Really insightful breakdown of how maximum pressure can backfire. The parallel between Guaidó's failed legitimacy and the broader lessons from Iraq/Libya is spot-on, especially how external backing can actualy undermine domestic credibility. I saw something similar play out with business turnarounds where outside consultants loose buy-in from internal teams. The risk of climbing that escalatory ladder without clear off-ramps seems like the core danger here.
I certainly don't want another war but Trump's methods involve rhetoric and limited strikes rather than boots on the ground. He always refuses to take military action of the table but compared to his predecessors has made limited use of it. Biggest deal was the strike on Iran and that probably prevented Israeli action that would have been a lot messier.
For him to set back their program with a bloodless strike .. and then allow (out loud!) Iran to make a bloodless symbolic strike back against a US military asset .. caused me to forgive much else. I doubt any politician could have pulled that off (and no actual politician thinks out loud).
Validated! Mission accomplished .. again - no war, no casualties. Ding Dong the Witch is Dead! (And most important to me - who lived for five years across Bush/Obama in the NMCC basement - aka the Dr. Strangelove room - no feeding the bipartisan forever-war machine.)
I guess it depends on how long it goes on. Venezuela does have a great deal of wealth and a tradition of democracy. There a lot of Chavezistas around yet and that could be a problem. There are about 8M exiles and if they come back that could add a lot of stability. But it is hard to make predictions, especially about the future. So I hope for the best and constantly reassess.
I think that’s a hard line to measure. Installing your preferred leader who was democratically elected is getting pretty close to that. Guess we’ll see
Don't really have an opinion about her one way or the other. Don't like stolen elections but we can't intervene every time that happens. Venezuela was once a rich place and has a tradition of democracy so it is possible it stabilizes without further intervention.
Unfortunate choice of words. That phrase didn’t work out so well for Dubya. Republicans have tried to memory hole that calamity but those of us old enough to have lived through it won’t forget.
I fully expect a similar amnesia will hit MAGA once this turn out to be a lot messier than Trump is claiming.
Remember: by his own definition of success that he announced to the world yesterday, this will cost the American taxpayer nothing, and will not require a prolonged occupation.
Unfortunately, Common Place this is where we disagree. I love all your other stuff and would be a republican if your process and philosophy was even close to being followed (but it is not). So, I remain an independent. I can't stand any of them. Especially Barry.
We need to control our back yard from all of the narco countries. If these countries were even halfway honest and not corrupt and run mostly by drug money to the EU and USA. Yes, true, tell our spoiled little brats to stop taking drugs and self-medicating! Easy to say hard to do.
If Mexico, Columbia, Brazil, Venezuela, Honduras, Panama, Bolivia, etc. etc. etc. ran without narco cartel governments then all would be good. But they don't. And they are turning up in our country with all of their money and influence too. As we all know how easy it is to buy a politician here this is an easy task for the cartels to infiltrate and get started here as they are in these mentioned countries.
If they were decently run, we could even have them take over production form China and Asia. Make the Walmart crap there?!
No, we have to protect our ground in our hemisphere and find countries that will work with us or they will be on Russian and Chinese sides as they are doing now. China is killing us. They know how to play us. They been kicking our butts for the last 25 years and even before that it started.
Setting aside the bullshit rationale, are you saying you trust this clown show administration to do regime change in Venezuela? The same administration that just pardoned the former president of Honduras convicted of narco trafficking? Insanity.
The US has been mucking about with regime change in South America since the 50s. We’re on our second or third generation of regime in most of those cases. They all eventually turn against us. You’d think we’d learn. Regime change doesn’t work and it’s none of our damn business. How would we react if an outsider attempted to influence our leadership (oh, wait…). Why bother?
For one thing, it was never our oil. We were colonizing Venezuela to the point they got fed up and kicked us out. Same thing happened to Britain’s empire, starting with our own revolution. People need to learn from history, not repeat it.
The problem with the foreign policy blob in both DC and beyond is the bubble they've built around themselves. Too many people believe the fantasy world they built up in their own head. If only this administration had done this instead, or if that administration had done that. All the while ignoring the actions of the other parties to the conflict.
One of the things that makes Trump better then the average president is that he has far less underlying preconceived ideology to get in the way of making adjustments and even outright switching goals. This has meant seeing things like Afghanistan for the losing game it was. Ironically, this now means seeing a useful reason to engage Afghanistan, not to remake them in our image but to accept them for what they are and see if we can get an airbase in country to better contain China and Russia.
Same thing with Maduro. Trump doesn't seem the least interested in recreating Venezuelan society. He's just interested in getting rid of an a$$hole that works against America and is more than willing to send his own criminals and nut bags to America to wreck havoc. It's in the same vein as pounding Iran. We do a great job when we smack down predators to put them back in their places. It always goes south when we try and replicated some part of our world in theirs.
The problem with this article is that it falls into the same trap of trying to see this conflict within the author's pre-existing ideological bubble rather then see it for what it is.
I still feel pretty good. This is another one of those "Trumps critics take him literally, his supporters take him seriously." I don't see a mass mobilization going on that would be needed to actually run Venezuela.
I'm pretty sure he meant that, he will be getting on the phone and explaining to the new President of Venezuela, what America is and isn't willing to negotiate over, and what the new leaders are just going to have to accept if they want to avoid Maduro's fate or worse.
Again, the man isn't driven by some complex philosophical notion of how things should work. In the long run we need to remake the world order to one that connects trade to mutual defense, rule of law, agreed standards for protecting workers and the environment. Along with robust ways of monitoring and enforcing all the various parts of those agreements.
For now, we just got to get into a better position, and that includes reminding the world how powerful we actually are. Preferable cleaning up at least some of the problems in our own neck of the woods in the process. Taking out Maduro is a win win. Now if we can only keep the foreign policy blob from blowing through trillions of dollars making their friends rich with consulting contracts, while failing to rebuild the schools and hospitals in Venezuela.
Given Trump's record to date, we will probably make money on it. American companies will get back the properties that were nationalized(stolen) and then some. A lot of the profits will either come back here or be made here when that oil is refined.
A growing economy in Venezuela will also mean that the Venezuelan central bank will need to buy more US bonds and hold more US dollars to back the bolivar.
Then, where are all the new oil rigs and farm tractors, going to come from. Those are two areas where the US is still one of the leading suppliers.
There are still plenty of ways this could go wrong. Even more depending on who wins the next presidential. This isn't going to be done and dusted in just three years. That said, we can make out pretty good while helping Venezuela get back the ground it lost by falling for socialism rather then cleaning up the corruption that had stalled out their growth in the early 2000s.
What track record are you referring to? The US added nearly $75B to the deficit in the first two weeks of Dec 2025. Where’s the $$ going to come from to secure and rebuild the aging oil infra in Venezuela?
Cherry picking what facts you want to consider is a great way to secure the walls of the ideological bubble you've built around your ego, but it's never bothered my ego to look at all the facts to see if I'm missing something. We haven't run a balanced budget for the last 24 years. Both sides like to claim it's the other sides fault, then get elected and continue piling up the debts.
It will be private money that rebuilds the oil industry in Venezuela. Assuming that happens. They may be pig headed and choose the follow North Koreas example of how to resist change.
You do know that Trump can't run again. Whining about what he's doing and trying the same old tactics, the same old arguments aren't actually balancing our budgets or stopping nasty corrupt people like Maduro, much less Xi and Putin.
Really insightful breakdown of how maximum pressure can backfire. The parallel between Guaidó's failed legitimacy and the broader lessons from Iraq/Libya is spot-on, especially how external backing can actualy undermine domestic credibility. I saw something similar play out with business turnarounds where outside consultants loose buy-in from internal teams. The risk of climbing that escalatory ladder without clear off-ramps seems like the core danger here.
We need Maduro to do more than cry Uncle .. we want to make him dance and sing "Don't Worry, Be Happy".
I certainly don't want another war but Trump's methods involve rhetoric and limited strikes rather than boots on the ground. He always refuses to take military action of the table but compared to his predecessors has made limited use of it. Biggest deal was the strike on Iran and that probably prevented Israeli action that would have been a lot messier.
For him to set back their program with a bloodless strike .. and then allow (out loud!) Iran to make a bloodless symbolic strike back against a US military asset .. caused me to forgive much else. I doubt any politician could have pulled that off (and no actual politician thinks out loud).
How you feeling this morning about that comment?
Validated! Mission accomplished .. again - no war, no casualties. Ding Dong the Witch is Dead! (And most important to me - who lived for five years across Bush/Obama in the NMCC basement - aka the Dr. Strangelove room - no feeding the bipartisan forever-war machine.)
So far, limited. We have done this before in Panama. Assume the plan is to install the actual winner of the election. My red line is nation building
Trump has said, to the entire nation, that the US is going to run Venezuela for the foreseeable future. How is that not nation building?
I guess it depends on how long it goes on. Venezuela does have a great deal of wealth and a tradition of democracy. There a lot of Chavezistas around yet and that could be a problem. There are about 8M exiles and if they come back that could add a lot of stability. But it is hard to make predictions, especially about the future. So I hope for the best and constantly reassess.
I think that’s a hard line to measure. Installing your preferred leader who was democratically elected is getting pretty close to that. Guess we’ll see
Don't really have an opinion about her one way or the other. Don't like stolen elections but we can't intervene every time that happens. Venezuela was once a rich place and has a tradition of democracy so it is possible it stabilizes without further intervention.
So let’s set the record straight: You do not support further intervention in Venezuela, correct?
Mission Accomplished. No war. No casualties. This President continues to defy all expectations.
Unfortunate choice of words. That phrase didn’t work out so well for Dubya. Republicans have tried to memory hole that calamity but those of us old enough to have lived through it won’t forget.
I fully expect a similar amnesia will hit MAGA once this turn out to be a lot messier than Trump is claiming.
Remember: by his own definition of success that he announced to the world yesterday, this will cost the American taxpayer nothing, and will not require a prolonged occupation.
Good luck with that.
Unfortunate in what way, btw? That is why I chose them.
Who is "MAGA"?
Unfortunately, Common Place this is where we disagree. I love all your other stuff and would be a republican if your process and philosophy was even close to being followed (but it is not). So, I remain an independent. I can't stand any of them. Especially Barry.
We need to control our back yard from all of the narco countries. If these countries were even halfway honest and not corrupt and run mostly by drug money to the EU and USA. Yes, true, tell our spoiled little brats to stop taking drugs and self-medicating! Easy to say hard to do.
If Mexico, Columbia, Brazil, Venezuela, Honduras, Panama, Bolivia, etc. etc. etc. ran without narco cartel governments then all would be good. But they don't. And they are turning up in our country with all of their money and influence too. As we all know how easy it is to buy a politician here this is an easy task for the cartels to infiltrate and get started here as they are in these mentioned countries.
If they were decently run, we could even have them take over production form China and Asia. Make the Walmart crap there?!
No, we have to protect our ground in our hemisphere and find countries that will work with us or they will be on Russian and Chinese sides as they are doing now. China is killing us. They know how to play us. They been kicking our butts for the last 25 years and even before that it started.
Cuba and Venezuela need to go.
Setting aside the bullshit rationale, are you saying you trust this clown show administration to do regime change in Venezuela? The same administration that just pardoned the former president of Honduras convicted of narco trafficking? Insanity.
The US has been mucking about with regime change in South America since the 50s. We’re on our second or third generation of regime in most of those cases. They all eventually turn against us. You’d think we’d learn. Regime change doesn’t work and it’s none of our damn business. How would we react if an outsider attempted to influence our leadership (oh, wait…). Why bother?
For one thing, it was never our oil. We were colonizing Venezuela to the point they got fed up and kicked us out. Same thing happened to Britain’s empire, starting with our own revolution. People need to learn from history, not repeat it.
MBD leave NR and writing in this space now?
Why don't you man up and debate a knowledgable Venezuelan on the topic; your Tucker-Vance-Megyn-Deneen advocacy is flailing.
The problem with the foreign policy blob in both DC and beyond is the bubble they've built around themselves. Too many people believe the fantasy world they built up in their own head. If only this administration had done this instead, or if that administration had done that. All the while ignoring the actions of the other parties to the conflict.
One of the things that makes Trump better then the average president is that he has far less underlying preconceived ideology to get in the way of making adjustments and even outright switching goals. This has meant seeing things like Afghanistan for the losing game it was. Ironically, this now means seeing a useful reason to engage Afghanistan, not to remake them in our image but to accept them for what they are and see if we can get an airbase in country to better contain China and Russia.
Same thing with Maduro. Trump doesn't seem the least interested in recreating Venezuelan society. He's just interested in getting rid of an a$$hole that works against America and is more than willing to send his own criminals and nut bags to America to wreck havoc. It's in the same vein as pounding Iran. We do a great job when we smack down predators to put them back in their places. It always goes south when we try and replicated some part of our world in theirs.
The problem with this article is that it falls into the same trap of trying to see this conflict within the author's pre-existing ideological bubble rather then see it for what it is.
How are you feeling now that Trump has told the entire nation we will be running Venezuela for the indefinite future?
I still feel pretty good. This is another one of those "Trumps critics take him literally, his supporters take him seriously." I don't see a mass mobilization going on that would be needed to actually run Venezuela.
I'm pretty sure he meant that, he will be getting on the phone and explaining to the new President of Venezuela, what America is and isn't willing to negotiate over, and what the new leaders are just going to have to accept if they want to avoid Maduro's fate or worse.
Again, the man isn't driven by some complex philosophical notion of how things should work. In the long run we need to remake the world order to one that connects trade to mutual defense, rule of law, agreed standards for protecting workers and the environment. Along with robust ways of monitoring and enforcing all the various parts of those agreements.
For now, we just got to get into a better position, and that includes reminding the world how powerful we actually are. Preferable cleaning up at least some of the problems in our own neck of the woods in the process. Taking out Maduro is a win win. Now if we can only keep the foreign policy blob from blowing through trillions of dollars making their friends rich with consulting contracts, while failing to rebuild the schools and hospitals in Venezuela.
So then you don’t take him literally when he said this would cost the US tax payers nothing because we will get paid back with Venezuelan oil?
What does taking him seriously but not literally mean in that case?
Given Trump's record to date, we will probably make money on it. American companies will get back the properties that were nationalized(stolen) and then some. A lot of the profits will either come back here or be made here when that oil is refined.
A growing economy in Venezuela will also mean that the Venezuelan central bank will need to buy more US bonds and hold more US dollars to back the bolivar.
Then, where are all the new oil rigs and farm tractors, going to come from. Those are two areas where the US is still one of the leading suppliers.
There are still plenty of ways this could go wrong. Even more depending on who wins the next presidential. This isn't going to be done and dusted in just three years. That said, we can make out pretty good while helping Venezuela get back the ground it lost by falling for socialism rather then cleaning up the corruption that had stalled out their growth in the early 2000s.
What track record are you referring to? The US added nearly $75B to the deficit in the first two weeks of Dec 2025. Where’s the $$ going to come from to secure and rebuild the aging oil infra in Venezuela?
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny
Cherry picking what facts you want to consider is a great way to secure the walls of the ideological bubble you've built around your ego, but it's never bothered my ego to look at all the facts to see if I'm missing something. We haven't run a balanced budget for the last 24 years. Both sides like to claim it's the other sides fault, then get elected and continue piling up the debts.
It will be private money that rebuilds the oil industry in Venezuela. Assuming that happens. They may be pig headed and choose the follow North Koreas example of how to resist change.
You do know that Trump can't run again. Whining about what he's doing and trying the same old tactics, the same old arguments aren't actually balancing our budgets or stopping nasty corrupt people like Maduro, much less Xi and Putin.
Yes, my only option unfortunately. Better than Biden or Barry.