Imagine being Oren. Having to saddle up with an aging, angry, slurring, incoherent, imbecile to pursue your life's dream. And knowing in your gut that your soul mate cares not a whit about tariffs as an economic tool, but rather as a tool for their personal enrichment. Ouch.
My guess is that MAGA's Middle East war matters far more than Don's taco tariffs to the health of the US economy. Note that the best case "for" tariffs that Oren can muster is a proud recitation of the harm they didn't cause.
It is a little too early for Oren to declare victory or even much progress. The negotiated foreign investments have not appeared. When (and if) they do, these dollars will likely support highly automated manufacturing. This is not a bad thing, but the USA's key problem is a labor problem. There will be far less jobs than in past industrial plants and they will be highly skilled positions required a very large investment in training. Capital will continue to increase its importance relative to labor. There will be fewer jobs (paying higher salaries) and a continued rise in income inequality and unemployment.
Is our society willing to make the training and educational investments that are needed? Are we willing to address the current level of income inequality by changing our tax structure and investing in the needs of families? That is not clear.
All true but it will take more than just tax structure changes to bring about a broad robust and secure middle class. As capital concentration accelerates, the essential notions of ownership will eventually have to be addressed and adjusted. Education for sure, which includes the trades, present and future. But also civic education, history, and anti-manipulation education (critical thinking) to deal with upcoming big tech AI abuses.
This is happening all over the country - many "prep" schools and community colleges are grabbing the motivated kids in early high school and getting them ready to succeed in higher skilled trades. Yes, there will be fewer jobs in those specific manufacturing concerns, but solid industry in any community or region is an economic engine - more schools, hospitals, retail, downtown revitalization - that will increase hiring across the board.
I nominate the American economic profession's near universal support for free trade in our lopsided world as the biggest intellectual scandal in academic history. It is a corrupt field, marred by ignorance and institutional cowardice.
As Karl noted below, Oren has had to wave off the stench of corruption while cheering the extent to which Trump's erratic and incoherent policy aligns with his prescriptions. I've noted this several times already; Trump is not the vehicle for the transformation Oren seeks. Trump defiles everything he comes in contact with, that isn't already an abomination.
The embarrassment of hyperbolic naming, "Liberation Day" in this case, won't go unremarked. Celebrating it? Oh, please. It strains civility not to deride the hubris.
It is only the wealthy elite who promoted the globalization mantra. It certainly wasn't a "lib" thing, per se. It was a Libertarian thing. Libertarians usurped Conservatives in the Republican party and Trump is the Libertarian apotheosis; the power of wealth usurping democracy and ruling with naked greed and self interest. Nominal conservatives in the Republican party jumped on the bandwagon. Though there certainly was a cadre of "limousine" lib politicians and political donors who enjoyed the ride. But they couldn't be called actual liberals in anything regarding economics and, because of that, shouldn't have been dubbed liberal to begin with. I assert that the origin of Progressive is rooted in farmers and workers uniting and resisting the financial elite of their time, Robber Barons and bankers, who used their wealth and monopoly power to abuse the hoi polloi. I think it is a useful distinction to separate economic policy and social policy. Progressive properly should refer to worker oriented economic policy. Liberal, to whatever social policy conservatives and libertarians agree to reject? That seems to be morphing as formerly "hippy dippy" notions are adopted by republicans.
If Oren wants to bash economists, I guess, have at it. It is an extremely low bar straw man to set up. Progressive economists have rejected Chicago school economics forever. Economics has always had the fundamental problem of being a social science that ignored the social part. The appeal of the "free market" ideation was it asserted a mechanism that dispensed with social issues. It was a mechanism by some hand waving rationale that ideally solved all social issue imbalances. Thus, math and theory and metrics based on those assumptions was straightforward and compelling: once you got past the hand-waving and drank "free market" KoolAid. Of course, the fact that those assumptions are wrong or not useful at best, has been known for 150 years.
Again, I appeal to Oren's sense of rationality, of observing the real, to get off the Trump bandwagon, and advocate for a "clean" implementation of pro-worker and pro-reindustrialization policy. As I noted above, Trump defiles everything he touches. If Oren's work is too closely associated with Trump or the Heritage Foundation, it will be defiled and lose all credibility in the future. Family values and the worker oriented vision Oren promotes are fundamental Progressive values. Embrace that, don't antagonize it. That is how the movement can get beyond the stupid polarization we have now. Empower workers and families to dis-empower corporations and clean up politics. Oren has a far better chance of taking over the democratic party than the republican party. Doing so while maintaining moderate social values would be a huge win. What is the aim here really? Employment as a talking head? or making smart changes in politics and culture for the benefit of American citizens?
Weapons are not meant to be hoarded (other than nukes). Like tariffs, they are instruments of policy. Demand will create supply after a lag. In the meantime better that they be used in support of our policy rather than in support of European adventures on the Eastern front.
Imagine being Oren. Having to saddle up with an aging, angry, slurring, incoherent, imbecile to pursue your life's dream. And knowing in your gut that your soul mate cares not a whit about tariffs as an economic tool, but rather as a tool for their personal enrichment. Ouch.
My guess is that MAGA's Middle East war matters far more than Don's taco tariffs to the health of the US economy. Note that the best case "for" tariffs that Oren can muster is a proud recitation of the harm they didn't cause.
Good luck America.
It is a little too early for Oren to declare victory or even much progress. The negotiated foreign investments have not appeared. When (and if) they do, these dollars will likely support highly automated manufacturing. This is not a bad thing, but the USA's key problem is a labor problem. There will be far less jobs than in past industrial plants and they will be highly skilled positions required a very large investment in training. Capital will continue to increase its importance relative to labor. There will be fewer jobs (paying higher salaries) and a continued rise in income inequality and unemployment.
Is our society willing to make the training and educational investments that are needed? Are we willing to address the current level of income inequality by changing our tax structure and investing in the needs of families? That is not clear.
All true but it will take more than just tax structure changes to bring about a broad robust and secure middle class. As capital concentration accelerates, the essential notions of ownership will eventually have to be addressed and adjusted. Education for sure, which includes the trades, present and future. But also civic education, history, and anti-manipulation education (critical thinking) to deal with upcoming big tech AI abuses.
This is happening all over the country - many "prep" schools and community colleges are grabbing the motivated kids in early high school and getting them ready to succeed in higher skilled trades. Yes, there will be fewer jobs in those specific manufacturing concerns, but solid industry in any community or region is an economic engine - more schools, hospitals, retail, downtown revitalization - that will increase hiring across the board.
Quote: "What the economists actually had were abstract models, built upon poor assumptions, designed to give their preferred results."
In actual fact, they didn't even have that: https://fpeckert.me/teaching/readings/StolperRESTUD41.pdf
The final paragraph tells you all you need to know.
I pointed this out a long time ago: https://www.jstor.org/stable/40721553
I nominate the American economic profession's near universal support for free trade in our lopsided world as the biggest intellectual scandal in academic history. It is a corrupt field, marred by ignorance and institutional cowardice.
As Karl noted below, Oren has had to wave off the stench of corruption while cheering the extent to which Trump's erratic and incoherent policy aligns with his prescriptions. I've noted this several times already; Trump is not the vehicle for the transformation Oren seeks. Trump defiles everything he comes in contact with, that isn't already an abomination.
The embarrassment of hyperbolic naming, "Liberation Day" in this case, won't go unremarked. Celebrating it? Oh, please. It strains civility not to deride the hubris.
It is only the wealthy elite who promoted the globalization mantra. It certainly wasn't a "lib" thing, per se. It was a Libertarian thing. Libertarians usurped Conservatives in the Republican party and Trump is the Libertarian apotheosis; the power of wealth usurping democracy and ruling with naked greed and self interest. Nominal conservatives in the Republican party jumped on the bandwagon. Though there certainly was a cadre of "limousine" lib politicians and political donors who enjoyed the ride. But they couldn't be called actual liberals in anything regarding economics and, because of that, shouldn't have been dubbed liberal to begin with. I assert that the origin of Progressive is rooted in farmers and workers uniting and resisting the financial elite of their time, Robber Barons and bankers, who used their wealth and monopoly power to abuse the hoi polloi. I think it is a useful distinction to separate economic policy and social policy. Progressive properly should refer to worker oriented economic policy. Liberal, to whatever social policy conservatives and libertarians agree to reject? That seems to be morphing as formerly "hippy dippy" notions are adopted by republicans.
If Oren wants to bash economists, I guess, have at it. It is an extremely low bar straw man to set up. Progressive economists have rejected Chicago school economics forever. Economics has always had the fundamental problem of being a social science that ignored the social part. The appeal of the "free market" ideation was it asserted a mechanism that dispensed with social issues. It was a mechanism by some hand waving rationale that ideally solved all social issue imbalances. Thus, math and theory and metrics based on those assumptions was straightforward and compelling: once you got past the hand-waving and drank "free market" KoolAid. Of course, the fact that those assumptions are wrong or not useful at best, has been known for 150 years.
Again, I appeal to Oren's sense of rationality, of observing the real, to get off the Trump bandwagon, and advocate for a "clean" implementation of pro-worker and pro-reindustrialization policy. As I noted above, Trump defiles everything he touches. If Oren's work is too closely associated with Trump or the Heritage Foundation, it will be defiled and lose all credibility in the future. Family values and the worker oriented vision Oren promotes are fundamental Progressive values. Embrace that, don't antagonize it. That is how the movement can get beyond the stupid polarization we have now. Empower workers and families to dis-empower corporations and clean up politics. Oren has a far better chance of taking over the democratic party than the republican party. Doing so while maintaining moderate social values would be a huge win. What is the aim here really? Employment as a talking head? or making smart changes in politics and culture for the benefit of American citizens?
Well done. I agree with every word until the Iran take. I read Rubio's extemporaneous comments as Iran threatening dirty bombs on drones.
So... where you get your data? because I'm seeing different trends.
"Far from a recession, growth accelerated."
Q4 GDP, the latest figures, is up just 0.9% annually, a huge crash, though that's mostly due to extended government shutdown
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-second-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025
"Inflation turned lower."
Monthly CPI chart seems to striaghtforwardly contradict this
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL (set units to compounded annual rate of change)
"The unemployment rate held in a narrow range"
It seems to have gone up from 4.2% to 4.4%
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
"and losses in manufacturing employment slowed."
Still in negative territory, doesn't even seem to have "slowed"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP (set units to compounded annual rate of change)
"New orders for capital goods rose."
This one seems true!
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWORDER
"After long periods of decline, manufacturing productivity and output turned around."
Productivity is down
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MPU4910063
But output is up at least
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN
Bob Klusky,
Very well said.
We should talk/communicate one day soon.
Best-Jess
Weapons are not meant to be hoarded (other than nukes). Like tariffs, they are instruments of policy. Demand will create supply after a lag. In the meantime better that they be used in support of our policy rather than in support of European adventures on the Eastern front.