You need to distinguish clearly between tariff's as a economic policy tool and the insane (and often counter productive way that Trump did tariff's. The two biggest examples are 1)putting a 50 % tariff on Brazil because his coup-bro is being prosecuted and 2) Putting a 35 % tariff on Canada. Note that both of these countries are NET IMPORTERS from the US and HAVE A NEGATIVE TRADE DEFICIT ! It is like guns. They are fine with trained professionals and bad when a screaming 5 year old has one. Perhaps Oren should interview someone with real knowledge of trade and tariff policies. I suggest Michael Pettis, author of “Trade Wars are Class Wars”.
At some point, Oren has to run out of lipstick for this pig. What rational human thinks Don has a plan, at least a plan beyond his latest gas pain induced impulse? Oren reminds me of Kevin Hassett. Make sure to watch Kev humiliate himself on the Sunday shows openly lying about the reason Don fired the BLS commish. It's tortuous. It's like watching Little Marco as he recants everything he's ever stood for-they look like the soul is being sucked outta their bodies. Spoiler alert on Kev, he avoids the real reason-because Don can't handle his economy underperforming Joepa's...such a tough guy.
It would be nice if Don and Oren could at least settle on their goals for tariffs. Is it to raise money to offset their massive deficit spending? To create leverage for better trade deals? To bring back the halcyon manufacturing days of 1970's injection molding plants? We've heard em all...they can't all be true. Please settle on one.
Tariffs won't crater the US economy. International trade is a relatively small part of our economy compared to many countries. US manufacturing, as has been the case for decades, will continue to produce record output while employing fewer and fewer people. Tariffs are just another regressive tax aimed at the working class, like so much of DonOrenomics. How else to explain the wealth transfer to plutocrats inherent in the BBB, the signature economic achievement of the "new" right?
While elites like Oren argue with fellow elites over the modest impact of taco tariffs, the BBB, the degradation of the rule of law, massive deficit spending, the shredding of alliances that could be used to confront China, deporting mass numbers of our neighbors/workers instead of criminals, the defunding of our research/science efforts, the pay to play ethos, all are more important to our economy in the long run. It speaks volumes that Oren remains silent on them-gotta salute the dear leader. But could we at least tariff Russia, Belarus, and Cuba rather than Canada and Brazil (whose only sin is prosecuting Don's fellow coup-plotter)? Taco tariffs are merely Don's latest grift, a tool to enrich the dear leader, a perfect marriage with Don's meme coin scam. You need taco tariff relief? Buy a few hundred mill of my $TRUMP coin, gimme a 747, and build me a golf course...I'll keep hoodwinking the workin stiffs that I'm doing all this in their name. Good luck America.
I gree with both Engineer Guy and Tom High and want to add that 1) investment in and agreement to purchase products from the US is sound economic policy and must NOT be conflated with Trump's tariff chaos of threatening off the wall tariff numbers that mostly have a personal vendetta as a base and 2) Oren, you cannot bash the stock market on the one hand and then, in regards to the benefit of tariffs, say that it is a good indicator.
If you like this tariff scheme so much, perhaps you should explain the effects it’s having on, say, domestic auto manufacturers. With 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, and 25% on copper, it will cost more in just the total tariffs to make a car in the US versus making it in Japan or the EU and shipping it here. Unless Ford can make its own steel, they’re stuck. There is no logic to the plan itself, regardless of how you feel about tariffs in general.
Just a few observations on the latest post. First I must assume that the piece was written before the latest employment stats were released. Contrary to the text, employment is down. Secondly, something I have not been able to glean from this series is, for the lot of blue collar workers to improve, i.e. getting a bigger piece of the pie, it will require the olagarchs getting less. What makes you think that is going to happen? In the 20th century police and national guardsmen shot strikers. Admittedly, that has not happened recently, but the ends they will go to should not be underestimated. Kudos to Sen Hawley for his stand on stock trading by government officials.
have no idea why no one talks about the obvious: tariffs won’t bring jobs back. But for most goods, they will siphon money from corporate coffers into the U.S. budget.
Talk about knee-jerk attention economy!... the "tariffs" haven't even taken full effect. We won't know for months (at least) how they affected unemployment, inflation, etc. So everyone should stop congratulating or self-flagellating themselves. US residents are certainly paying more for stuff; US Steel raised prices because it's now protected by a higher price floor on steel imports; we now find out jobs cratered in the last quarter - but that could be mostly gov't employee layoffs. Take a chill pill Oren, and everyone.
The real damage or benefit is a long way off, but I'm betting on damage and inflation as the accumulation of higher costs on every link of supply chain components builds into truly large price increases. Then again, you can avoid car price rises including 50% steel tariffs and 25% component tariffs by just buying your Mercedes direct from Germany... at only 15% tariffs. This entire process has been rushed, poorly thought out, and mismanaged... but it will take until 2026 to fully prove it, one way or another.
This mirrors a larger philosophical question: "does matter matter?" This question stands behind both theological questions like the Real Presence of the Eucharist and philosophical ones like transhumanism.
Since the Enlightenment, the West's answer to the latter question has generally been "no, matter doesn't matter." However, that is starting to be questioned, as it's clear it leads to some really scary places.
I find it interesting that these 2 questions seem to have moved in parallel since the 1700's.
No, I'm not. The "does matter matter?" question is at a heart of a lot of theology / philosophy debates, and I found Oren's phrasing of his economic question oddly parallel.
Maybe there's no connection. But it doesn't seem like a stretch to me that a society that has spent the last 300+ years diminishing the physical in its philosophy would end up with an economy that diminishes the value of the physical as well.
I just find the comparison interesting. Of course, I teach HS philosophy and economics, so I might well be a hammer looking for nails. :-)
Tariffs ok but problem with detail. Too easy on EU/UK and too hard on India. Has Deep State persuaded Trump that Russia and not China is the danger. EU/UK has been sabotaging peace efforts while India is the obvious counterweight against China.
If I were the permanent boss of childhood education, all computers, tablets etc would be gone from classrooms, and the money saved would go to smaller class sizes, with an emphasis on reading, writing and mathematics. With paper and pencil. At least through middle school. Cell phones banned. Teach kids to think, be able to express themselves cogently and understand numbers and the inevitable multitude of them that will come at them in adulthood.
“ But tariff rates last seen 100 years ago have not crashed the stock market, sent prices skyrocketing and employment plummeting, or triggered costly trade wars. To the contrary, the stock market is at an all-time high.”
This is a classic case of delusional economist SMD - Stock Market Syndrome.
The Wall Street is good for Main Street absurdity.
You need to distinguish clearly between tariff's as a economic policy tool and the insane (and often counter productive way that Trump did tariff's. The two biggest examples are 1)putting a 50 % tariff on Brazil because his coup-bro is being prosecuted and 2) Putting a 35 % tariff on Canada. Note that both of these countries are NET IMPORTERS from the US and HAVE A NEGATIVE TRADE DEFICIT ! It is like guns. They are fine with trained professionals and bad when a screaming 5 year old has one. Perhaps Oren should interview someone with real knowledge of trade and tariff policies. I suggest Michael Pettis, author of “Trade Wars are Class Wars”.
At some point, Oren has to run out of lipstick for this pig. What rational human thinks Don has a plan, at least a plan beyond his latest gas pain induced impulse? Oren reminds me of Kevin Hassett. Make sure to watch Kev humiliate himself on the Sunday shows openly lying about the reason Don fired the BLS commish. It's tortuous. It's like watching Little Marco as he recants everything he's ever stood for-they look like the soul is being sucked outta their bodies. Spoiler alert on Kev, he avoids the real reason-because Don can't handle his economy underperforming Joepa's...such a tough guy.
It would be nice if Don and Oren could at least settle on their goals for tariffs. Is it to raise money to offset their massive deficit spending? To create leverage for better trade deals? To bring back the halcyon manufacturing days of 1970's injection molding plants? We've heard em all...they can't all be true. Please settle on one.
Tariffs won't crater the US economy. International trade is a relatively small part of our economy compared to many countries. US manufacturing, as has been the case for decades, will continue to produce record output while employing fewer and fewer people. Tariffs are just another regressive tax aimed at the working class, like so much of DonOrenomics. How else to explain the wealth transfer to plutocrats inherent in the BBB, the signature economic achievement of the "new" right?
While elites like Oren argue with fellow elites over the modest impact of taco tariffs, the BBB, the degradation of the rule of law, massive deficit spending, the shredding of alliances that could be used to confront China, deporting mass numbers of our neighbors/workers instead of criminals, the defunding of our research/science efforts, the pay to play ethos, all are more important to our economy in the long run. It speaks volumes that Oren remains silent on them-gotta salute the dear leader. But could we at least tariff Russia, Belarus, and Cuba rather than Canada and Brazil (whose only sin is prosecuting Don's fellow coup-plotter)? Taco tariffs are merely Don's latest grift, a tool to enrich the dear leader, a perfect marriage with Don's meme coin scam. You need taco tariff relief? Buy a few hundred mill of my $TRUMP coin, gimme a 747, and build me a golf course...I'll keep hoodwinking the workin stiffs that I'm doing all this in their name. Good luck America.
You’re gonna need it
I gree with both Engineer Guy and Tom High and want to add that 1) investment in and agreement to purchase products from the US is sound economic policy and must NOT be conflated with Trump's tariff chaos of threatening off the wall tariff numbers that mostly have a personal vendetta as a base and 2) Oren, you cannot bash the stock market on the one hand and then, in regards to the benefit of tariffs, say that it is a good indicator.
If you like this tariff scheme so much, perhaps you should explain the effects it’s having on, say, domestic auto manufacturers. With 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, and 25% on copper, it will cost more in just the total tariffs to make a car in the US versus making it in Japan or the EU and shipping it here. Unless Ford can make its own steel, they’re stuck. There is no logic to the plan itself, regardless of how you feel about tariffs in general.
Just a few observations on the latest post. First I must assume that the piece was written before the latest employment stats were released. Contrary to the text, employment is down. Secondly, something I have not been able to glean from this series is, for the lot of blue collar workers to improve, i.e. getting a bigger piece of the pie, it will require the olagarchs getting less. What makes you think that is going to happen? In the 20th century police and national guardsmen shot strikers. Admittedly, that has not happened recently, but the ends they will go to should not be underestimated. Kudos to Sen Hawley for his stand on stock trading by government officials.
have no idea why no one talks about the obvious: tariffs won’t bring jobs back. But for most goods, they will siphon money from corporate coffers into the U.S. budget.
Talk about knee-jerk attention economy!... the "tariffs" haven't even taken full effect. We won't know for months (at least) how they affected unemployment, inflation, etc. So everyone should stop congratulating or self-flagellating themselves. US residents are certainly paying more for stuff; US Steel raised prices because it's now protected by a higher price floor on steel imports; we now find out jobs cratered in the last quarter - but that could be mostly gov't employee layoffs. Take a chill pill Oren, and everyone.
The real damage or benefit is a long way off, but I'm betting on damage and inflation as the accumulation of higher costs on every link of supply chain components builds into truly large price increases. Then again, you can avoid car price rises including 50% steel tariffs and 25% component tariffs by just buying your Mercedes direct from Germany... at only 15% tariffs. This entire process has been rushed, poorly thought out, and mismanaged... but it will take until 2026 to fully prove it, one way or another.
Patience Oren… As you said yourself, most of the tariffs were just implemented last Thursday. The delayed price rise is due to:
• Existing annual contracts prevent immediate price changes
• Companies working through pre-tariff inventory
• Contract amendments require mutual agreement
The likely scenario over time:
• Gradual price increases as contracts renew
• Squeezed margins for manufacturers and retailers
• Cost burden shared across supply chain, not fully passed to consumers
"does making things matter?"
This mirrors a larger philosophical question: "does matter matter?" This question stands behind both theological questions like the Real Presence of the Eucharist and philosophical ones like transhumanism.
Since the Enlightenment, the West's answer to the latter question has generally been "no, matter doesn't matter." However, that is starting to be questioned, as it's clear it leads to some really scary places.
I find it interesting that these 2 questions seem to have moved in parallel since the 1700's.
Dude… you are posting on the wrong thread here…
No, I'm not. The "does matter matter?" question is at a heart of a lot of theology / philosophy debates, and I found Oren's phrasing of his economic question oddly parallel.
Maybe there's no connection. But it doesn't seem like a stretch to me that a society that has spent the last 300+ years diminishing the physical in its philosophy would end up with an economy that diminishes the value of the physical as well.
I just find the comparison interesting. Of course, I teach HS philosophy and economics, so I might well be a hammer looking for nails. :-)
Tariffs ok but problem with detail. Too easy on EU/UK and too hard on India. Has Deep State persuaded Trump that Russia and not China is the danger. EU/UK has been sabotaging peace efforts while India is the obvious counterweight against China.
If I were the permanent boss of childhood education, all computers, tablets etc would be gone from classrooms, and the money saved would go to smaller class sizes, with an emphasis on reading, writing and mathematics. With paper and pencil. At least through middle school. Cell phones banned. Teach kids to think, be able to express themselves cogently and understand numbers and the inevitable multitude of them that will come at them in adulthood.
“ But tariff rates last seen 100 years ago have not crashed the stock market, sent prices skyrocketing and employment plummeting, or triggered costly trade wars. To the contrary, the stock market is at an all-time high.”
This is a classic case of delusional economist SMD - Stock Market Syndrome.
The Wall Street is good for Main Street absurdity.