Oren, you're going to lose readers and credibility if you keep making statements like this: "The predicted catastrophic impact of the tariffs was supposed to be readily apparent by now,"
The tariffs were announced April 2 IIRC, then debated and changed over and over, and now, in early August MIGHT be stabilizing. SO, the full impact will not be felt for months, perhaps into next year, given supply chain lags. What we do know is that the UNCERTAINTY of the tariffs just resulted in the worst quarterly jobs report since Trump mismanaged the pandemic. And that's saying something. But again, that could also be federal job layoffs and university researchers fleeing to countries willing to invest in research, and not tariffs. We also saw oligopolistic pricing kick in as domestic producers raised prices knowing foreign competitors' prices would be higher (e.g. steel). You're headed to clickbait territory jumping to conclusions. Why don't you just produce a "scorecard" or Dashboard of the Top 10 things to watch, and let's watch that for 6 months?
I love irony. It's so fitting that Oren recites a laundry list of government stats at a time when Don has just fired the commish at the BLS for the crime of telling the truth about government stats:) Makin Kim Jong Un envious...
Meanwhile, here's my reading recommendation for the week, odd that Oren missed it. Make sure and read the CBO report on the BBB, the crowning legislative achievement of DonOrenomics and the "new" right. It's chock full of non partisan detail on the bill's regressive nature. Rich folk do quite well, workin slobs not so much. Yet, we were assured it was all about the downtrodden workin stiffs... The rhetoric sure sounded good, but when the time for action came, we received the revealed preference:)
As a self anointed champion of the working class, it seems Oren might muster an opinion at some point?
Well, yes, if we completely ignore the composition of current capex expenditures (and the associated bubble that is forming) things do look rosy indeed.
It’s been painful to watch our new American gardeners work at our condo complex, they did a great job but spent 3 times the time, some cannot go 3 minutes without checking the phone. A hotelier told me a policy housekeeper does twice the rooms as an American and never call in. The kids will learn but in the meantime is substitution with domestic labor a productivity drain? Is that what the hotel and country club guys are telling President Trump?
Michael Pettis thinks mercantilism is gone or has been gone? EVERYBODY except the USA and England have been mercantilist and export driven except these two pretty much. To make the world side with us so as not to go communist/ socialist whatever.
And you can see where we have arrived now with 70 years of that economic process we followed.
Academics - get out of the classrooms and into the real world once in a while. It's hard yes but much needed. Most of you are so off base. No street smarts or common sense - stop.
"Keep an eye on… the absurd balkanization of live sports streaming, as the NFL season comes around and viewers discover they have to pay through the nose for countless services just to follow the sport."
Please don't just pick up the complaint of a deliberately "controversial" sports column. If someone already has Amazon Prime for the delivery service, and Netflix for lots of other entertainment, then it's not as if they're having to "pay through the nose" just to watch the games on those sources. If someone has cut the cord and substituted YouTube TV, they already have almost all the other game sources, almost certainly for LESS than they were paying for cable. And if someone doesn't want to pay for ANYTHING, they still have all the games on the over-the-air networks that they had back in the "good old days." So it's almost all free candy. Gimme a break.
I deal in an industry (specialty chemicals) where the time frame between the management commitment to a major project and it being operational are 3-4 years. NONE of my clients are doing anything more than phase 1 studies since early April. With uncertainty and internet rates high, it would be impossible to get management commitment and funding for a real project.
It will be hard to reindustrialize after 70 years of giving the farm away as we have been doing. IF we can even turn this around at all? Our elites make a lot of money overseas and as far as American workers? They could care less. So yes, this all may blow up on us and we will continue to go to 2nd world status as we are doing now.
When the next huge war comes, we will be defenseless, as we can't make anything. A bunch of bureaucratic office workers doing really not much? This is where we have been going and where we are going. If so, Europe don't count on us to help you out, or anyone else. We can't even help ourselves. lol
This write up will draw the trolls like a fly to you know what! lol ha
Hmm. You state "we can't make anything". However, we produce significantly more in manufacturing output than we did in the 70's. By a lot. A whole lot. But, we employ far fewer workers in doing so, and manufacturing's share of the economy has shrunk considerably as the service sector has grown.more rapidly. How would you reconcile this? Maybe we could repeal automation? There was also a time when we moved from an agrarian to an industrial economy, and people were obsessed with "saving" farms. Hang in there, change is hard, and getting more rapid. I'd suggest we seek to lead the economy of tomorrow, not hope to return to the one of our youth.
Oren, you're going to lose readers and credibility if you keep making statements like this: "The predicted catastrophic impact of the tariffs was supposed to be readily apparent by now,"
The tariffs were announced April 2 IIRC, then debated and changed over and over, and now, in early August MIGHT be stabilizing. SO, the full impact will not be felt for months, perhaps into next year, given supply chain lags. What we do know is that the UNCERTAINTY of the tariffs just resulted in the worst quarterly jobs report since Trump mismanaged the pandemic. And that's saying something. But again, that could also be federal job layoffs and university researchers fleeing to countries willing to invest in research, and not tariffs. We also saw oligopolistic pricing kick in as domestic producers raised prices knowing foreign competitors' prices would be higher (e.g. steel). You're headed to clickbait territory jumping to conclusions. Why don't you just produce a "scorecard" or Dashboard of the Top 10 things to watch, and let's watch that for 6 months?
What?
I love irony. It's so fitting that Oren recites a laundry list of government stats at a time when Don has just fired the commish at the BLS for the crime of telling the truth about government stats:) Makin Kim Jong Un envious...
Meanwhile, here's my reading recommendation for the week, odd that Oren missed it. Make sure and read the CBO report on the BBB, the crowning legislative achievement of DonOrenomics and the "new" right. It's chock full of non partisan detail on the bill's regressive nature. Rich folk do quite well, workin slobs not so much. Yet, we were assured it was all about the downtrodden workin stiffs... The rhetoric sure sounded good, but when the time for action came, we received the revealed preference:)
As a self anointed champion of the working class, it seems Oren might muster an opinion at some point?
/CTRL+F "AI."
//zero results
Well, yes, if we completely ignore the composition of current capex expenditures (and the associated bubble that is forming) things do look rosy indeed.
good stuff
reminiscent of old zero hedge...
The real threat is inflation. The 3T hasn't gone away
It’s been painful to watch our new American gardeners work at our condo complex, they did a great job but spent 3 times the time, some cannot go 3 minutes without checking the phone. A hotelier told me a policy housekeeper does twice the rooms as an American and never call in. The kids will learn but in the meantime is substitution with domestic labor a productivity drain? Is that what the hotel and country club guys are telling President Trump?
Michael Pettis thinks mercantilism is gone or has been gone? EVERYBODY except the USA and England have been mercantilist and export driven except these two pretty much. To make the world side with us so as not to go communist/ socialist whatever.
And you can see where we have arrived now with 70 years of that economic process we followed.
Academics - get out of the classrooms and into the real world once in a while. It's hard yes but much needed. Most of you are so off base. No street smarts or common sense - stop.
"Keep an eye on… the absurd balkanization of live sports streaming, as the NFL season comes around and viewers discover they have to pay through the nose for countless services just to follow the sport."
Please don't just pick up the complaint of a deliberately "controversial" sports column. If someone already has Amazon Prime for the delivery service, and Netflix for lots of other entertainment, then it's not as if they're having to "pay through the nose" just to watch the games on those sources. If someone has cut the cord and substituted YouTube TV, they already have almost all the other game sources, almost certainly for LESS than they were paying for cable. And if someone doesn't want to pay for ANYTHING, they still have all the games on the over-the-air networks that they had back in the "good old days." So it's almost all free candy. Gimme a break.
I deal in an industry (specialty chemicals) where the time frame between the management commitment to a major project and it being operational are 3-4 years. NONE of my clients are doing anything more than phase 1 studies since early April. With uncertainty and internet rates high, it would be impossible to get management commitment and funding for a real project.
It will be hard to reindustrialize after 70 years of giving the farm away as we have been doing. IF we can even turn this around at all? Our elites make a lot of money overseas and as far as American workers? They could care less. So yes, this all may blow up on us and we will continue to go to 2nd world status as we are doing now.
When the next huge war comes, we will be defenseless, as we can't make anything. A bunch of bureaucratic office workers doing really not much? This is where we have been going and where we are going. If so, Europe don't count on us to help you out, or anyone else. We can't even help ourselves. lol
This write up will draw the trolls like a fly to you know what! lol ha
Hmm. You state "we can't make anything". However, we produce significantly more in manufacturing output than we did in the 70's. By a lot. A whole lot. But, we employ far fewer workers in doing so, and manufacturing's share of the economy has shrunk considerably as the service sector has grown.more rapidly. How would you reconcile this? Maybe we could repeal automation? There was also a time when we moved from an agrarian to an industrial economy, and people were obsessed with "saving" farms. Hang in there, change is hard, and getting more rapid. I'd suggest we seek to lead the economy of tomorrow, not hope to return to the one of our youth.