd certainly be dealing with a Conservative Prime Minister right now instead of Carney."
Right now, Trump is doing everything he can to antagonize conservatives all around the world.
National conservatism is supposed to believe that countries should focus on their own distinctives, rather than adopting a homogenizing cosmopolitanism. Yet Trump is expecting the rest of the world to act as though they love him more than they love their own national conservative leaders. Even neoconservatives aren't that imperialistic!
“All Trump had to do was keep his mouth shut and he'd certainly be dealing with a Conservative Prime Minister right now instead of Carney” - that is probably true but as we all know Trump can’t keep his mouth shut.
Nonetheless, TDS is real and Canada has a bad case of it. This has caused Canadians to react emotionally and irrationally in response, and embarked on a self-destructive path, and this after ten years of insane Liberal policies that have left Canada dramatically weakened already.
The fact is Canada’s geographic and economic realities haven’t changed, and aren’t likely to. The fact that Trump is the big bad face of the shifting world order ought not to give license to Canadians to not take it seriously, which appears to be the case.
First of all, yes, *of course* we (not just Carney but all of us, even the ones who didn't vote for him) find Trump's remarks to be threatening, offensive, and insulting. That was exactly their intent! "Derangement" implies that we are misreading the situation somehow.
Secondly, *we know* our current geographic and economic situation... no need for you to tell us. Being useful to the United States (ie: designing our economy around US trade) has been our policy for 80 years, and up till now seemed like a pretty good idea. Increasing our economic alternatives to the US is a tall order, but it would seem to be our only path to survival.
Thirdly, if this is a 'self destructive path" we're on, what do you suggest we do differently? There is NOTHING ON OFFER from the US except for threats. Nothing. There has not been a single carrot, it has been all stick. We are being deindustrialized in real time by our current dependence on US exports, and we literally don't know what the hell we're supposed to do about it. There hasn't even been an ask. There has been nothing.
So excuuuuuuuuuse us while we figure it out what the hell we're supposed to do here.
While Trump is indeed insane, the Alberta comments should not be objectionable if that's what the local population wants. There's maybe a Georgist-type argument to be made that Alberta having lots of oil is a geographic contingency that the people who happen to live there shouldn't be able to extract rent from, but that can be negotiated.
I can't take an otherwise well written response seriously when you omit raising taxes. It's possibly the most grotesque US decision of the past two decades to fight two wars on a credit card. Anyone who defends now that is a charlatan. As for returning factories - if the rule of law continues to deteriorate, no one will invest here at the scale needed to accomplish it. As for the tariffs - they are a revenue source for the executive independent of the legislature and that is exactly what caused the English civil war, because they believed it enabled personal tyranny, which is exactly where this will lead. Either way it's clear that the US may face war with an actual peer nation in the near future, which hasn't happened since WW2, and this current leadership isn't the one to put me at ease about preparation. So many declarations about deals but nothing about contracts signed...
I would say the actual problem was that Poilievre is or at least was nothing more than a run of the mill Neo-conservative. The real problem is that we disconnected trade from mutual defense and shared values back in the 90s. It's created an international tragedy of the commons.
You can see how many cling to this false belief in the way that, even the author warns that Carney risks Mexico getting it very own trade deal. In reality Mexico has been getting American and Canadian factories and jobs for the last three decades. We all know this is because you can dump more pollution and treat the workers worse then you can in our nations. That's before you add in the money and blood we expect Canada to spend helping us protect the foreign supply chains feeding those Mexican factories.
Really stop and think, why should Canada accept the same trade deal as Mexico when you guys have been willing to send your army to help fight terrorists as well as train in Europe with NATO. You've sent your navy to help chase pirates and do freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea. Your leaders should be outright demanding better treatment, but that would mean accepting that Trump's right. Free trade and free defense has failed.
Carney is a hopeless globalist that can't or won't admit that hollowing out Canada's industrial base even while flooding it's communities with massive quantities of cheap foreign labor, was a bad idea. Poilievre isn't much better. You guys need someone that is willing to recognize how useful and valuable you are to America, and actually bargain accordingly.
"hollowing out Canada's industrial base even while flooding it's communities with massive quantities of cheap foreign labor, was a bad idea"
Like the original author, you appear to have written your comment without any reference to events of the last fourteen months. For example, speaking of deindustrialization, Canada's auto and steel sectors are imploding right now, ENTIRELY due to Trump. (And the administration has already told us: "you won't make cars anymore and there's nothing you can do about it")
"Being useful to America" has been Canadian policy for 80 years, and this is where it has gotten us: threats of economic ruin and annexation. You suggest we "bargain harder" How? You can't bargain with somebody when you a) don't know what they want, and b) when you don't have much leverage or many alternatives. (Look at a map). As Carney said: "The US wants to break us so that they can own us".
Like most Canadians, you appear to have formed your opinions about Trump without any reference to how much larger a role Canada had in the American automotive industry before NAFTA, then you have today.
Free trade hasn't worked. It's a funny world where Mexico has caught on and raised it's tariffs on Chinese products while the Canadians are lowing tariffs on China to spite America.
Of course we currently live in a world where European politicians can't cut their own people's welfare, at least not and survive the next election, to defend their own backyard. Yet they believe American politicians can raise taxes and cut America's welfare programs to defend Europe's backyard.
Like Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick said in Davos, all the western nations should take the same attitude as America first. So back to you. Why should Canadians help provide security for Chinese ships carrying African raw materials back to China, and send it's troops to Europe and the Middle East, just to get the same tariffs as Mexico, who aids drug smugglers and human traffickers?
Until you can answer that question, your own politicians are the ones disrespecting the Canadian people. Not Trump. He's just screwing with Carney.
Eventually America will have to raise taxes and cut some benefits simply to service the debt we've run up with the world graciously buying up tnotes for the past thirty years. It's worth nothing that America has been losing manufacturing jobs since... a special day... so it's not going well. It will get worse. The entire tariff strategy is illegal and not set by law. Ultimately, what goes by decree is not worth investing billions in and it shows in the figures.
Yes America will have to reform and cut spending. Too many don't understand that if our Governments just keep trying to borrow more and more money, this will crowd out the private companies and individual from being able to get the money they need. Ultimately slowing the economy. This is an even bigger deal when you realize that all those boomers in America and Europe will now start drawing down their saving which will shrink the big pile of wealth we've been using to finance everything.
Trumps tariffs may or may not be legal but you can expect plenty more attempts to read the financial tea leaves. In reality, it took years to move all those American factories to China and Mexico, it will take a bit yet to move enough back to really see how things go. Either way, free trade is dead. People aren't paying attention to just how much those global supply chains rely on the might and power of the US navy.
If we don't start seeing a lot more American built ships carrying higher value added American made goods, the voter across this great land will start telling our politicians to go suck an egg if they think we will accept deeper cuts to Social Security or higher taxes to protect Jeff Bezos's Chinese suppliers.
That's why we got a loud mouth New Yorker for a president in the first place. The theory that this is all in our interest might sell with the rich asset owning class that is profiting off all these cheap imports, but it is falling flat with us rubes that get stuck with the tab.
Well, I'm a Carney guy so I'm not sure "Canada went completely insane" is the right characterization (and I have absolutely no use for Tristan Hopper whatsoever)... but yes, that cataclysmic change to polling was Trump, 100%.
I've noticed a few pieces here on Commonplace where the authors seem to be imagining a US that has a sanewashed version of Trump's policies, but *does not have Donald Trump as President*, and then expressing puzzlement at the way the world is actually reacting.
[Turning to China] "would turn Canada into a permanent resource economy"
...kind of like Trump saying that he wants all automaking out of Canada.
Don't pretend that big, bad China is the one trying to deindustrialize Canada when Trump slapped 50% tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel.
Does America have stronger cards? Sure. But it doesn't have an unlimited number of cards. Who do you want to play them against? Traditional enemies, or traditional allies?
China and Russia are not traditional enemies. We have fought only one shooting war against China and none against Russia while being allies in some really big wars. We have fought two big wars against both Germany and the UK. France is a traditional friend fallen on bad times.
Seriously? Canada and Russia are not traditional enemies?
The US fought the cold war against Spain, did it?
Vietnam? Korea? They were supported by Australia?
200,000 Chinese died in the Korean War against the US and allies ... doesn't this make them a traditional enemy?
Also, the Canadians hold a lot of the cards, can cut the US out of it's Uranium, that the US buys a lot of ... they can cut the US out of Potash, where will it go then and so on and on ...
I mean, aside from the oil and the rest of it, why on Earth would Trump start a fight with Canada.
True, it would be slow going for Canada, but that is just part of the deal, isn't it, to move away from a neighbor that has become belligerent to you. The US needs Canada more than Canada needs the US, just being next door isn't a great argument for trade between the two nations.
When Trump is indicted or in 3 years, the next President will have to work like a dog to heal the wounds left by Trump and that person will need to start with Canada and Mexico.
Since Europe is way further down the road of rejecting that heritage than we are, I think they owe us something for protecting it until some new civilization there wants to reanimate Western Civilization. Perhaps Amelia and Maria will prevail but that is not the way to bet.
Calling all Don Defenders. Do us all a favor and listen to Don's entire speech and Q & A in Davos, then Carney's speech. Every word. In one, you'll see a slurring, confused, incoherent, narcissistic, sociopathic, imbecile babbling about random topics. Racist slurs of Somalia, the stolen 2020 election and how people would "soon be prosecuted", an incoherent windmill rant, repeatedly confusing Iceland and Greenland, NATO "called me Daddy", it's mind numbing. Horrifying. The serial lies, the ignorance, the dementia, the condescension, the threats, the whining. Embarrassing doesn't come close to describing how I felt as this aging, angry stooge represented our nation.
In the other, you'll see a calm, focused, intelligent, articulate, advocate for his country. Make fun of him if you will. Ironically, Oren basically makes Carney's case. Obviously the path Carney articulated is not where he wants to be, he understands the short term pain this all inflicts on his country. He also understands there is far more at stake long term now that Don, with the acquiescence of establishment elites like Oren and Congressional Republicans, has declared the US to be a hostile, unpredictable power that seeks to take advantage of them, perhaps to the point of "annexation". Hence, he's embarking on a long term path that he knows is difficult for the obvious reasons Oren lists, but he's been left with no choice.
The world will continue to humor Don in the short term, muddling through with crypto cash, gold bars, golf courses, 747's, whatever tribute they must pay to the mad king. But make no mistake, they're also altering their longer term strategies, with America as a smaller part. One would think, given the "new" rights obsession with China, DonOrenomics might seek to rally our fellow democracies to confron them? Instead, they piss on them. Our closest friends. Friends who have shed blood on our behalf.
Oren musta got a nasty call after that last column where he peeped outta his foxhole to lob a weak kneed criticism of Don. What else could explain obsessing over Carney, when the speech that mattered most was Don's. World leaders just got an up close look at our incoherent leader, his decline, his ignorance. Sadly, Oren is the first one to his defense...
Rational and Canadian should never be used in in same sentence. The whole culture is based on not being the US as opposed to being something. About 90% of the population lives within 100 miles of the border. BTW it's canola oil but rape seed. Canada is the Saudi Arabia of this stuff and is vulnerable to RFK's efforts to ban seed oil.
"The whole culture is based on not being the US as opposed to being something."
This is only since Pierre Trudeau. The first 80% of the years of Canadian existence had a positive content of a genuine national conservatism. The same was only true for about the first 10% of American existence. America was was liberal long before Canada was, even if Canada has been sprinting to catch up and get ahead in recent decades.
Rational and Canadian or Rational and American .. it all depends who you are talking to or about ie Trump is not rational or sane. He's an egomaniac, a narcissist of the worse sort. and likes young people sexually, so he's a perv and needs to be president less he be tried and sent to a nice jail cell.
I saw Oren on Breaking Points a few times and thought he was rational, I might have been somewhat mistaken.
He said Canada doesn't hold 'the cards' which can be true, but it holds enough to put the US on its ass. No uranium, its nuclear energy takes a solid hit and the price for electricity goes through the roof. It loses Canadian oil, again, same result, the price of oil goes insane in the US and prices go up all over the world. No potash, who will the US turn to, Russia? You lose a planting season and prices soar and the US goes through a recession, big time.
So Rationally, the US president put the US into this pickle pot, not a very rational thing to do, and neither is blaming Canada for his arrogance.
IT is as if Trump wants the US to become a failed nation, as if there were somehow a lot of money to be made on a fire sale of all US corporations. *shrug*
Carney is writing censorship (hate speech) into law in Canada. We don't have a 1st Amendment & our charter of rights & freedoms still has wet ink on it (though it was penned by Trudeau's father) so the document isn't as revered here as the US Constitution is in the US.
I believe that Carney is an authoritarian...many of his other laws also deprive Canadians of rights. Trump is being accused of being authoritarian due to the 'extraction' of Maduro & the ICE raids.
I'm a former 'far left' Canadian who has been red pilled by the covid scam & see Trump doing what is necessary to gain some semblance of order & balance in his country. Biden went along with the globalists because he had dementia & possibly was corrupt. Carney was all in, along with the EU bureaucrats who are dragging the member states around by their noses.
To see trump smack Carney down made my day! More please...to the point where Canadians see the only path forward is to remove him.
This is not about economics; you intentionally focus on the unimportance of economics in this situation with your blind following of our I can’t even call him president because I’m so ashamed to be an American. This is about one person and it’s not Trump. It’s the person or person‘s pulling his strings like puppeteers acting like a bully with friends and neighbors and allies rather than working with these countries against the common bad elements out there, Russia, China, and the Middle East terror triangle. Trump complains. We’ve been treated unfairly. I’m 65 years old. I’m the first person in my family to go to college. I had an amazing legal career and retired comfortably. We enjoy great healthcare and freedoms found nowhere else in the world. Outsourcing work that no one here wanted to do in exchange for technology advances educational advances and medical advances
, not to mention significant investments in our country ,was a strategy adopted 40+ years ago. . I’m not sure why he thinks he’s making America great again. Certainly suspending constitutional rights based on fear mongering is not making America great. Just as telling the smartest business people in the world in Davos that he is essentially smarter than all of them and they are stupid and they have a bad economy and that they would all be speaking German or Japanese if it weren’t for the United States and that we “gave Greenland back“ after World War II and that the 2020 US elections were rigged just shows how stupid and narcissistic a man man he really is. We were great before him and we’re
gonna be great after he is out of office which cannot come a moment too soon
Reading all the reactions to Oren's insightful article, I finally understood why most of ancient civilizations have disappeared without invasion or natural disasters, collective suicides are well documented and perhaps under studied. Bravos to Oren and his staff for putting up a fight.
“by treating electric vehicles and canola as roughly equivalent trade-offs, Canada is confusing industrial platforms with bulk exports.”
Neo-Ricardian trade theory treats all exports the same. One of many assumptions that Ricardo got wrong. (Not to knock old Dave, his theories were fine for the world he grew up in, but a little thing called the Industrial Revolution was about to upend that world and most of his assumptions.)
Unfortunately, some people still haven't gotten the memo. (Here's looking at you, Tyler Cohen.)
If Canada wants to make the same mistakes as us and Germany... I say we let them. They'll learn. Natural consequences.
"But ultimately, he seems to be making President Trump’s precise point—it was the president who announced first that the United States would no longer display the sign, and Carney apparently thinks he was right to do so."
That's a great point - I hadn't considered that. As with NATO, Trump sorta blurts out what most people already know to be true.
I don't think the analogy of cards is necessarily helpful. This is a process that takes time, not a game where you flip cards at some finite point.
It seems the Carney strategy is more about expanding opportunities everywhere. While it's true that the US could walk out on USMCA with six months notice, there is a cost to that decision for the US. While the per capita cost to Canada is higher, there is not a net benefit to the US to walk away. But they still could.
The other point that I would make, as a Canadian it isn't choosing only trade with one party or trade with another. Its expanding our own industry and capacity. Again that's a process and not an overnight activity.
What maybe is not as obvious to those in the US is that for many in Canada, the past year had demonstrated that our relationship will never be the same. And that's a context that did not exist previously. So previous efforts to diversify were not as crucial as this one is. Thus, the price we are willing to pay in order to diversify has gone up.
The ‘performance of analysis’ re Carney’s speech. From the Manichean ‘it’s the US or China for trade’ to the trendy Republican misreading of Carney’s core point - it was an imperfect rules based system (with an acknowledgment of the US core role) but it was a system that delivered global outcomes so we tolerated its failings - versus the current hegemonic stance of the US administration. Disappointing.
... so many problems, Oren, and I am surprised you didn't catch them.
... I cheer on Trump with his tariffs on China. Neither Canada nor America have tariffs on car & parts that have a "certificate of origin". But WHY is it Canada's job to police American companies? Canada does not have an "assembler" company in North America. It is Ford, GM, and "Chrysler" that spec parts.... and none of these three spec for a "certificate of origin". Google a list of top selling cars in North America, with foreign content percentage.... it will shock you.
... And thinking that Canada cannot make our own cars? ... Well, what hood do you live in? I suspect your readers live in hoods with plenty of BMW X series SUVs? Before the factory was built in America to assemble these cars, they were produced by a Canadian company in Austria. And that huge Mercedes SUV is made in the same factory. Canadian companies can make a BWW, but not a Chevy Cruze? And I hate writing this, because this particular conversation is just too foolish. I would rather just say nothing to such ignorance. Oren, please... I love reading your stuff... but...
... Regarding lowering tariffs on "Chinese" electric cars. WTF are Americans saying? .... An American firm (Tesla) decides to service the Canadian market from China. And Canada decides to lower tariffs on Teslas imported from China.... and Americans are complaining. Really? Oren, please set your readers straight....
... AND why doesn't Trump do something about America's company, Tesla, not making cars for the Canadian market in America. Why is this Canada's problem? Teslas CANNOT get a certificate of origin, it is only 75% American content. NAFTA 2.0 requires 85%.
... Who is making the decision not to comply with NAFTA 2.0? .... Well, it is GM, Ford, Stellantis, and Tesla..... not "Canada". In fact Carney is supporting Tesla by lowering tariffs on their cars from China.
"A rational Canadian leader would double down on North American strength. Coordinate with the United States on sectoral defenses against Chinese overcapacity, pair them with stricter rules-of-origin enforcement, and block transshipment. "
Umm, this *was* long standing Canadian policy right up to December 2024, when all the "51st State" talk started up. Trump (and the entire US administration) are making closer coordination with the US politically impossible here.
I am struggling to imagine what other response from us you could be expecting given how the Administration is acting. Bessent was musing *today* about how good Alberta would look flying the Stars and Stripes. Jesus Christ. You all know we get US news up here right?
Was the relationship perfect? Probably not, and there was already a lot of dissatisfaction with the leadership of Justin Trudeau. All Trump had to do was keep his mouth shut and he'd certainly be dealing with a Conservative Prime Minister right now instead of Carney. As it is, nobody up here has the slightest idea what this administration is trying to get from us, other than lasting enmity.
Perfectly put. It's amazing how none of this is even mentioned in this piece as though this is a simple business transaction gone wrong. There are other factors at play (Arctic security and Greenland also aren't mentioned) and little to no weight is given to them, which is why this analysis almost gets the situation completely reversed. All the economic gravity that the US has on Canada is precisely why it should be understood just how difficult it would have been for the PM to say these things (and more importantly for them to resonate widely within Canada). Nobody wanted this.
As I said below, I've noticed a few pieces here on Commonplace where the authors seem to be imagining a US that has a sanewashed version of Trump's policies, but *does not have Donald Trump as President*, and then expressing puzzlement at the way the world is actually reacting.
a rather insidious trait of the folks who try to glaze MAGA with an intellectual patina is exactly what you said- "It's amazing how none of this is even mentioned in this piece as though this is a simple business transaction gone wrong." they just ignore all the egregiousness associated with these moves and act like the MAGA suggestions are normal and surely fair and rational for all sides.
"All Trump had to do was keep his mouth shut and he'd certainly be dealing with a Conservative Prime Minister right now instead of Carney."
Right now, Trump is doing everything he can to antagonize conservatives all around the world.
National conservatism is supposed to believe that countries should focus on their own distinctives, rather than adopting a homogenizing cosmopolitanism. Yet Trump is expecting the rest of the world to act as though they love him more than they love their own national conservative leaders. Even neoconservatives aren't that imperialistic!
“All Trump had to do was keep his mouth shut and he'd certainly be dealing with a Conservative Prime Minister right now instead of Carney” - that is probably true but as we all know Trump can’t keep his mouth shut.
Nonetheless, TDS is real and Canada has a bad case of it. This has caused Canadians to react emotionally and irrationally in response, and embarked on a self-destructive path, and this after ten years of insane Liberal policies that have left Canada dramatically weakened already.
The fact is Canada’s geographic and economic realities haven’t changed, and aren’t likely to. The fact that Trump is the big bad face of the shifting world order ought not to give license to Canadians to not take it seriously, which appears to be the case.
First of all, yes, *of course* we (not just Carney but all of us, even the ones who didn't vote for him) find Trump's remarks to be threatening, offensive, and insulting. That was exactly their intent! "Derangement" implies that we are misreading the situation somehow.
Secondly, *we know* our current geographic and economic situation... no need for you to tell us. Being useful to the United States (ie: designing our economy around US trade) has been our policy for 80 years, and up till now seemed like a pretty good idea. Increasing our economic alternatives to the US is a tall order, but it would seem to be our only path to survival.
Thirdly, if this is a 'self destructive path" we're on, what do you suggest we do differently? There is NOTHING ON OFFER from the US except for threats. Nothing. There has not been a single carrot, it has been all stick. We are being deindustrialized in real time by our current dependence on US exports, and we literally don't know what the hell we're supposed to do about it. There hasn't even been an ask. There has been nothing.
So excuuuuuuuuuse us while we figure it out what the hell we're supposed to do here.
While Trump is indeed insane, the Alberta comments should not be objectionable if that's what the local population wants. There's maybe a Georgist-type argument to be made that Alberta having lots of oil is a geographic contingency that the people who happen to live there shouldn't be able to extract rent from, but that can be negotiated.
I can't take an otherwise well written response seriously when you omit raising taxes. It's possibly the most grotesque US decision of the past two decades to fight two wars on a credit card. Anyone who defends now that is a charlatan. As for returning factories - if the rule of law continues to deteriorate, no one will invest here at the scale needed to accomplish it. As for the tariffs - they are a revenue source for the executive independent of the legislature and that is exactly what caused the English civil war, because they believed it enabled personal tyranny, which is exactly where this will lead. Either way it's clear that the US may face war with an actual peer nation in the near future, which hasn't happened since WW2, and this current leadership isn't the one to put me at ease about preparation. So many declarations about deals but nothing about contracts signed...
.
I would say the actual problem was that Poilievre is or at least was nothing more than a run of the mill Neo-conservative. The real problem is that we disconnected trade from mutual defense and shared values back in the 90s. It's created an international tragedy of the commons.
You can see how many cling to this false belief in the way that, even the author warns that Carney risks Mexico getting it very own trade deal. In reality Mexico has been getting American and Canadian factories and jobs for the last three decades. We all know this is because you can dump more pollution and treat the workers worse then you can in our nations. That's before you add in the money and blood we expect Canada to spend helping us protect the foreign supply chains feeding those Mexican factories.
Really stop and think, why should Canada accept the same trade deal as Mexico when you guys have been willing to send your army to help fight terrorists as well as train in Europe with NATO. You've sent your navy to help chase pirates and do freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea. Your leaders should be outright demanding better treatment, but that would mean accepting that Trump's right. Free trade and free defense has failed.
Carney is a hopeless globalist that can't or won't admit that hollowing out Canada's industrial base even while flooding it's communities with massive quantities of cheap foreign labor, was a bad idea. Poilievre isn't much better. You guys need someone that is willing to recognize how useful and valuable you are to America, and actually bargain accordingly.
"hollowing out Canada's industrial base even while flooding it's communities with massive quantities of cheap foreign labor, was a bad idea"
Like the original author, you appear to have written your comment without any reference to events of the last fourteen months. For example, speaking of deindustrialization, Canada's auto and steel sectors are imploding right now, ENTIRELY due to Trump. (And the administration has already told us: "you won't make cars anymore and there's nothing you can do about it")
"Being useful to America" has been Canadian policy for 80 years, and this is where it has gotten us: threats of economic ruin and annexation. You suggest we "bargain harder" How? You can't bargain with somebody when you a) don't know what they want, and b) when you don't have much leverage or many alternatives. (Look at a map). As Carney said: "The US wants to break us so that they can own us".
Like most Canadians, you appear to have formed your opinions about Trump without any reference to how much larger a role Canada had in the American automotive industry before NAFTA, then you have today.
Free trade hasn't worked. It's a funny world where Mexico has caught on and raised it's tariffs on Chinese products while the Canadians are lowing tariffs on China to spite America.
Of course we currently live in a world where European politicians can't cut their own people's welfare, at least not and survive the next election, to defend their own backyard. Yet they believe American politicians can raise taxes and cut America's welfare programs to defend Europe's backyard.
Like Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick said in Davos, all the western nations should take the same attitude as America first. So back to you. Why should Canadians help provide security for Chinese ships carrying African raw materials back to China, and send it's troops to Europe and the Middle East, just to get the same tariffs as Mexico, who aids drug smugglers and human traffickers?
Until you can answer that question, your own politicians are the ones disrespecting the Canadian people. Not Trump. He's just screwing with Carney.
Eventually America will have to raise taxes and cut some benefits simply to service the debt we've run up with the world graciously buying up tnotes for the past thirty years. It's worth nothing that America has been losing manufacturing jobs since... a special day... so it's not going well. It will get worse. The entire tariff strategy is illegal and not set by law. Ultimately, what goes by decree is not worth investing billions in and it shows in the figures.
Yes America will have to reform and cut spending. Too many don't understand that if our Governments just keep trying to borrow more and more money, this will crowd out the private companies and individual from being able to get the money they need. Ultimately slowing the economy. This is an even bigger deal when you realize that all those boomers in America and Europe will now start drawing down their saving which will shrink the big pile of wealth we've been using to finance everything.
Trumps tariffs may or may not be legal but you can expect plenty more attempts to read the financial tea leaves. In reality, it took years to move all those American factories to China and Mexico, it will take a bit yet to move enough back to really see how things go. Either way, free trade is dead. People aren't paying attention to just how much those global supply chains rely on the might and power of the US navy.
If we don't start seeing a lot more American built ships carrying higher value added American made goods, the voter across this great land will start telling our politicians to go suck an egg if they think we will accept deeper cuts to Social Security or higher taxes to protect Jeff Bezos's Chinese suppliers.
That's why we got a loud mouth New Yorker for a president in the first place. The theory that this is all in our interest might sell with the rich asset owning class that is profiting off all these cheap imports, but it is falling flat with us rubes that get stuck with the tab.
https://x.com/MichaelRoach/status/2014087670863954176/photo/1
Well, I'm a Carney guy so I'm not sure "Canada went completely insane" is the right characterization (and I have absolutely no use for Tristan Hopper whatsoever)... but yes, that cataclysmic change to polling was Trump, 100%.
I've noticed a few pieces here on Commonplace where the authors seem to be imagining a US that has a sanewashed version of Trump's policies, but *does not have Donald Trump as President*, and then expressing puzzlement at the way the world is actually reacting.
[Turning to China] "would turn Canada into a permanent resource economy"
...kind of like Trump saying that he wants all automaking out of Canada.
Don't pretend that big, bad China is the one trying to deindustrialize Canada when Trump slapped 50% tariffs on Canadian aluminum and steel.
Does America have stronger cards? Sure. But it doesn't have an unlimited number of cards. Who do you want to play them against? Traditional enemies, or traditional allies?
China and Russia are not traditional enemies. We have fought only one shooting war against China and none against Russia while being allies in some really big wars. We have fought two big wars against both Germany and the UK. France is a traditional friend fallen on bad times.
Seriously? Canada and Russia are not traditional enemies?
The US fought the cold war against Spain, did it?
Vietnam? Korea? They were supported by Australia?
200,000 Chinese died in the Korean War against the US and allies ... doesn't this make them a traditional enemy?
Also, the Canadians hold a lot of the cards, can cut the US out of it's Uranium, that the US buys a lot of ... they can cut the US out of Potash, where will it go then and so on and on ...
I mean, aside from the oil and the rest of it, why on Earth would Trump start a fight with Canada.
True, it would be slow going for Canada, but that is just part of the deal, isn't it, to move away from a neighbor that has become belligerent to you. The US needs Canada more than Canada needs the US, just being next door isn't a great argument for trade between the two nations.
When Trump is indicted or in 3 years, the next President will have to work like a dog to heal the wounds left by Trump and that person will need to start with Canada and Mexico.
Mexico actually has a unique identity with a long history. Not Canada.
OK, well, so much for America being a friend of Western Civilization.
Socrates, Aquinas, Shakespeare, Bach - America owes Europe nothing for this inheritance?
Since Europe is way further down the road of rejecting that heritage than we are, I think they owe us something for protecting it until some new civilization there wants to reanimate Western Civilization. Perhaps Amelia and Maria will prevail but that is not the way to bet.
> Since Europe is way further down the road of rejecting that heritage than we are
Serious question — have you been anywhere in Europe?
Yeah. I was even married to an European. Haven't been East though.
"China and Russia are not traditional enemies."
You appear to have been in a coma for the last 80 years, and I wish you well in your recovery.
Calling all Don Defenders. Do us all a favor and listen to Don's entire speech and Q & A in Davos, then Carney's speech. Every word. In one, you'll see a slurring, confused, incoherent, narcissistic, sociopathic, imbecile babbling about random topics. Racist slurs of Somalia, the stolen 2020 election and how people would "soon be prosecuted", an incoherent windmill rant, repeatedly confusing Iceland and Greenland, NATO "called me Daddy", it's mind numbing. Horrifying. The serial lies, the ignorance, the dementia, the condescension, the threats, the whining. Embarrassing doesn't come close to describing how I felt as this aging, angry stooge represented our nation.
In the other, you'll see a calm, focused, intelligent, articulate, advocate for his country. Make fun of him if you will. Ironically, Oren basically makes Carney's case. Obviously the path Carney articulated is not where he wants to be, he understands the short term pain this all inflicts on his country. He also understands there is far more at stake long term now that Don, with the acquiescence of establishment elites like Oren and Congressional Republicans, has declared the US to be a hostile, unpredictable power that seeks to take advantage of them, perhaps to the point of "annexation". Hence, he's embarking on a long term path that he knows is difficult for the obvious reasons Oren lists, but he's been left with no choice.
The world will continue to humor Don in the short term, muddling through with crypto cash, gold bars, golf courses, 747's, whatever tribute they must pay to the mad king. But make no mistake, they're also altering their longer term strategies, with America as a smaller part. One would think, given the "new" rights obsession with China, DonOrenomics might seek to rally our fellow democracies to confron them? Instead, they piss on them. Our closest friends. Friends who have shed blood on our behalf.
Oren musta got a nasty call after that last column where he peeped outta his foxhole to lob a weak kneed criticism of Don. What else could explain obsessing over Carney, when the speech that mattered most was Don's. World leaders just got an up close look at our incoherent leader, his decline, his ignorance. Sadly, Oren is the first one to his defense...
Good luck America.
Rational and Canadian should never be used in in same sentence. The whole culture is based on not being the US as opposed to being something. About 90% of the population lives within 100 miles of the border. BTW it's canola oil but rape seed. Canada is the Saudi Arabia of this stuff and is vulnerable to RFK's efforts to ban seed oil.
"The whole culture is based on not being the US as opposed to being something."
This is only since Pierre Trudeau. The first 80% of the years of Canadian existence had a positive content of a genuine national conservatism. The same was only true for about the first 10% of American existence. America was was liberal long before Canada was, even if Canada has been sprinting to catch up and get ahead in recent decades.
Rational and Canadian or Rational and American .. it all depends who you are talking to or about ie Trump is not rational or sane. He's an egomaniac, a narcissist of the worse sort. and likes young people sexually, so he's a perv and needs to be president less he be tried and sent to a nice jail cell.
I saw Oren on Breaking Points a few times and thought he was rational, I might have been somewhat mistaken.
He said Canada doesn't hold 'the cards' which can be true, but it holds enough to put the US on its ass. No uranium, its nuclear energy takes a solid hit and the price for electricity goes through the roof. It loses Canadian oil, again, same result, the price of oil goes insane in the US and prices go up all over the world. No potash, who will the US turn to, Russia? You lose a planting season and prices soar and the US goes through a recession, big time.
So Rationally, the US president put the US into this pickle pot, not a very rational thing to do, and neither is blaming Canada for his arrogance.
IT is as if Trump wants the US to become a failed nation, as if there were somehow a lot of money to be made on a fire sale of all US corporations. *shrug*
You are thinking small. The U.S. doesn't have to ask if it takes... and that option seems to be on the table.
"Rational and Canadian should never be used in in same sentence."
Thank you for your thoughtful contribution to the discussion.
Carney is writing censorship (hate speech) into law in Canada. We don't have a 1st Amendment & our charter of rights & freedoms still has wet ink on it (though it was penned by Trudeau's father) so the document isn't as revered here as the US Constitution is in the US.
I believe that Carney is an authoritarian...many of his other laws also deprive Canadians of rights. Trump is being accused of being authoritarian due to the 'extraction' of Maduro & the ICE raids.
I'm a former 'far left' Canadian who has been red pilled by the covid scam & see Trump doing what is necessary to gain some semblance of order & balance in his country. Biden went along with the globalists because he had dementia & possibly was corrupt. Carney was all in, along with the EU bureaucrats who are dragging the member states around by their noses.
To see trump smack Carney down made my day! More please...to the point where Canadians see the only path forward is to remove him.
This is not about economics; you intentionally focus on the unimportance of economics in this situation with your blind following of our I can’t even call him president because I’m so ashamed to be an American. This is about one person and it’s not Trump. It’s the person or person‘s pulling his strings like puppeteers acting like a bully with friends and neighbors and allies rather than working with these countries against the common bad elements out there, Russia, China, and the Middle East terror triangle. Trump complains. We’ve been treated unfairly. I’m 65 years old. I’m the first person in my family to go to college. I had an amazing legal career and retired comfortably. We enjoy great healthcare and freedoms found nowhere else in the world. Outsourcing work that no one here wanted to do in exchange for technology advances educational advances and medical advances
, not to mention significant investments in our country ,was a strategy adopted 40+ years ago. . I’m not sure why he thinks he’s making America great again. Certainly suspending constitutional rights based on fear mongering is not making America great. Just as telling the smartest business people in the world in Davos that he is essentially smarter than all of them and they are stupid and they have a bad economy and that they would all be speaking German or Japanese if it weren’t for the United States and that we “gave Greenland back“ after World War II and that the 2020 US elections were rigged just shows how stupid and narcissistic a man man he really is. We were great before him and we’re
gonna be great after he is out of office which cannot come a moment too soon
Reading all the reactions to Oren's insightful article, I finally understood why most of ancient civilizations have disappeared without invasion or natural disasters, collective suicides are well documented and perhaps under studied. Bravos to Oren and his staff for putting up a fight.
“by treating electric vehicles and canola as roughly equivalent trade-offs, Canada is confusing industrial platforms with bulk exports.”
Neo-Ricardian trade theory treats all exports the same. One of many assumptions that Ricardo got wrong. (Not to knock old Dave, his theories were fine for the world he grew up in, but a little thing called the Industrial Revolution was about to upend that world and most of his assumptions.)
Unfortunately, some people still haven't gotten the memo. (Here's looking at you, Tyler Cohen.)
If Canada wants to make the same mistakes as us and Germany... I say we let them. They'll learn. Natural consequences.
"But ultimately, he seems to be making President Trump’s precise point—it was the president who announced first that the United States would no longer display the sign, and Carney apparently thinks he was right to do so."
That's a great point - I hadn't considered that. As with NATO, Trump sorta blurts out what most people already know to be true.
Here is the last word on Canada challenging the US as a great power. Read the headline in the link
https://open.substack.com/pub/chrisbray/p/america-trembles-before-the-emerging?r=bivuf&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
Nice piece.
I don't think the analogy of cards is necessarily helpful. This is a process that takes time, not a game where you flip cards at some finite point.
It seems the Carney strategy is more about expanding opportunities everywhere. While it's true that the US could walk out on USMCA with six months notice, there is a cost to that decision for the US. While the per capita cost to Canada is higher, there is not a net benefit to the US to walk away. But they still could.
The other point that I would make, as a Canadian it isn't choosing only trade with one party or trade with another. Its expanding our own industry and capacity. Again that's a process and not an overnight activity.
What maybe is not as obvious to those in the US is that for many in Canada, the past year had demonstrated that our relationship will never be the same. And that's a context that did not exist previously. So previous efforts to diversify were not as crucial as this one is. Thus, the price we are willing to pay in order to diversify has gone up.
Do we now live in a world where questioning President Trump is forbidden?
The ‘performance of analysis’ re Carney’s speech. From the Manichean ‘it’s the US or China for trade’ to the trendy Republican misreading of Carney’s core point - it was an imperfect rules based system (with an acknowledgment of the US core role) but it was a system that delivered global outcomes so we tolerated its failings - versus the current hegemonic stance of the US administration. Disappointing.
If Canada de-industrializes from Chinese exports, so what? That's just comparative advantage.
... so many problems, Oren, and I am surprised you didn't catch them.
... I cheer on Trump with his tariffs on China. Neither Canada nor America have tariffs on car & parts that have a "certificate of origin". But WHY is it Canada's job to police American companies? Canada does not have an "assembler" company in North America. It is Ford, GM, and "Chrysler" that spec parts.... and none of these three spec for a "certificate of origin". Google a list of top selling cars in North America, with foreign content percentage.... it will shock you.
... And thinking that Canada cannot make our own cars? ... Well, what hood do you live in? I suspect your readers live in hoods with plenty of BMW X series SUVs? Before the factory was built in America to assemble these cars, they were produced by a Canadian company in Austria. And that huge Mercedes SUV is made in the same factory. Canadian companies can make a BWW, but not a Chevy Cruze? And I hate writing this, because this particular conversation is just too foolish. I would rather just say nothing to such ignorance. Oren, please... I love reading your stuff... but...
... Regarding lowering tariffs on "Chinese" electric cars. WTF are Americans saying? .... An American firm (Tesla) decides to service the Canadian market from China. And Canada decides to lower tariffs on Teslas imported from China.... and Americans are complaining. Really? Oren, please set your readers straight....
... AND why doesn't Trump do something about America's company, Tesla, not making cars for the Canadian market in America. Why is this Canada's problem? Teslas CANNOT get a certificate of origin, it is only 75% American content. NAFTA 2.0 requires 85%.
... Who is making the decision not to comply with NAFTA 2.0? .... Well, it is GM, Ford, Stellantis, and Tesla..... not "Canada". In fact Carney is supporting Tesla by lowering tariffs on their cars from China.
You appear to have a short time horizon or not understand the meaning of the word "traditional ".