To accuse Oren Cass of having TDS is either ignorant or ludicrous. If there's an overarching focus of Commonplace it's the defense of Trumpian trade policy. I absolutely think there are people who determine their positions by going 180 degrees from whatever Trump supports--I don't dispute that something rightly called TDS exists--but that's not Cass.
I would be 100% on board with Oren's isolationism here, save one thing: Israel. I am unwilling to sit by and let the Jews be annihilated. And that is what will happen.
I would prefer we didn't need the Middle East. I'd prefer we treat it the way we treat Africa -- ignoring it -- and focus on our own hemisphere. But we can't do that because, as Oren says here, the enemy gets a vote. Mullahs with nukes are an existential threat to Israel and a serious one to the rest of the world. Were Iran to test detonate a nuclear weapon, Israel would have no choice but to nuke Tehran. Avoiding the actual use of nuclear weapons is critical. I don't think I've ever said John Bolton's right, but in this case, I think he is.
I very much wish the President had made that case to Congress, but I understand why he didn't. Congress is so partisan now it can't even pass a "don't slice the boobs of teenagers" bill or a "perhaps we ought to know who you are before you vote" bill -- both of which have 80%+ public approval. At a minimum though, Trump needs to make a national address (should have already done it) and make the case for why this war is the right thing to do.
As others here have said, it's too early and to foggy to know for sure, but right now, it looks like Trump's gamble was a decent one.
First of all, if anyone needs protection it’s the Middle East from Israel. Amazing that the country that actually has nuclear weapons, that recently attacked at least 4 other countries and is actively committing a genocide has somehow convinced a portion of Americans that they are the true victims and need protection. Luckily that portion of Americans is rightfully shrinking by the minute.
Please go back to watching MSNBC. Genocide? That population has grown greatly and would be thriving if it would move on and stop embracing being a death cult. Run by a Hamas govt that says the UN is responsible for humanitarian needs of its people while it builds tunnels and a culture obsessed with war. Let’s remember this all started with a massacre of Israelis for no reason than hatred of Jews.
What i don't see is the acknowledgement that Iranian ballistic missile capabilities were approaching the point that the US and Israel couldn't fight them off. Which puts world oil shipping under Iranian control.
This war may well may end up being a miscalculation by Trump - but only if he fails to neutralize the terrorist threat presented by Iran’s terrorist theocratic dictatorship. The argument presented here (that the U.S. can just sit on its ass as terrorists act elsewhere) is nonsensical. The U.S. isn’t Slovakia. Inaction is an action, and an unacceptable one.
A naive isolationist rant. Thank heaven, FDR found ways to provide vital supplies to the Brits and Russia long before Pearl Harbor officially pulled us in. You, in contrast, would have seen the continent sink into permanent Hitlerian darkness......because.....well....it's all so far away........ and.....energy prices will go up.
And, No, I'm not part of the all-powerful Zionist lobby that you and Vance and Joe Kent obsess about.
First, he is universal global genius in everything: economics, global strategy, Japanese diplomacy, Israel vices, neocons, old liberals, and so on. Such people probably exist, and they may be sometimes brilliantly right, sometimes wrong, but their discoveries and errors are non-trivial. Mr. Cass pronounces banalities. Trump with his gang opened "America first" continent, not he. Cass is trying to invade a foreign land.
Second, he simply plays games with reality. Neither Clinton, nor Bush, even not Obama and Trump engaged in building American Empire. Empire means Empire. Cass does not provide a single supporting fact. His post is a rant, an obfuscation. A hooey.
The wheel is still in spin. If this devolves into another nation building debacle a la Bush you will be proven correct and the nation will be harmed. But if is just a punitive campaign to destroy the offensive capacity of what everyone agrees is a rogue state, it is another matter. There is a body of opinion that says at some point Trump will declare victory and withdraw. I am old enough to remember people giving LBJ exactly that advice. He didn't take it. Will Trump? Who knows, certainly not me nor I think you. Our existing alliances, save Israel, are pretty worthless. We do need to figure out a way to get energy to India, Japan, S. Korea and the smaller states ringing China. Steps seem to have been taken with India and discussion is underway with Japan. There is all that Russian gas, oil and fertilizer just sitting there waiting to be used. All we have to do is get out of the way. If Europe and the Anglosphere want to continue their insane war on Russia, let them freeze in the dark. If we do withdraw, Hormuz will reopen probably because Iranians need the revenue but perhaps because the Arabs force it with help from the Israelis or whatever country needs what is inside. Your concern about process is pure Bush and how did that work out. Surprise is much more effective as Trump noted. Britain in its prime didn't worry about process. Before Pearl Harbor became a verb, the term was "to Copenhagen ". So my advice is ignore Trump's bombast and wait. We knew he was bombastic when we elected him and deep down he makes deals.
That was prewar assessment supposedly because Iranian negotiators told that to ours. True? Don't know nor its location. That's not weapons grade but I have read it takes only one more enrichment cycle to get there.
When will you see the light? Trump, his administration, and what he stands for, do not support the America you want. Let’s make a stronger opposition than get behind this farce of a presidency.
Let's make this simple. He was elected to shut down the illegal immigration mess, to cut back on government regulations and the size and waste in government agencies. He was elected to strengthen our military and get men out of women's sports. He was elected because most of us thought the country was becoming a massive "welfare state." And he has accomplished those things and much more, is not frightened by the legacy socialist press, and believes in the American dream (as opposed to the bloated government, massive regulatory, wasteful and corrupt welfare state). Thanks, very much. I'll stick with what he has accomplished. And if you think he's mistaken about military action against Iran, you and I just have a wildly different view of its capacity to export terror and death. You don't have to like his personality; it's a loser. And if you want to rub our noses in every past statement he's made, let's try that with stumbling Biden or lying Obama. (JCPOA, anyone?)
Shocking! Oren musters a criticism of the founder and intellectual lodestar of the "new" right. Hopefully Don doesn't sue, or revoke his tax exempt status...
Meanwhile, predictably, and dutifully, Don's flock miraculously transforms into maga Middle East warriors upon his witless command. Maga shows again it's merely a lifestyle brand, not a serious movement based on any actual policy. Might we dub them, neomagacons?
Meanwhile, I'm stocking up on popcorn to watch JD meet the same fate as every other Don appointee. It's so delicious to watch him squirm as he casts about for his latest beliefs. He's desperate to dump Don overboard, but he knows the dear leader will be none too happy. Sorry JD, you bought the ticket, now you're gonna take the ride:)
Lose this battle (back off out of political fear) and Iran will go nuclear. It will redouble its missile efforts, particularly at the strait. Then what sort of pain can they extract while they return to funding proxies across the region. You can pay now or pay much more later.
Another pundit with TDS that does not see the bigger picture of a world without Iranian terrorists.
To accuse Oren Cass of having TDS is either ignorant or ludicrous. If there's an overarching focus of Commonplace it's the defense of Trumpian trade policy. I absolutely think there are people who determine their positions by going 180 degrees from whatever Trump supports--I don't dispute that something rightly called TDS exists--but that's not Cass.
I completely agree with you, Daniel. I had an onstage "debate" (discussion really) with Oren at Skidmore in 2019 on climate change and climate policy and have saw nothing in him that put ideology over data. https://skidmorenews.com/new-blog/2019/2/13/the-climate-crisis-two-perspectives-united-in-rationality
If anything, this is the first pig from Trump’s pen that Oren *hasn’t* tried to put lipstick on.
I would be 100% on board with Oren's isolationism here, save one thing: Israel. I am unwilling to sit by and let the Jews be annihilated. And that is what will happen.
I would prefer we didn't need the Middle East. I'd prefer we treat it the way we treat Africa -- ignoring it -- and focus on our own hemisphere. But we can't do that because, as Oren says here, the enemy gets a vote. Mullahs with nukes are an existential threat to Israel and a serious one to the rest of the world. Were Iran to test detonate a nuclear weapon, Israel would have no choice but to nuke Tehran. Avoiding the actual use of nuclear weapons is critical. I don't think I've ever said John Bolton's right, but in this case, I think he is.
I very much wish the President had made that case to Congress, but I understand why he didn't. Congress is so partisan now it can't even pass a "don't slice the boobs of teenagers" bill or a "perhaps we ought to know who you are before you vote" bill -- both of which have 80%+ public approval. At a minimum though, Trump needs to make a national address (should have already done it) and make the case for why this war is the right thing to do.
As others here have said, it's too early and to foggy to know for sure, but right now, it looks like Trump's gamble was a decent one.
First of all, if anyone needs protection it’s the Middle East from Israel. Amazing that the country that actually has nuclear weapons, that recently attacked at least 4 other countries and is actively committing a genocide has somehow convinced a portion of Americans that they are the true victims and need protection. Luckily that portion of Americans is rightfully shrinking by the minute.
Please go back to watching MSNBC. Genocide? That population has grown greatly and would be thriving if it would move on and stop embracing being a death cult. Run by a Hamas govt that says the UN is responsible for humanitarian needs of its people while it builds tunnels and a culture obsessed with war. Let’s remember this all started with a massacre of Israelis for no reason than hatred of Jews.
Israel is the only reliable American ally in the middle east.
Israel has traded land for peace multiple times.
“The only thing worse than fighting with your allies, is fighting without them”
- a guy named Churchill
What i don't see is the acknowledgement that Iranian ballistic missile capabilities were approaching the point that the US and Israel couldn't fight them off. Which puts world oil shipping under Iranian control.
This war may well may end up being a miscalculation by Trump - but only if he fails to neutralize the terrorist threat presented by Iran’s terrorist theocratic dictatorship. The argument presented here (that the U.S. can just sit on its ass as terrorists act elsewhere) is nonsensical. The U.S. isn’t Slovakia. Inaction is an action, and an unacceptable one.
Jesus Christ. I found the most insane set of comments to an otherwise thoughtful article I think I’ve ever stumbled across on Substack.
A naive isolationist rant. Thank heaven, FDR found ways to provide vital supplies to the Brits and Russia long before Pearl Harbor officially pulled us in. You, in contrast, would have seen the continent sink into permanent Hitlerian darkness......because.....well....it's all so far away........ and.....energy prices will go up.
And, No, I'm not part of the all-powerful Zionist lobby that you and Vance and Joe Kent obsess about.
I'm extremely biased here, but still, with all due respect Oren, you've missed the bigger picture so badly it hurts... 🤦🏻♂️
Could you explain what our response to learning they have refined 441 Kg of 60% pure U235?
We took care of that in June 2025 as the administration repeatedly told us. Don’t you remember?
I see two big problems with Oren Cass .
First, he is universal global genius in everything: economics, global strategy, Japanese diplomacy, Israel vices, neocons, old liberals, and so on. Such people probably exist, and they may be sometimes brilliantly right, sometimes wrong, but their discoveries and errors are non-trivial. Mr. Cass pronounces banalities. Trump with his gang opened "America first" continent, not he. Cass is trying to invade a foreign land.
Second, he simply plays games with reality. Neither Clinton, nor Bush, even not Obama and Trump engaged in building American Empire. Empire means Empire. Cass does not provide a single supporting fact. His post is a rant, an obfuscation. A hooey.
The wheel is still in spin. If this devolves into another nation building debacle a la Bush you will be proven correct and the nation will be harmed. But if is just a punitive campaign to destroy the offensive capacity of what everyone agrees is a rogue state, it is another matter. There is a body of opinion that says at some point Trump will declare victory and withdraw. I am old enough to remember people giving LBJ exactly that advice. He didn't take it. Will Trump? Who knows, certainly not me nor I think you. Our existing alliances, save Israel, are pretty worthless. We do need to figure out a way to get energy to India, Japan, S. Korea and the smaller states ringing China. Steps seem to have been taken with India and discussion is underway with Japan. There is all that Russian gas, oil and fertilizer just sitting there waiting to be used. All we have to do is get out of the way. If Europe and the Anglosphere want to continue their insane war on Russia, let them freeze in the dark. If we do withdraw, Hormuz will reopen probably because Iranians need the revenue but perhaps because the Arabs force it with help from the Israelis or whatever country needs what is inside. Your concern about process is pure Bush and how did that work out. Surprise is much more effective as Trump noted. Britain in its prime didn't worry about process. Before Pearl Harbor became a verb, the term was "to Copenhagen ". So my advice is ignore Trump's bombast and wait. We knew he was bombastic when we elected him and deep down he makes deals.
Same question. How do you respond to the news that Iran now has 442 Kg of 60% pure U235?
That was prewar assessment supposedly because Iranian negotiators told that to ours. True? Don't know nor its location. That's not weapons grade but I have read it takes only one more enrichment cycle to get there.
When will you see the light? Trump, his administration, and what he stands for, do not support the America you want. Let’s make a stronger opposition than get behind this farce of a presidency.
Never, and you should have someone take a look at that TDS.
This whole ‘TDS’ thing is such a childish response. Just stop.
Let's make this simple. He was elected to shut down the illegal immigration mess, to cut back on government regulations and the size and waste in government agencies. He was elected to strengthen our military and get men out of women's sports. He was elected because most of us thought the country was becoming a massive "welfare state." And he has accomplished those things and much more, is not frightened by the legacy socialist press, and believes in the American dream (as opposed to the bloated government, massive regulatory, wasteful and corrupt welfare state). Thanks, very much. I'll stick with what he has accomplished. And if you think he's mistaken about military action against Iran, you and I just have a wildly different view of its capacity to export terror and death. You don't have to like his personality; it's a loser. And if you want to rub our noses in every past statement he's made, let's try that with stumbling Biden or lying Obama. (JCPOA, anyone?)
Shocking! Oren musters a criticism of the founder and intellectual lodestar of the "new" right. Hopefully Don doesn't sue, or revoke his tax exempt status...
Meanwhile, predictably, and dutifully, Don's flock miraculously transforms into maga Middle East warriors upon his witless command. Maga shows again it's merely a lifestyle brand, not a serious movement based on any actual policy. Might we dub them, neomagacons?
Meanwhile, I'm stocking up on popcorn to watch JD meet the same fate as every other Don appointee. It's so delicious to watch him squirm as he casts about for his latest beliefs. He's desperate to dump Don overboard, but he knows the dear leader will be none too happy. Sorry JD, you bought the ticket, now you're gonna take the ride:)
Paging Mike Pence...
Lose this battle (back off out of political fear) and Iran will go nuclear. It will redouble its missile efforts, particularly at the strait. Then what sort of pain can they extract while they return to funding proxies across the region. You can pay now or pay much more later.