Europe has fallen on the dead weight of its own social welfare. Will America be next? The Democratic Party and millions of fans of Mamdani are certainly trying. It is insane for those on the right to oppose Trump in the name of preserving the democratic norm. That norm will turn America into Europe in our own life time (I am 65)
Yet as we speak, Don is on pace to break his existing all-time record for debt accumulation set in his first term... His campaign promises on the debt have proven to be lies.
Yes. Or virtually any R. Policy matters little to me in this period. I'd take far right, far left, or anything in between. The challenge is preserving our liberal (small L) democracy. I merely want a normal, lucid human who will uphold basic American values, uphold our institutions, and respect the constitution. Bad policy can be fixed. The destruction of our institutions is much more difficult.
Until Don, both parties could be counted on. This lifelong R checked out after Don’s insurrection, the worst act ever committed by a president. The related big lie literally continues to this day. Faith in elections and the peaceful transfer of power are everything in a democracy, his assault on them cannot be forgiven.
Liberal democracy is not at all normal by historical standards. It is a miracle. Opposing Trump alone does little to preserve liberal democracy in America
Ah I see. Presidents are powerless. Especially Don, even though he claims to be such a tough guy. That's particularly humorous when one considers how obsequious this Congress is. Besides, it's a Congress dominated by MAGA and the "new" right. Their major fiscal/economic legislation is the BBB for gods sake. They care not a whit about debt. As Don's inflationary policies continue to take hold, the crisis rapidly accelerates. Interest already exceeds defense spending.
Like most thinkers in the "new" right, Tony makes clear his disdain for our now former western allies. MAGA has made clear their antipathy toward democracies, be they in Europe, East Asia, or elsewhere. They're much more comfortable with fellow authoritarian regimes, hence our new alliance with Russia, the love affair with Orban, the endorsement of the fringe AdF party in Germany, etc. All of this is to the benefit of China, who MAGA ironically likes to finger as our most important adversary.
The "new" right has been successful in jettisoning our former allies and embarking on an America Alone strategery. They seek a return to a 19th century, multi-polar, might makes right world. Our sights have been lowered to dominance of the western hemisphere, with Russia and China left to dominate Europe and Asia. Stephen Miller has laid this case out explicitly.
The implications of this "new" approach have recently become clear. We stand alone in MAGA's disastrous Middle East war with only Israel as an ally (sadly an ally with different strategic goals than ours, assuming we even have a strategery). And our president's hat in hand pilgrimage to China exposed an America that had lost its former partners, greatly weakening the president's hand in his talks with Xi. China's scale dwarfs ours if we stand alone, with scale being a major determinant of major power conflict. With our former allies, we met or even exceeded China's scale. I'd rather have had our president face Xi with a phalanx of allies at our back.
Don has eliminated the former world order. Let's hope he knows how to build a new one. Judging from his daily incoherent bleats and slurred public statements, I'm not optimistic. He's far more focused on pocketing corrupt loot, pursuing political enemies, and plastering his name on things.
Don chose this course by intentionally severing ties. Not just with Europe, but Japan, South Korea, Canada, India, etc. It’s been quite a run for our aging leader-Greenland, random taco tariffs, a unilateral Middle East war, meddling in their elections, inane personal insults... Now, we’re viewed as an adversary. It’s not just going it alone in MAGA’s Middle East war. Nuclear proliferation, trade wars…it’s gonna be great.
No, it wasn't Trump that utterly failed to spend on defense what the NATO agreement required for more than 40 years. Then to rely almost solely on oil and gas from Russia while shuttering nuclear and coal-fired plants. Dependents aren't allies. They bring little of import to the table. America is energy independent, food independent, has borders with only two countries and they will never threaten us militarily, is nearly twice as wealthy per capita as Europe, and is taking an increasing lead in AI that will open up major new opportunities. Eight of the ten largest companies in the world are American, the other two are Chinese. None are European. We have private companies colonizing space. We are gaining allies like Japan and Argentina, and Venezuela is basically a vassal state. We can turn China's oil off in a pinch. We have major domestic issues to sort out but we are not threatened by much overseas.
Interesting. You're making my case. What was the world order that was in place as America became the juggernaut you describe? And if it made us so fabulously successful, why did we eliminate it? Why does he whine incessantly about how we're a hellhole, and we've been taken advantage of? How someone else won't bail him out of MAGA's Middle East war? After all, he told us we obliterated their nukes months ago, before he told us they were a couple weeks from a bomb, before he told us we'd already won the war, around the time he told us we didn't need the strait, before he whined he wasn't getting bailed out. It was all lies. He's incoherent, read every word of his daily bleats.
I'd agree with you that in the post war period we became the most prosperous nation, in the most prosperous period, in human history. It's also an anomalous period devoid of major power conflict. Perhaps that's due to the world order that we devised on our own behalf?
But all this is academic. Those days are long gone. MAGA won, Don obliterated that order and traded our former democratic allies for Russia, El Salvador, and a few minor African nations that agreed to take our brown deportees in return for petty cash.
MAGA has chosen to confront China alone, with no allies of consequence. This despite Chinas massive scale and their dominance of many industries of the future. He's the tough guy with all the cards, but he whines that Europe needs to save him to vanquish a weakling like Iran:). It's humiliating as he babbles his way around the world stage.
To Don, it's all a simplistic matter of who has contributed what to NATO. It's just a simple real estate deal. His ignorance of history renders him incapable of understanding the far more important metrics.
MAGA is the establishment now. The elites. Don has dominated the R party for over a decade, and they control the entire federal government. I tire of the backward looking grievance and blame while his family pockets an unprecedented stash of corrupt loot. Don is fixated on a couple simple things-personal enrichment via corruption, obsessing over retribution on powerless political enemies, and plastering his name on things. Look what he spends his time and political capital on.
It's time for the whining to stop. Y'all control the entire government. Again. The economy is Don's. Inflation is Don's. Record setting deficits are Don's. The war is Don's. Declining manufacturing employment is Don's.
Time to man up and end MAGA's Middle East war the same way Don started it, alone. Then again, maybe Bibi will light the path out, since he dog walked Don in...
Germany right now has a projected budget to build tanks and APCs to the tune of 29 billion and a yearly budget of 125B, that's USD. Lots of thick steel coffins. I'd think these days things are drones but what do I know.
Germany might get energy again if Russia has a turnover of government. I'd think the Russian economy will be horrible for a long time even after they get rid of Putin.
Thuringia was hilarious: "I know you didn't ask for their support, but the very fact that they voted for you taints you!" The Greens almost pulled their slaughterhouse motion mid-vote when it became clear the AfD would vote in favor of it. It's like TDS on steroids.
Secondly, it really doesn't matter if Germany of France or UK have PMs in single-digit popularity; their governments aren't going anywhere. France's election is 2027 but they've judicially neutered LePen; no one knows if Bardella can really win. Germany and UK aren't scheduled until 2029.
All this media talk of "pressure" on PMs is just theatre. CDU/SPD will find a way to govern even if it's purely on the basis of shared hatred of AfD (and half of Germany). France has a hung parliament but Macron will keep appointing PMs for as long as he has to. And England, Starmer may resign (I doubt it) but there's absolutely no chance of Labour calling an election early knowing they would face an electoral bloodbath. They view Farage the way the Dems view Trump.
If Bardella wins the Presidency (I seriously doubt it) in 2027, call me.
Bardella has a strong and growing following. He also potentially solve a very real problem for the National Rally. Is it a real party or just a Le Pen fan club. But to echo your last line, let's see what really happens. I have French in-laws, yet even then would hesitate to make any type of prediction as to how France is going to go.
Germany is and was running even bigger current account surpluses on the back of basically the euros relative weakness and the workers getting paid less that their productivity. It is really hard form me to think yet more cuts to the welfare state and workers bargaining power are any kind of solution.
The author is wrong for a very simple reason. For the last decade or so, just about all deficit spending by the government has been banned. Last year that was amended to exclude defense spending. So in fact, the only option for German politicians that want to stabilize, much less try to stimulate the German economy is to boost defense spending.
This doesn't mean the Germans will get good value for their money. In fact, giving the need to stabilize the steal and chemical industries, it's a safe bet that there will be a lot of wasteful spending. That said, the rules on defense related projects are intentionally vague. Laying new fiber-optic cables could be declared defense spending. Developing drones would create a lot of blue collar and white collar jobs.
Same goes for yesterdays attitudes towards joining the military. Talk to me after many of those young men realize that the private sector isn't hiring. Spending a big chunk of your twenties trying to string seasonal jobs in a decent income, all while still living in your parents home will shift a lot more attitudes then any slick marketing campaign. The military could become even more attractive to college grads that are faced with bleak prospects in the private market when compared to joining the military as an officer with government housing.
Add in that "free" trade with America isn't coming back. China isn't going back to running a trade deficit with Germany. The new Mercorsur trade deal is largely going to be a bust for Germany. I think you can safely predict that Germany is going to be doing a lot of defense spending regardless of what Trump or America does going forward.
The problem with this analysis is that it fails to contemplate the cost of building a drone industry vs à conventionally armored military. While I am no expert in this coat analysis I suspect that building drones and the related industry would be cheaper than the other option. Drones are the modern army.
Yes! - It's time for the USA to withdraw. We've already been there too long. Time to come home. Thank God, Trump has already announced some withdrawals.
Constantini's commentary makes good sense. The one concern I have is, "What are his loyalties?" Is he a Trumpist, a MAGA puppet, or an independent thinker? This is a pervasive problem these days, viz., how to sift through the mountain of undemocratic, kleptocratic, mindless crap that comes out of Trump's administration and it's fellow travellers to ferret out any worthwhile ideas. Can anyone illuminate whether Constantini is a MAGA puppet?
Any idea that comes from a "Trump adjacent" place is burdened by all the extremely bad policies, and conduct of anyone associated with the Trump administration.
You can see my comment above, but the short version is that it should matter if an author is or isn't aligned with Trump. In this case the author is wrong but that probably has nothing to do with his political leanings and more to do with a failure to understand Germany.
In Germany, you have to balance the budget. It's the law. Except they changed the law last year. For almost everything you have to balance the budget, but defense spending is now exempt from that rule. Seems like if you're going to write an article declaring all the ways the German economy is screwed, and how that means they won't increase defense spending, you might mention and make an argument as to why German politicians won't increase spending in the one and only area that they are allowed to try to stimulate, or at least stabilize manufacturing.
Europe has fallen on the dead weight of its own social welfare. Will America be next? The Democratic Party and millions of fans of Mamdani are certainly trying. It is insane for those on the right to oppose Trump in the name of preserving the democratic norm. That norm will turn America into Europe in our own life time (I am 65)
Yet as we speak, Don is on pace to break his existing all-time record for debt accumulation set in his first term... His campaign promises on the debt have proven to be lies.
Trump is certainly flawed. The key question is: do you see a better alternative? The Democrats?
Yes. Or virtually any R. Policy matters little to me in this period. I'd take far right, far left, or anything in between. The challenge is preserving our liberal (small L) democracy. I merely want a normal, lucid human who will uphold basic American values, uphold our institutions, and respect the constitution. Bad policy can be fixed. The destruction of our institutions is much more difficult.
Basiv american values and respect for the constitution are decidedly right-wing.
Best get comfortable
Until Don, both parties could be counted on. This lifelong R checked out after Don’s insurrection, the worst act ever committed by a president. The related big lie literally continues to this day. Faith in elections and the peaceful transfer of power are everything in a democracy, his assault on them cannot be forgiven.
Not a fan of Trump but pretending like he's the problem instead of a symptom is a severe misdiagnosis.
Liberal democracy is not at all normal by historical standards. It is a miracle. Opposing Trump alone does little to preserve liberal democracy in America
Correct. It’s merely a first step. It will take years to correct the damage.
It's not Trump - It's Congress that's not addressing the debt or rewriting immigration laws...
Ah I see. Presidents are powerless. Especially Don, even though he claims to be such a tough guy. That's particularly humorous when one considers how obsequious this Congress is. Besides, it's a Congress dominated by MAGA and the "new" right. Their major fiscal/economic legislation is the BBB for gods sake. They care not a whit about debt. As Don's inflationary policies continue to take hold, the crisis rapidly accelerates. Interest already exceeds defense spending.
Like most thinkers in the "new" right, Tony makes clear his disdain for our now former western allies. MAGA has made clear their antipathy toward democracies, be they in Europe, East Asia, or elsewhere. They're much more comfortable with fellow authoritarian regimes, hence our new alliance with Russia, the love affair with Orban, the endorsement of the fringe AdF party in Germany, etc. All of this is to the benefit of China, who MAGA ironically likes to finger as our most important adversary.
The "new" right has been successful in jettisoning our former allies and embarking on an America Alone strategery. They seek a return to a 19th century, multi-polar, might makes right world. Our sights have been lowered to dominance of the western hemisphere, with Russia and China left to dominate Europe and Asia. Stephen Miller has laid this case out explicitly.
The implications of this "new" approach have recently become clear. We stand alone in MAGA's disastrous Middle East war with only Israel as an ally (sadly an ally with different strategic goals than ours, assuming we even have a strategery). And our president's hat in hand pilgrimage to China exposed an America that had lost its former partners, greatly weakening the president's hand in his talks with Xi. China's scale dwarfs ours if we stand alone, with scale being a major determinant of major power conflict. With our former allies, we met or even exceeded China's scale. I'd rather have had our president face Xi with a phalanx of allies at our back.
Don has eliminated the former world order. Let's hope he knows how to build a new one. Judging from his daily incoherent bleats and slurred public statements, I'm not optimistic. He's far more focused on pocketing corrupt loot, pursuing political enemies, and plastering his name on things.
Good luck America.
More like, 'Good Luck Europe!' Adios Amigos
And good luck to MAGA in their Middle East war. Maybe El Salvador, Russia, or Eritrea can help?
For sure, Europe is no help....
“There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them.” Winston Churchill
Don chose this course by intentionally severing ties. Not just with Europe, but Japan, South Korea, Canada, India, etc. It’s been quite a run for our aging leader-Greenland, random taco tariffs, a unilateral Middle East war, meddling in their elections, inane personal insults... Now, we’re viewed as an adversary. It’s not just going it alone in MAGA’s Middle East war. Nuclear proliferation, trade wars…it’s gonna be great.
No, it wasn't Trump that utterly failed to spend on defense what the NATO agreement required for more than 40 years. Then to rely almost solely on oil and gas from Russia while shuttering nuclear and coal-fired plants. Dependents aren't allies. They bring little of import to the table. America is energy independent, food independent, has borders with only two countries and they will never threaten us militarily, is nearly twice as wealthy per capita as Europe, and is taking an increasing lead in AI that will open up major new opportunities. Eight of the ten largest companies in the world are American, the other two are Chinese. None are European. We have private companies colonizing space. We are gaining allies like Japan and Argentina, and Venezuela is basically a vassal state. We can turn China's oil off in a pinch. We have major domestic issues to sort out but we are not threatened by much overseas.
Interesting. You're making my case. What was the world order that was in place as America became the juggernaut you describe? And if it made us so fabulously successful, why did we eliminate it? Why does he whine incessantly about how we're a hellhole, and we've been taken advantage of? How someone else won't bail him out of MAGA's Middle East war? After all, he told us we obliterated their nukes months ago, before he told us they were a couple weeks from a bomb, before he told us we'd already won the war, around the time he told us we didn't need the strait, before he whined he wasn't getting bailed out. It was all lies. He's incoherent, read every word of his daily bleats.
I'd agree with you that in the post war period we became the most prosperous nation, in the most prosperous period, in human history. It's also an anomalous period devoid of major power conflict. Perhaps that's due to the world order that we devised on our own behalf?
But all this is academic. Those days are long gone. MAGA won, Don obliterated that order and traded our former democratic allies for Russia, El Salvador, and a few minor African nations that agreed to take our brown deportees in return for petty cash.
MAGA has chosen to confront China alone, with no allies of consequence. This despite Chinas massive scale and their dominance of many industries of the future. He's the tough guy with all the cards, but he whines that Europe needs to save him to vanquish a weakling like Iran:). It's humiliating as he babbles his way around the world stage.
To Don, it's all a simplistic matter of who has contributed what to NATO. It's just a simple real estate deal. His ignorance of history renders him incapable of understanding the far more important metrics.
MAGA is the establishment now. The elites. Don has dominated the R party for over a decade, and they control the entire federal government. I tire of the backward looking grievance and blame while his family pockets an unprecedented stash of corrupt loot. Don is fixated on a couple simple things-personal enrichment via corruption, obsessing over retribution on powerless political enemies, and plastering his name on things. Look what he spends his time and political capital on.
It's time for the whining to stop. Y'all control the entire government. Again. The economy is Don's. Inflation is Don's. Record setting deficits are Don's. The war is Don's. Declining manufacturing employment is Don's.
Time to man up and end MAGA's Middle East war the same way Don started it, alone. Then again, maybe Bibi will light the path out, since he dog walked Don in...
Germany right now has a projected budget to build tanks and APCs to the tune of 29 billion and a yearly budget of 125B, that's USD. Lots of thick steel coffins. I'd think these days things are drones but what do I know.
Germany might get energy again if Russia has a turnover of government. I'd think the Russian economy will be horrible for a long time even after they get rid of Putin.
Thuringia was hilarious: "I know you didn't ask for their support, but the very fact that they voted for you taints you!" The Greens almost pulled their slaughterhouse motion mid-vote when it became clear the AfD would vote in favor of it. It's like TDS on steroids.
Secondly, it really doesn't matter if Germany of France or UK have PMs in single-digit popularity; their governments aren't going anywhere. France's election is 2027 but they've judicially neutered LePen; no one knows if Bardella can really win. Germany and UK aren't scheduled until 2029.
All this media talk of "pressure" on PMs is just theatre. CDU/SPD will find a way to govern even if it's purely on the basis of shared hatred of AfD (and half of Germany). France has a hung parliament but Macron will keep appointing PMs for as long as he has to. And England, Starmer may resign (I doubt it) but there's absolutely no chance of Labour calling an election early knowing they would face an electoral bloodbath. They view Farage the way the Dems view Trump.
If Bardella wins the Presidency (I seriously doubt it) in 2027, call me.
Bardella has a strong and growing following. He also potentially solve a very real problem for the National Rally. Is it a real party or just a Le Pen fan club. But to echo your last line, let's see what really happens. I have French in-laws, yet even then would hesitate to make any type of prediction as to how France is going to go.
I would be thrilled if it happened! He'll make the runoff I'm sure. But the French have a track record of getting spooked at the last minute.
Of course, if it looks like he might actually win, we may well see the EU ruling class pull a Romania.
Maybe one day Poland will march into Germany.
Germany is and was running even bigger current account surpluses on the back of basically the euros relative weakness and the workers getting paid less that their productivity. It is really hard form me to think yet more cuts to the welfare state and workers bargaining power are any kind of solution.
The author is wrong for a very simple reason. For the last decade or so, just about all deficit spending by the government has been banned. Last year that was amended to exclude defense spending. So in fact, the only option for German politicians that want to stabilize, much less try to stimulate the German economy is to boost defense spending.
This doesn't mean the Germans will get good value for their money. In fact, giving the need to stabilize the steal and chemical industries, it's a safe bet that there will be a lot of wasteful spending. That said, the rules on defense related projects are intentionally vague. Laying new fiber-optic cables could be declared defense spending. Developing drones would create a lot of blue collar and white collar jobs.
Same goes for yesterdays attitudes towards joining the military. Talk to me after many of those young men realize that the private sector isn't hiring. Spending a big chunk of your twenties trying to string seasonal jobs in a decent income, all while still living in your parents home will shift a lot more attitudes then any slick marketing campaign. The military could become even more attractive to college grads that are faced with bleak prospects in the private market when compared to joining the military as an officer with government housing.
Add in that "free" trade with America isn't coming back. China isn't going back to running a trade deficit with Germany. The new Mercorsur trade deal is largely going to be a bust for Germany. I think you can safely predict that Germany is going to be doing a lot of defense spending regardless of what Trump or America does going forward.
The problem with this analysis is that it fails to contemplate the cost of building a drone industry vs à conventionally armored military. While I am no expert in this coat analysis I suspect that building drones and the related industry would be cheaper than the other option. Drones are the modern army.
Germany rearming is not what is needed. All they need to do is produce the best drones on the planet 😎
The USA will be out of NATO by the end of Trump's term
Yes! - It's time for the USA to withdraw. We've already been there too long. Time to come home. Thank God, Trump has already announced some withdrawals.
I am not upset that Germany cannot rearm. They are nothing but trouble. I am also not upset that they are self-implementing the Morganthau plan.
Constantini's commentary makes good sense. The one concern I have is, "What are his loyalties?" Is he a Trumpist, a MAGA puppet, or an independent thinker? This is a pervasive problem these days, viz., how to sift through the mountain of undemocratic, kleptocratic, mindless crap that comes out of Trump's administration and it's fellow travellers to ferret out any worthwhile ideas. Can anyone illuminate whether Constantini is a MAGA puppet?
So good ideas don't count if they come from a Trump adjacent place?
Any idea that comes from a "Trump adjacent" place is burdened by all the extremely bad policies, and conduct of anyone associated with the Trump administration.
That sounds just like the German ruling class: "we don't care if it's a good idea or a bad idea; it's an AfD idea so we must oppose it."
Reflexive opposition is a dumb way to make policy. Good ideas can come from any side.
TDS then
Trump Denial Syndrome:) Believe everything he utters, always, it's delicious.
TDS??
You can see my comment above, but the short version is that it should matter if an author is or isn't aligned with Trump. In this case the author is wrong but that probably has nothing to do with his political leanings and more to do with a failure to understand Germany.
Edify me. Why is Constantini wrong?
In Germany, you have to balance the budget. It's the law. Except they changed the law last year. For almost everything you have to balance the budget, but defense spending is now exempt from that rule. Seems like if you're going to write an article declaring all the ways the German economy is screwed, and how that means they won't increase defense spending, you might mention and make an argument as to why German politicians won't increase spending in the one and only area that they are allowed to try to stimulate, or at least stabilize manufacturing.
Thx