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ban nock's avatar

The changes I think will be impossible to predict from here, but only after they have come.

I think that whether something is blue or white collar the easiest thing to replace is what is predictable. An email and an Amazon order both. Facebook is laying off 10,000 this week. I'm betting they aren't brilliant writers of code.

I look at all work carefully now. I doubt the nurse of my most recent Ct scan will be easy to replace, she deals with variable humans all day. Reading the scan I'd think is already mostly replaced by AI and a doctor reviews and confirms. The readings and a detailed write up of findings were a matter of a couple hours. A similar doctor using radiation for treatment costs $2,400 an hour based on the 15 minutes I talked to him.

The talk with the doc I'd think hard to replace. He was giving and receiving specific information and evaluating at the same time. A plumber is not an MD, just the same in watching plumbers I've come to realize they are doing a fairly complex task with many variables that they might not see again for years. Many people can't become licensed plumbers because they aren't bright enough.

Both the doc and the plumber find their work engrossing and stimulating. What is work anyway?

Long ago men were obligated to spend a lot of time hunting animals. The larger the animal the more difficult success, the greater the payout, and the greater the danger. Today some men spend days in extreme environments doing the same thing for enjoyment. I enjoy cooking more than restaurants, is it work?

I think there will always be work, I do hope we aren't forced to do so much of it that it becomes drudgery as many fast food workers will tell you. I like cooking but not two, thirty hour jobs at different businesses to pay rent.

For 35 years white collar has ignored the impoverishment of large segments of the working class, they even contribute to this day by supporting the importation of millions to bring down wages. I really hope this AI brings a realization to college grads that pushing their fellow citizens into poverty was a bad idea.

Brian Villanueva's avatar

I generally agree, but I notice how often in this piece and the quotations that "human beings" are identified as "workers". Perhaps that's part of the problem. Our identities have been bound up in our economic utility for at least a millennium (last names like Baker or Smith are residuals of that.)

The equilibrium between capital and labor has shifted many times, but when capital can BECOME labor instead of employing labor, most of the laws of capitalism go out the window. We will also need to redefine our "self" in terms of something other than economic utility. That will be hard. It will be the work of generations. The author is right -- work is good -- but work doesn't have to mean "that which I must do to eat". My worth as a human is far larger than that. And perhaps, just perhaps, if we can navigate this transition without a Luddite revolution led by unemployed bureaucrats, HR cat ladies, and lawyers... we may get to see that world and the people in it really flourish.

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