We do need to decouple from China. Autarchy may not produce maximum efficiency but it is a lot safer than outsourcing critical production to an adversial power. I don't believe in friendsourcing either. America has no friends, just feckless allies starting wars they can't win and attempting to drag us in. So we need to decouple from Europe too. They don't share our values and are anti-American to the core. Trade is OK as long as it doesn't involve anything important to our national interest.
Oren, Oren, Oren. . you have reached a level of hackery that will ensure you have a comfortable mat to kneel on while you sniff the MAGA throne for the rest of your professional career (such as it may be). Before we dig into the incoherence of your attacks on Jensen Huang, lets first talk about another billionaire who is getting played by the Chinese right now. His name is Donald Trump and he's president of the United States.
Xi Jiping knew all along he had some rather potent ordinance he could fire at the U.S in response to Trump's tariffs. He knew this in 2016 too when Trump - ever the fool who has no compunction about making the same mistake over and over again - bailed out the U.S soybean farmers who depend on China's markets for their product. And so here we are again, with the U.S citizen paying more for goods every time they go to Walmart in order to funnel that tariff revenue back to farmers. That itself is very very dumb economic policy - you know, the kind of thing you'd never want to train an AI model on because its the "AI slop" of economics.
But somehow this time around is even dumber than 2016. Way, way dumber. Remember that dark haired, short, swarthy chainsaw wielding man from the global south who got up on stage at CPAC with Elon Musk? His name is Javier Milei, and he's the president of Argentina. Well, as it turns out, his "economic miracle" is anything but, and more American taxpayer money is going to bail him and his party out. The reason? Trump likes him, even though the chainsaw he handed to Musk symbolizing all the cutting that DOGE was going to do didn't amount to much. DOGE has now proven to be such a stinging embarrassment and punchline that people like you don't even want to acknowledge it ever existed. I don't blame you - the footage of mental midgets like House Speaker Mike Johnson crowing about how Elon had "cracked the code" with his algorithms - you know, the ones (if they actually existed) would run on NVIDIA hardware - is about as grotesque and debased as the 50th birthday card Trump sent to his buddy Jeffery Epstein.
But wait. . there's more! Argentina sells soybeans to China. And with U.S taxpayer dollars, they are going to make it easier for their farmers to sell to China. So. Much. Winning.
I wish we could end here. . I really do. But we haven't yet addressed why your attacks on NVIDIA are so incoherent. See, in several pieces you've written recently, you minimize the effects of the cratering labor market (the most recent ADP numbers were bad... again) by pointing to the strong capital spending numbers. But where are those coming from? Hmm. . do you think it might have something to do with all the datacenter build-outs to support the future demand for AI? You know, those data centers that are going to be running huge fleets of servers outfitted with NVIDIA chips. Maybe that has something to do with NVIDIA's 4.5T market cap? Now you could argue that AI is a bubble (an argument I'd agree with) but then you can't point to strong CAPEX as evidence Trump's polices are working if that CAPEX is serving almost like a private form of stimulus due to a temporary valuation bubble that will painfully burst.
But sure. . its Jensen Huang who's being naive and lazy. Just keep telling yourself that.
I get you don't like Trump but what, exactly, is your answer to China useing, coercion, mercantilism and raw force to dominate the key industries upon which military power is built? Do we just depend upon the good graces of the CCP to protect us all? Hope you are teaching your kids Mandarin!
I don't like Trump, but I like incompetence even less, so MAGA is a particularly noxious cocktail. I support policies like the CHIPS act - you know, the one that Trump and his republican sycophants in congress are doing their best to dismantle. I also support export controls on key technologies - like GPU's - where they make sense. That's why I've never advocated for NVIDIA to pay the U.S a 15% royalty on every dollar of chips they sell to China, as Trump has done.
If a president wants to employ some light-weight, even handed industrial policy to incentivize the re-shoring of key industries, I'm all for it. What Trump is doing is corporate cronyism - bailing out his constituencies (soybean farmers) that were harmed by his own actions, and then funneling money to non-strategic partners like Argentina simply because Milei said nice things about him. People like Oren keep trying to frame this as some master plan, but they're just putting lipstick on a pig at this point.
I agree with your points, but why the ad hominem to Oren, Oren, Oren when there's nothing in this post that even refers to Trump? Our politics-based hatreds get in the way of our solving economic problems, and one can be in favor of many pro-US economic policies without giving a damn about Trump either way (that would be me, since Trump is too inconsistent to associate with any one economic or political agenda).
Cass is a strong advocate for specific parts of Trump's economic policies and he regularly praises him. So just because he doesn't mention Trump in this piece, make no mistake about it: Commonplace (formerly American Compass) is a mouthpiece for the type of economic populism espoused by MAGA. People like Cass attempt to add an intellectual veneer on top of Trump's utter incoherence while they avert their eyes from the rampant corruption and cruelty of his other actions. Cass knows - for example - that if he were to write about how Trump's crypto grifts undermine the very premise of economic populism that he'd become persona non grata in the world of MAGA. So instead he pretends that these unsavory things aren't happening and MAGA's economic populism is really about solving problems and strengthening the U.S economy overall.
But it doesn't work that way: the grift and the corruption are part of the package. You're either okay with it or you're not. Cass's silence on this is tacit approval he's okay with it, which says quite a bit (most of it unfavorable) about the type of person he is.
Thanks for this thoughtful reply - the issues that have brought us to these economic crossroads have been worsening for decades, as I’m sure you know. So it’s shortsighted to think that what’s happening in markets and to workers right now is mainly about “Biden” or “Trump.” Overfocus on political contests of the recent past uses up valuable national energy to solve economic problems per se, and I’ve read many posts and comments, many interviews and podcasts by Cass that are critical of Trump or (most often and best of all) disregard Trump entirely.
The main problem with Democrats is that they see something super obvious - Biden's cognitive decline or Kamala's stupidity - and deny it in a way everyone can see. They can articulate any policy they want, but that's just a red line showing they are clear liars.
The point is Oren is doing the same thing with Trump. Everyone can see what's going on. You can't lie your way to honest policy.
Thanks for reply - am a huge fan! Still wondering about the evidence here. This past Friday re: China making a possible deal with Trump, Cass's comment was "this would be a very, very bad idea," and I've heard many dissenting opinions such as this.
Jensen Huang knows exactly nothing about geopolitics or national/economic security policy.
He is a completely unserious actor in this world of ideas and, best-case scenario, should be totally ignored since his only goal is to maximize profits for his company.
This is the lens through which his laughably ignorant statements should be viewed. He has no regard for any other consideration.
If the founder of the "new" right-Don, was concerned about China, wouldn't he have rallied the western democracies to confront them jointly instead of driving our friends away? Wouldn't he have implemented the Tik Tok legislation as passed instead of flip flopping after meeting with his billionaire mega donor Jeff Yass?
Perhaps Oren needs to acknowledge the reason the billionaire tech bros were given the prime seating at Don's inaugural? The same reason the bros frequent the White House bearing gifts for the dear leader...
Meanwhile, maybe he should rethink his campaign to be the next Kevin Hassett. I understand he wants to be one of the big boys like Jason and Larry, but does he really want to regularly humiliate himself on national tv like Kev? Isn't it safer to continue trying to retrofit an intellectual framework around Don's incoherent actions from the comfort of the AC offices? As long as he hews to the company line, Don will let him keep the tax status:)
Speaking of incoherent, make sure to watch Don's lecture to the military this week, it's terrifying. Watch all of it. He's making Joepa look lucid.
Hmm, in my travels I’ve observed a different reality I guess. Would you consider the US an “authoritarian mess”, since Don’s actions are straight from the historical authoritarian playbook?
Recent history shows the Chinese Communist Party is treacherous, duplicitous, and cunning. They play on the hopes of prospective partners/investors with the lure of a market of, supposedly, 1.4 billion consumers, as well as their technological prowess. 1.4 billion people is one of those factoids that everybody just knows, but which can't really stand up to close scrutiny. China's reputation as a master of technology is based on their adoption of purloined intellectual property.
China suitors are like the wife of a two-timing husband who sees the clear signs of his failure to keep his vows, but ignores or rationalizes them, refusing to see them in the cold light of day.
There are numerous examples. One of the biggest is the "one country, two systems" promise China made to persuade the UK to surrender control of Hong Kong. That fell by the wayside years ago.
And no one raised any objections. It just happened. And life goes on as if nothing changed.
I think Noah Smith said the wirld will be ruled by those who control the electric stack. He defines this stack as batteries, electric motors, and power electronics. These are the core components of not just EVs but importantly military drones. I believe he is correct and China is trying to achieve dominance in all three. We ignore this at our own peril.
I worked for General Electric and several other Fortune 500 companies in the 1990s and 2000s. The big shot CEOs of that era sounded exactly like Jensen Huang. Why should we globalize our markets and workforce as fast as we could? The world was flat (ala Thomas Friedman), let's go! That simplistic world view got us into the current trap. God help us should we repeat the same mistake again
No Big deal! Just because these "tech bros" are gambling with the continued existence of the liberal, democratic order of the whole world who cares, right? Of course we want the guys who brought us lockdowns and censorship over the preceding 5 years to have open reign to build up China in the most important technologies of the future that will decide wars won and political systems around the world. What could possibly go wrong? Isn't blind self interest the BEST basis for foreign policy?
The explanation for his behavior is that there’s a lot of money to be made in China in the short term. He is saying what he needs to say to justify his actions to his shareholders in the United States government. Does he believe it? Maybe, but I suspect you’re not nearly cynical enough about his motivations.
We do need to decouple from China. Autarchy may not produce maximum efficiency but it is a lot safer than outsourcing critical production to an adversial power. I don't believe in friendsourcing either. America has no friends, just feckless allies starting wars they can't win and attempting to drag us in. So we need to decouple from Europe too. They don't share our values and are anti-American to the core. Trade is OK as long as it doesn't involve anything important to our national interest.
1. US needs a better domestic industrial policy
which also includes
2. Higher levels of skilled immigration
US also needs:
3. Better STEM education
4. Better workforce development, apprenticeship, re training programs
That said - we do need higher levels of highly skilled immigration- to create the jobs of tomorrow
We need good jobs for actual Americans.
You are correct.
Studies show skilled immigrants create jobs for Americans.
They create companies and create opportunities.
I agree - stop the job theft and stop the fraud.
But we need to innovate to create the jobs of the future. To employ Americans.
We can’t think zero sum.
Oren, Oren, Oren. . you have reached a level of hackery that will ensure you have a comfortable mat to kneel on while you sniff the MAGA throne for the rest of your professional career (such as it may be). Before we dig into the incoherence of your attacks on Jensen Huang, lets first talk about another billionaire who is getting played by the Chinese right now. His name is Donald Trump and he's president of the United States.
Xi Jiping knew all along he had some rather potent ordinance he could fire at the U.S in response to Trump's tariffs. He knew this in 2016 too when Trump - ever the fool who has no compunction about making the same mistake over and over again - bailed out the U.S soybean farmers who depend on China's markets for their product. And so here we are again, with the U.S citizen paying more for goods every time they go to Walmart in order to funnel that tariff revenue back to farmers. That itself is very very dumb economic policy - you know, the kind of thing you'd never want to train an AI model on because its the "AI slop" of economics.
But somehow this time around is even dumber than 2016. Way, way dumber. Remember that dark haired, short, swarthy chainsaw wielding man from the global south who got up on stage at CPAC with Elon Musk? His name is Javier Milei, and he's the president of Argentina. Well, as it turns out, his "economic miracle" is anything but, and more American taxpayer money is going to bail him and his party out. The reason? Trump likes him, even though the chainsaw he handed to Musk symbolizing all the cutting that DOGE was going to do didn't amount to much. DOGE has now proven to be such a stinging embarrassment and punchline that people like you don't even want to acknowledge it ever existed. I don't blame you - the footage of mental midgets like House Speaker Mike Johnson crowing about how Elon had "cracked the code" with his algorithms - you know, the ones (if they actually existed) would run on NVIDIA hardware - is about as grotesque and debased as the 50th birthday card Trump sent to his buddy Jeffery Epstein.
But wait. . there's more! Argentina sells soybeans to China. And with U.S taxpayer dollars, they are going to make it easier for their farmers to sell to China. So. Much. Winning.
I wish we could end here. . I really do. But we haven't yet addressed why your attacks on NVIDIA are so incoherent. See, in several pieces you've written recently, you minimize the effects of the cratering labor market (the most recent ADP numbers were bad... again) by pointing to the strong capital spending numbers. But where are those coming from? Hmm. . do you think it might have something to do with all the datacenter build-outs to support the future demand for AI? You know, those data centers that are going to be running huge fleets of servers outfitted with NVIDIA chips. Maybe that has something to do with NVIDIA's 4.5T market cap? Now you could argue that AI is a bubble (an argument I'd agree with) but then you can't point to strong CAPEX as evidence Trump's polices are working if that CAPEX is serving almost like a private form of stimulus due to a temporary valuation bubble that will painfully burst.
But sure. . its Jensen Huang who's being naive and lazy. Just keep telling yourself that.
I get you don't like Trump but what, exactly, is your answer to China useing, coercion, mercantilism and raw force to dominate the key industries upon which military power is built? Do we just depend upon the good graces of the CCP to protect us all? Hope you are teaching your kids Mandarin!
I don't like Trump, but I like incompetence even less, so MAGA is a particularly noxious cocktail. I support policies like the CHIPS act - you know, the one that Trump and his republican sycophants in congress are doing their best to dismantle. I also support export controls on key technologies - like GPU's - where they make sense. That's why I've never advocated for NVIDIA to pay the U.S a 15% royalty on every dollar of chips they sell to China, as Trump has done.
If a president wants to employ some light-weight, even handed industrial policy to incentivize the re-shoring of key industries, I'm all for it. What Trump is doing is corporate cronyism - bailing out his constituencies (soybean farmers) that were harmed by his own actions, and then funneling money to non-strategic partners like Argentina simply because Milei said nice things about him. People like Oren keep trying to frame this as some master plan, but they're just putting lipstick on a pig at this point.
I agree with your points, but why the ad hominem to Oren, Oren, Oren when there's nothing in this post that even refers to Trump? Our politics-based hatreds get in the way of our solving economic problems, and one can be in favor of many pro-US economic policies without giving a damn about Trump either way (that would be me, since Trump is too inconsistent to associate with any one economic or political agenda).
Cass is a strong advocate for specific parts of Trump's economic policies and he regularly praises him. So just because he doesn't mention Trump in this piece, make no mistake about it: Commonplace (formerly American Compass) is a mouthpiece for the type of economic populism espoused by MAGA. People like Cass attempt to add an intellectual veneer on top of Trump's utter incoherence while they avert their eyes from the rampant corruption and cruelty of his other actions. Cass knows - for example - that if he were to write about how Trump's crypto grifts undermine the very premise of economic populism that he'd become persona non grata in the world of MAGA. So instead he pretends that these unsavory things aren't happening and MAGA's economic populism is really about solving problems and strengthening the U.S economy overall.
But it doesn't work that way: the grift and the corruption are part of the package. You're either okay with it or you're not. Cass's silence on this is tacit approval he's okay with it, which says quite a bit (most of it unfavorable) about the type of person he is.
Thanks for this thoughtful reply - the issues that have brought us to these economic crossroads have been worsening for decades, as I’m sure you know. So it’s shortsighted to think that what’s happening in markets and to workers right now is mainly about “Biden” or “Trump.” Overfocus on political contests of the recent past uses up valuable national energy to solve economic problems per se, and I’ve read many posts and comments, many interviews and podcasts by Cass that are critical of Trump or (most often and best of all) disregard Trump entirely.
The main problem with Democrats is that they see something super obvious - Biden's cognitive decline or Kamala's stupidity - and deny it in a way everyone can see. They can articulate any policy they want, but that's just a red line showing they are clear liars.
The point is Oren is doing the same thing with Trump. Everyone can see what's going on. You can't lie your way to honest policy.
Thanks for reply - am a huge fan! Still wondering about the evidence here. This past Friday re: China making a possible deal with Trump, Cass's comment was "this would be a very, very bad idea," and I've heard many dissenting opinions such as this.
Because that is how the Left rolls.
Jensen Huang knows exactly nothing about geopolitics or national/economic security policy.
He is a completely unserious actor in this world of ideas and, best-case scenario, should be totally ignored since his only goal is to maximize profits for his company.
This is the lens through which his laughably ignorant statements should be viewed. He has no regard for any other consideration.
If the founder of the "new" right-Don, was concerned about China, wouldn't he have rallied the western democracies to confront them jointly instead of driving our friends away? Wouldn't he have implemented the Tik Tok legislation as passed instead of flip flopping after meeting with his billionaire mega donor Jeff Yass?
Perhaps Oren needs to acknowledge the reason the billionaire tech bros were given the prime seating at Don's inaugural? The same reason the bros frequent the White House bearing gifts for the dear leader...
Meanwhile, maybe he should rethink his campaign to be the next Kevin Hassett. I understand he wants to be one of the big boys like Jason and Larry, but does he really want to regularly humiliate himself on national tv like Kev? Isn't it safer to continue trying to retrofit an intellectual framework around Don's incoherent actions from the comfort of the AC offices? As long as he hews to the company line, Don will let him keep the tax status:)
Speaking of incoherent, make sure to watch Don's lecture to the military this week, it's terrifying. Watch all of it. He's making Joepa look lucid.
There are no western democracies. Europe is an authoritarian mess and our friends are trying to drag us into a war with Russia.
Hmm, in my travels I’ve observed a different reality I guess. Would you consider the US an “authoritarian mess”, since Don’s actions are straight from the historical authoritarian playbook?
Recent history shows the Chinese Communist Party is treacherous, duplicitous, and cunning. They play on the hopes of prospective partners/investors with the lure of a market of, supposedly, 1.4 billion consumers, as well as their technological prowess. 1.4 billion people is one of those factoids that everybody just knows, but which can't really stand up to close scrutiny. China's reputation as a master of technology is based on their adoption of purloined intellectual property.
China suitors are like the wife of a two-timing husband who sees the clear signs of his failure to keep his vows, but ignores or rationalizes them, refusing to see them in the cold light of day.
There are numerous examples. One of the biggest is the "one country, two systems" promise China made to persuade the UK to surrender control of Hong Kong. That fell by the wayside years ago.
And no one raised any objections. It just happened. And life goes on as if nothing changed.
If you can see farther than these tech gurus, and I don’t say you can’t, shorting their stock might prove rewarding
I think Noah Smith said the wirld will be ruled by those who control the electric stack. He defines this stack as batteries, electric motors, and power electronics. These are the core components of not just EVs but importantly military drones. I believe he is correct and China is trying to achieve dominance in all three. We ignore this at our own peril.
I want to control the fossil fuel stack. Without that (or nuclear) electricity is a niche market which admittedly does include drones.
I worked for General Electric and several other Fortune 500 companies in the 1990s and 2000s. The big shot CEOs of that era sounded exactly like Jensen Huang. Why should we globalize our markets and workforce as fast as we could? The world was flat (ala Thomas Friedman), let's go! That simplistic world view got us into the current trap. God help us should we repeat the same mistake again
Francis Fukuyama was more culpable than Friedman since his thinking led not only to economic disaster but endless wars.
No Big deal! Just because these "tech bros" are gambling with the continued existence of the liberal, democratic order of the whole world who cares, right? Of course we want the guys who brought us lockdowns and censorship over the preceding 5 years to have open reign to build up China in the most important technologies of the future that will decide wars won and political systems around the world. What could possibly go wrong? Isn't blind self interest the BEST basis for foreign policy?
The explanation for his behavior is that there’s a lot of money to be made in China in the short term. He is saying what he needs to say to justify his actions to his shareholders in the United States government. Does he believe it? Maybe, but I suspect you’re not nearly cynical enough about his motivations.
Interesting?
In the early 1900's before WWII and a little earlier even three things were happening that can be properly generalized on:
- The intellectuals and academia loved communism and socialism. Stalin and Lenin were highly thought of.
- The "titans of business" loved Hitler and Mussolini. Great for business and money could be made.
- The common folk, the plain people loved Roosevelt. They trusted him? They listened to him.
hmmmmm just something I think about now and then.
The University = The "New Religion" (religion of nihilism) very close to socialism
Which path will we go?
- Religion?
- Nihilism? which is socialism cloaked? Nothingness
- Transhumanism? digital numbers to track us then the chips will follow? (Tech bros and some girls like this one)
They all lie. No one tells the truth.
Beware - the truth can have you killed very easily.
Charlie - RIP
"He’s a brilliant engineer with the public policy awareness of, well, a brilliant engineer."
Ha! I'm an engineer and I take no offense at that!
"it’s Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, speaking last week in bespoke red eyeglass frames and his trademark leather jacket to venture capitalist Brad Gerstner"
As the kids today would say, OMG.