32 Comments
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Brian Villanueva's avatar

Imagine for a moment if you ran your family the way we run America: you consistently "import" (buy) more than you "export" (sell or earn). If your spending consistently exceeds your income, there are 3 things you can do:

1) put it on the credit card.

2) go to the pawn shop.

3) get a higher paying job.

Obviously, #3 is preferable, since #1 and #2 both lead to insolvency eventually.

It's no different for a country. When we run a trade deficit nationally (our imports exceed our exports), those 3 choices are the same:

1) borrow money from foreigners (usually as corporate bonds or T-bills)

2) sell assets to foreigners (usually real estate and shares of US company stock)

3) make more stuff to sell foreigners (exports)

Just like in your family, #3 is preferable since #1 and #2 eventually lead to insolvency.

Fredrich Hayek groupies (libertarians) will deny this and throw lots of FUD to confuse you because they have degrees in economics and you don't. I also have a degree in economics, and I assure you, they're lying. It really is this simple.

As Adam Smith says in Wealth of Nations: "what is prudence for a family could hardly be folly for a great nation."

Brian Villanueva's avatar

BTW: To extend this analogy, a sales tax is basically a tariff on your family. It's a tax on what you "import" into your family (what you buy). Sales taxes are the most common taxes in the world and the most widely accepted as legitimate by both economists and the public. So why are people who are fine with a "family tariff" so adamantly opposed to a "national tariff"?

Richard's avatar

I also have a degree in economics and I endorse your comment.

Karl's avatar

Well golly, I have an economics degree too and I musta missed that class. If only I'd known how simple the world is, dagnabbit. I coulda got me some straight A's.

These pages are filled with folks who dislike America, who have unending complaints, and actually feel we're the exploited ones. They tell us how good we had it in the past, and how fervently they want to return to those times. I've increasingly felt the opposite the more I travel internationally, and the more I read history. It makes me wonder where they wish their kids could live their upcoming lives. And, which period are they pining to return to, given their fixation on the past? Here's hoping our decadence and grievance aren't our undoing.

Good luck America.

Daniel Archer's avatar

If you have an economics degree, then explain to me why all the economists keep failing to see that massive international tragedy of the commons that is created when you disconnect trade from mutual defense and rule of law. Tell me how the French can spend enough on defense while the Irish spend virtually nothing and use the saving to under cut the French on taxes. How long can Finland defend the undersea cables from Russia's shadow fleet while Google and Meta hide behind Ireland's lower taxes.

How long can Canada keep sending its navy to help patrol for pirates and protect the supply chains feeding those Mexican factories. You were sold a false ideology and cling to it despite the growing evidence that free trade is failing. Pride goes before the fall.

User's avatar
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Jan 26
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Daniel Archer's avatar

So was your father and grand father just as obstinate in believing Reagan and all his supply economists were nothing but wrong. It's never entered you mind that once again, all the grand poohbahs of finance and economics might have missed a fairly important issue when is comes to the economy. Like just how we should approach trading with non-allied and corrupt nations.

How about pull the blinders off your face and the fingers out of your ears and quit trying to prove that your ego is bigger than you intelligence.

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Jan 26
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Brian Villanueva's avatar

Believing that past wisdom might have some application to today's problems isn't the same as pining for a return to the past.

I think it was Chesterton who said, "Tradition means giving our ancestors a vote. It is the democracy of the dead as well as the living."

Karl's avatar
Jan 30Edited

I couldn't agree more. If only today's elite establishment-MAGA, would read a little of it. The "new" right is largely a grievance movement, seemingly unaware of the fortuitous historical period they've been lucky enough to inhabit. This lack of historical perspective leads them to boorish, incessant whining. The decadence is unbecoming. But, it's effective for politicians like Don, and elites like Oren. It's always easier to raise money from angry souls than build consensus for positive change, so ya gotta keep the complaints flowing.

Perhaps a stroll through Arlington, and a trip round the world, would teach them what actual hardship is.

We don't need to make America great again, we need to keep it great.

Good luck America.

Brian Villanueva's avatar

You are obviously a member of the professional managerial class, likely college educated and middle-class+. So am I. For us, the last 50 years have been a bonanza: cheap foreign stuff, cheap foreign labor, maximal individual autonomy.

For many of our fellow citizens though, these same trends have had very different effects. "Cheap foreign stuff" means your factory job closed. "Cheap foreign labor" means your construction job salary goes down or your landscaping business goes into the red. "Maximal individual autonomy" (the J.S. Mill guiding principle of our modern world) means your son is addicted to porn and you've started gambling on your phone.

So if I sound angry, that's why. I think production matters more than consumption. (Adam Smith was full of crap on that one.) I think trade balances matter (and I can prove why with a simple example if you care). I think offshoring (particularly of production key to our sovereignty) hurts America. Scott Bessent articulated these points well in his short WEF speech. The one thing Scott didn't mention (he's an econ guy) is that removing moral guardrails causes severe problems for many of my fellow citizens. So yes, I get angry when people promote policies that will benefit them and hurt most of my fellow Americans.

Karl's avatar

I fully understand the transformation our economy has been undergoing. I live in the most manufacturing intensive state in the nation, where most of our formerly prosperous auto, steel, and manufacturing towns have been hollowed out. Our economically dominant cities of yore-manufacturing and agrarian/rural towns, have given way to the economically dominant towns of today-university towns and urban areas including their suburbs. This phenomenon is not unique to the US, it's worldwide, driven by technological, communication, and transportation revolutions. Addressing it requires serious, long term effort and broad political coalitions. It's foolish to blame it all on trade policy. As just one example, we're the largest steel producing state, still. We produce more steel than ever, by a lot, but we employ a fraction of the people to do so. Our state manufactures more in general than ever, by a lot, but we employ a fraction of the people to do so. These longstanding trends will not end, especially as we enter the AI era, no matter how much Don demonizes brown foreigners and cuts the Medicaid of the workin stiffs that are impacted.

Only the red-pilled among us think Don is serious about helpin workin stiffs. His BBB, the signature economic policy achievement of the “new” right, is MAGA’s revealed preference. It screws workin folk, lines the pockets of Don’s fellow plutocrats, and puts Don on track to break his first term debt accumulation record. Don’s focus has been on anything but the folks you rightly identify. He’s fixated on personally pocketing billions in criminal crypto loot, selling out US interests via taco tariffs in return for golf resorts and 747’s, snatching mom’s out of school pickup lines, shaking down corporate America for various forms of financial tribute, taking stakes in private sector enterprises, invading foreign lands with no plan, ordering DOJ to investigate the Fed chair, designing golden ballrooms, putting his name on random structures, shredding the rule of law, the list is endless. Interesting that you’re concerned about trade deficits, yet support a prez who tariffed a nation with whom we have a trade surplus because he’s upset they’re prosecuting a fellow coup plotter-all in the name of helping those less fortunate. Fabulous. Check out the dozens of items on Don’s merch page if you want to know what he thinks of his flock...

So I’m angry too. I’m angry Don is a flimflam man, lies to people in need for personal gain, and that elites who know better excuse and enable him. Immigration is a great example. Securing the border was necessary, Joepa’s was outta control. But that’s different than the broader immigration issue. The dying towns in my state, and my state overall, depend on immigration to stem population decline, it’s the only net growth we have. Yet Don fans the racist flames among us, using disgusting terms like: they’re "infecting" us, "poisoning our blood", "vermin", "rapists", "animals", "eating the pets", "she's garbage”. Look em up, these are the same terms used by the worst dictators of history. He sends masked, untrained thugs to snatch and shoot our neighbors instead of criminals. What serious observer thinks these disgusting actions are aimed at those left behind, instead of helping an aging, incoherent despot cling to power?

Don’s "new" right, aka MAGA, is at best unserious. Assuming they’re at least marginally intellectually honest, they know Don’s revolving taco tariff regime is a joke. Don is a classic demagogue, they often rise to power in periods of rapid economic and social transformation. They offer simplistic, “immediate" solutions leavened with a whole lotta hate and blame. The shapeshifter JD, Little Marco, and so many others know this, after all, they once told the truth about Don. Elites like Oren hop on the train and have their own version of simplistic blame-it's all about mendacious, stupid "market fundamentalists" who intentionally screwed the poor and middle class, cuz they just didn't quite understand demand curves like he does. It's so much easier to raise money from angry folks, so ya gotta keep it stoked. It's all old school division, anger and blame. What we need is the opposite, we need to tell those in need the truth. And we need a serious, long term, durable effort that is supported by large majorities of our republic.

Perhaps the most egregious sin of the establishment elites in the “new” right is their capitulation on Don’s election lies and insurrection. Faith in the electoral process and the peaceful transfer of power is a prerequisite for a functioning democracy. Yet, Don lies to this day, and establishment elites like Oren and Senate R’s remain silent. I’ve not seen any research from Oren on the economic performance of regimes from history that have shredded their rule of law and tolerate massive public sector corruption, have you?

But maybe you’re right, and it’s the master at work. Cleverly unspooling his well-honed strategery. The 4D chess master at work, laser focused on the least among us…every day he awakes wondering how best to help the laid off auto worker from Hamtramck. Maybe. As for me, I can’t handle the exploitation of those in need, the massive corruption, the incessant lies, the incoherence, the incompetence, the stupidity, the cruelty, the blatant racism, and the faux masculinity from dudes who can’t get dates.

Good luck America.

John's avatar

Another outstanding article on Commonplace where I find so many clear, and "of course that is true" type of articles. I read articles like this and wonder how so many important things have been obfuscated for decades. Thank you so much for concise, clear thinking and the absence of silly and deliberately confusing jargon and mumbo jumbo!

Karl's avatar

It's so comforting to know that Don's taco tariff strategery is unspooling as planned. His laser like focus, his unparalled brilliance, and his doggedness in pursuit of a clear goal are on full display. His clever approach of intentionally driving our closest allies into China's arms, instead of rallying them to jointly confront China, only seems silly to those not familiar with 4D chess. His tariff threats over Greenland, immediately withdrawn, are just the latest example of Don's art of the deal, rivaled only by his tariffs on Brazil for prosecuting his fellow coup plotter, Bolsonaro. It's all coming together... At least, so the red pilled among us claim.

Of course, these are the same folks who rush to defend Don's masked, barely trained thugs as they shoot our fellow citizens in the back, ten times, after disarming them. Their silence is deafening as our government then openly lies to us about what has transpired, even though we can watch reality on video. Without evidence, our government immediately calls our fellow citizens "domestic terrorists", a "would-be assassin", seeking to do "maximum damage and massacre law enforcement". Welcome to East Germany.

Shame on our government. And shame on those who remain silent.

Daniel Archer's avatar

Governor Walz got that man killed. Mayor Frey got that man killed. And why did they rally the modern day KKK to go out and fight ICE, to protect their own corruption. To protect all the rich businessmen in Minnesota making money off the Neo-segregation Democrats have created through the lack of immigration enforcement. Rich men protecting their ability to exploit the illegal immigrant is all this is.

Trump gave them the ability to legalize the dreamers and step up immigration enforcement during his first term. The democrats took a hard pass. Of course it's worth mentioning that the old Neo-cons like Bush and Romney held up the funds needed for proper immigration enforcement for over a decade to try and get a guest worker program so they could legalize the corruption.

You want to discuss this openly blatant corruption some more, because the gambit of just pulling on people's heart strings over and over is how you kill a mans compassion and get him to order his own set of jackboots.

Karl's avatar

As if on cue, you’ve made my case. Thank you:)

Who ya gonna believe, me or your lying eyes…

Karl's avatar

I can’t type any slower. See above.

Daniel Archer's avatar

So your point was that you support this new segregation and exploitation. You root for more corruption that keeps wages down, and rents high?

Richard's avatar

China isn't manufacturing EVs, they are manufacturing carbon credits to sell to European car makers as they try to survive in the face of green lunacy. China is probably losing money on the cars but making it up on the carbon credits. Then they out-compete the Euros on price. Europe is funding its own deindustrialization. They are doomed unless they reverse course which they won't. The US needs to get out of the blast radius.

jeff fultz's avatar

Richard! spot on! Concur!

RHYS DAVIES's avatar

Excellent article. Trump (awful human being though he is) has shown top-quality political instinct in identifying what is ailing the US (you can't run a modern economy in immigration and outsourcing in perpetuity) and in doing something about it.

A few more years of these tariffs and the world will be transformed for the better. However, I do think policymakers need to start thinking about a system to replace that creates balanced trade, to replace the WTO, as knee-jerk tariffs aren't a long-term answer.

Daniel Archer's avatar

A good article and an accurate description of what's going to take place over the next few years. Unfortunately, too few people are really seeing why it all went so wrong. Yes market access is important, but equally if not more important was disconnecting trade from mutual defense and shared values (democracy, rule of law, protecting human rights and the environment).

You can't disconnect these things without creating a "tragedy of the commons". While I still support what Trump is doing, at the end of the day, Canada is an ally that is much less corrupt. Mexico is a chronic national security problem and racked by corruption.

We seem to be drifting into possibly doing more trade with Mexico rather then Canada. Hopefully this is a temporary state of affairs. If Canada gets its head out of its rear, it's worth remembering that they help us fight pirates and chase terrorist, while Mexico smuggles people and drugs into our country.

It's also worth remembering that the "tragedy" that happens when you ignore a commons problem is that we all wind up worse off. The biggest losers tend to be the ones that seemed to be "winning". The children of those 1970s and 80s single moms we helped create through our welfare programs didn't win in the end. Likewise, if free trade was so great for Mexico, why do Mexicans keep trying to come here and mow our lawns. The Chinese people are heading to become the biggest losers. They will be in a bankrupt country that has destroyed it's environment and watch as all that infrastructure built over the last dozen years falls down around them way too soon.

Richard Lee's avatar

Not so fast. Past actions do not determine future results.

China thinks in terms of decades, not fiscal quarter. They have been sowing global relations for decades. They have built-in infrastructure, supply chains and resources to address the “what if” the USA becomes an agressive adversary.

The analysis provided by Mr Kishi is fatalistic in structure and lacking an unbiased analysis of the new world order.

James Rutherford, M.D.'s avatar

Dictators often rely on income that doesn’t require taxes and China’s Belt and Road also provides infrastructure and cheaper goods in exchange for a mortgage of natural resources. Military and surveillance technology is also sometimes supplied. It is more than about economics and it has been very successful as China is the major trading partner of 130 countries. The United States has been at a disadvantage as we often require conditions such as human rights, environmental concerns, and democratic considerations or ignore these with no conditions or oversight that leads to massive fraud.

James Rutherford, M.D.'s avatar

Dictators often rely on income that doesn’t require taxes and China’s Belt and Road also provides infrastructure and cheaper goods in exchange for a mortgage of natural resources. Military and surveillance technology is also sometimes supplied. It is more than about economics and it has been very successful as China is the major trading partner of 130 countries. The United States has been at a disadvantage as we often require conditions such as human rights, environmental concerns, and democratic considerations or ignore these with no conditions or oversight that leads to massive fraud.

jeff fultz's avatar

Paul Krugman- ugh was wrong so many times it is getting hard to keep count with him.

Great article thank you. China started whacking the world economy long before the early 21st century.

I remember reading about Les Wexner the Epstein financier back in the 80's. He was the first in the 1970's to run to Asia to get his stuff made. Cheap labor no environmental rules and regulations he started to make a killing by the 80's. They called him brilliant and a great entrepreneur back then? I thought even back then WHAT? he's just going to Asia for cheap stuff? that's being innovative and a great entrepreneur? Whatever...

We been off shoring for the last 50 years to run the old neo con system to buy people off. Don't know if we did permanent never to recover damage, hope not. We will see hopefully if keep the liberal nihilists wokes out of the way.

The university = The "New Religion" (religion of nihilism)

Steve Shannon's avatar

One of the few pieces on Commonplace that present a case and make an argument without attacking other’s viewpoints, qualifications or character. Very good. My question is what can America physically manufacture anew that Americans can afford to buy with American labor priced in? I ask as a lot of consumer and business budgets are seemingly based on cheap goods and services from afar.

SubstaqueJacque's avatar

Thank you for updating this always-important argument with the comments from Davos - great post!

jeff fultz's avatar

Agree, the Davos guy nailed it didn't he! Perfect!